Originally Posted by point80 (Post 3094644)

I know a lot of people are going to be upset about what I have to say but several UAX carriers are closing going into 2021. TSA numbers today were 26% of last year. Word on the street is UA is planning on giving the rj flying to Skywest, Mesa, and Republic. Air Wisconsin, go jet, CommutAir, and xjet will be closing by 2021. You can be in denial all you want but this is happening.

SK warned that 50 seaters will be a thing of the past. The only 50 seater UA wants in its fleet are the 550s. And out of those 4 companies only one of them (go jet) has them on property. The problem is those planes dont belong to GJ they belong to UA and can be pulled at anytime. Air Whisky is planning on buying 700s and converting them to 550 but have no contract in place. A little too late for UA to save them. Should have invested in newer planes yrs ago. Xjet and CommutAir both fly 145s and xjet has the oldest most expense pilot group. UA has ownership in both companies but is losing more than profiting at this point and just like you should with stocks they will cut there losses.

Currently Skywest runs the west coast with no competition. They own their planes, gates and maintenance. Bc of economy of scale they are able to give UA a discount in flight prices. Its why they are getting 3x the hours from UA than any other RJ at over 38,000 hrs.

In 2nd place with flight hours from UA is Mesa. Obviously most people will point to how cheap they are and race to the bottom and this is true But it is not the only reason. Mesa will be expanding in this pandemic. What people dont know is JO and SK have a long standing relationship that goes back decades to the days of America West. Johnny-O like always has slithered his way into another great situation. After out maneuvering Xjet for 175s by offering to buy them instead of UA leasing them for xjet. Then offering to lease his 700s to go jet to turn into more 550s to expand go jets fleet (all pre covid). JO is reneging on GoJet and keeping the 700s with Mesa to convert to 550s himself. Mesa will be getting 20 new 175s starting in Sep at 2 a month. At the same rate be converting 700s to 550s to open new bases in EWR and ORD with them while the new 175s stay in IAD. Mesas training department is going to be bringing back the furloughed trainees come Aug/Sep and is getting ready for a ramp up. Its expected that UA will be pulling GoJets 550s and handing them to Mesa. JO had also placed a large bid for more 700s to hit the market to expand past that.

Republic is in 3rd place in terms of hrs from UA. But barely behind Mesa. Even though Republic has seen a large reduction in flight hours from UA the expectation is that is mainly due to EWR and international travel. Word on the street is UA will be giving a boat load of flying to Republic out of EWR once international travel starts to return. I also expect them to increase flying out of ORD once other carriers fold that are currently there. I know Republic pilots didnt like hearing 40% work force reduction but I believe when its all said and done it will be closer to 20%. Unfortunately Republic was in the middle of expanding during covid and is way over staffed.

To conclude, there will only be 6 regional companies in one years time. I expect AA will merge two of its rjs and fold the 3rd with Envoy being the name saved. Delta has planned to save Endeavor with a full force effort to give them most of flying. Mesa will renew its contract with AA in Jan but the fleet will be reduced by at least 20-25 planes while expanding with UA and starting DHL express. Skywest and Republic will continue to work for all 3 legacies. And finally Horizon will be taken care of by Alaskan and will be expanding in the place of RavnAir.

Originally Posted by GA2Jets (Post 3094791)

I believe in Air Whisky! They can pull it off im sure 😁

Originally Posted by idlethrust (Post 3094799)

In years past they always managed to pull a rabbit out of the hat somehow and stay afloat. These are different times now and they have a product no one wants . They should have obtained new equipment years ago , reinvested in the company. Maybe too much too late now . Reactive instead of proactive.
There will be some carriers that fall by the wayside ,and a lot of shuffling within Uax. A lot of people will be surprised at who dosent survive the cut .

Originally Posted by GA2Jets (Post 3094804)

I also don't think United is about to get rid of every last single class 50 seat aircraft.

Originally Posted by ZeroTT (Post 3094808)

Why not? And the answer has to do with what works now, not what made sense 6 months ago

Originally Posted by GA2Jets (Post 3094810)

Ok because if that were the case, they wouldn't have flown any 50 seaters when they only had 4% traffic in April. And they wouldn't have leaned in at all in the following months.

Another reason: when you are trying to increase the number of banks at a hub, a good way to start a new bank is by starting with low capacity aircraft then upgauging. Not just adding a new 6am flight on a 737 just because.

Another reason: if you're competing with another carrier with better frequency, you'd rather smaller planes so they fill up and you can have more frequency yourself to compete.

Another reason: small markets not served by ULCC carriers are stupid profitable. Giving those up completely indefinitely doesn't make sense. And serving them with a 550? Maybe but it's not as efficient.

Look I'm not saying ZW will for sure live, and I'm not saying there won't be lots of cuts and broken hearts. But there is absolutely plenty of reason to think that 50 seat a/c make sense going forward.

Originally Posted by terks43 (Post 3094828)

There is going to still be 50 seat aircraft. Difference is they are going to be 50 seat aircraft that United can sell a first class seat on and pocket a couple thousand more dollars on each flight, the 550. In terms of operating costs there really isn’t that much of a difference between the 200 and the 550, and when you turn that metric to profit margins, espically with the first class tickets, it swings in the 550’s favor.

Originally Posted by GA2Jets (Post 3094810)

Ok because if that were the case, they wouldn't have flown any 50 seaters when they only had 4% traffic in April. And they wouldn't have leaned in at all in the following months.

Another reason: when you are trying to increase the number of banks at a hub, a good way to start a new bank is by starting with low capacity aircraft then upgauging. Not just adding a new 6am flight on a 737 just because.

Another reason: if you're competing with another carrier with better frequency, you'd rather smaller planes so they fill up and you can have more frequency yourself to compete.

Another reason: small markets not served by ULCC carriers are stupid profitable. Giving those up completely indefinitely doesn't make sense. And serving them with a 550? Maybe but it's not as efficient.

Look I'm not saying ZW will for sure live, and I'm not saying there won't be lots of cuts and broken hearts. But there is absolutely plenty of reason to think that 50 seat a/c make sense going forward.

Originally Posted by amcnd (Post 3094865)

50 seaters will be around. Just more in a prorate agreement, less in a CPA contract..