That's for the US federal government. Corporations (and other governments) use varied terminology with varied meanings.

 

Two issues are important: does travel return to “normal” and how fast does it do so

zoom need not replace business travel to cause chaos. If it ultimately takes 10% of (high margin) business travel and pushes the recovery out 12 months, that could tip a major into bankruptcy

 

I don't know it 10% reduction equals bankruptcy. It definitely means they will stop hiring and "right size". Whether not bringing in new hires in combination with retirements is enough to get to that proper size depends on which company we are talking about.

 

Probably not, but it does make a fairly significant difference in overall competitiveness of companies based on different business models. A permanent reduction of 10% would be very significant to the companies like AA, UAL, and DAL, (And to a lesser extent AS) which compete for that relatively small but extremely lucrative segment of the flying public. Others, like SWA, NK, F9, and the soon-to-be flying Breeze would be little affected by it. In fact, numerous aviation economists expect the latter group to do better (relatively speaking) in at least the immediate post COVID period in garnering an increased market share of the domestic flying anyway. Losing 10% of their highest profit passengers woukd likely aggravate that even further.

 

1) at some point, it’s that one more thing that gets you. Right now, as the kids say, it’s “all the things”. Not saying zoom will do it alone; I’m saying zoom hurts and it’s not minor

2) as noted above, losing 10% of your most profitable customers is non-trivial

3) even if zoom ultimately reduces travel by 0% it could still cause bankruptcies if companies take two years to try and reject it meanwhile Starving airlines of their most profitable customers for that many more months.

the biggest unanswered question is how fast things come back. Every month longer is more structural change

 

I wonder how many companies are returning to public business travel after covid. Hear it all the time the first thing to go in a downturn is a company’s flight department.

 

High margin biz travelers (I used to be one) are the least likely to migrate to zoom on a permanent basis... high-end sales, deal-makers, and trouble shooters work best in person.

 

All I'm saying is that we are shrinking at the majors. Retiring fleets that aren't efficient, and shrinking the pilot group through retirements and halting hiring. They will come out more efficient in the long run.

You just said that a 10% reduction would tip us in to bankruptcy, and while I know you are saying it is in conjunction with other factors I just don't see that as true. I also don't know who came up with a 10% reduction in travel as a result of zoom, but I seriously question that number too.

This technology has existed for a long long time. I have people close to me who have worked entirely remotely long before this. If you're arguing that being forced to do meetings virtually finally opened these businesses eyes to the fact that virtual meetings are possible, aren't you also arguing that they are ignorant and stupid? That's the only way they wouldn't realize the possibility to do this virtually when it could have saved them millions. I don't buy that, and I think people meet face to face for a reason.

During the AA hiring process you do a video interview first. After passing that, you are brought in for a face to face. They know that small details that make all the difference can be impossible to perceive over a screen, and they pay a lot of money to see you in person.

Long story short, I think they will do meetings virtually for a little while, but once they deem it safe the vast majority will resume face to face interviews.

 

and my key point is that the exact scope of “a little while” matters tremendously. If zoom et al turns that little while from 6 months to a year, that’s a big deal

and no I’m not calling people stupid. They’re quite smart and realize that previous aggressive telepresence was risky because they’d be blamed for the learning curve. A critical mass of business decision
makers have been dragged across said curve and can now exploit it with less personal risk.

 

Not at all sure about this, I think a lot of business travel is forced by the tragedy of the commons everyone would be better of if they all made their presentations on zoom and relied more on phone calls and emails but individually the person going to the client shacking hands and taking them out for drinks afterward or who sends a few troubleshooters over in person after you complain has a huge advantage at least with the current crowd in charge of most large companies.