You can’t just hand wave away a contract though....
Unless you own/control the regional you’re trying to mothball.

Very true. 10x easier to “Mothball” a regional you have a “major” stake in and pretty much control. Ie own the leases, ect...Then someone you don’t.

Regardless of Regional or major partner.. if your in the bottom 20% your in for a ruff ride the next 5 years. Furloughed or not...

let’s say united wants to kill Air whiskey. They claim a contractual right to cease all flights on 14 days notice and withhold payment based on some breach. It’s tenuous claim but all of a sudden they have zero cash flow. Chapter 7, done.

a contract is only worthwhile if you can fund and survive a lawsuit

I doubt there’s any intent to kill a regional. They are using available resources in a targeted fashion. There’s a plan, but any particular regional isn’t the focus.

there’s no animus, but imagine United finds it helpful to cut all payments to Air Whiskey. They may do it because they can

The creditors in Ch.7 would still be able to press a claim against UA. So UA would either need legit cause or be willing to fight and eventually lose a lawsuit. Hypothetically they might prefer to settle for pennies on the dollar years down the road. But that's pretty Machiavellian.

Folks here are projecting summer 2020 block hours into the future. I’d be skeptical of that being a good way to predict how UAX shakes out. Scope look back, CPA expirations, cost structures, regional solvency, changes after the government cheese runs out, etc, etc will all make the post Oct 2020 world look very different than this summer.

Desperate people do desperate things

Whiskey might not, but the holding company would. The owners of this place would not let their money printer get put down without at least trying a lawsuit.

I think more likely UA would just tell a regional that they are getting the absolute bare minimum block hours allowable per the contract. Because that situation would not be tenable, the regional may choose to close.

Let's say, for example, UA tells GJ that they will only fly 15% of their 2019 block hours indefinitely because that's the minimum in the contract. GJ may not be able to sustain that level of business without any chance for an increase, and may fold as a result. Contract terminated, problem solved for UA.

This would be particularly true for airlines with aircraft on lease wherein the lease must be paid regardless of the aircrafts actual flying activity. The aircraft *must* fly for a chance to break even. That's part of what killed TSA, except it was their own pilot shortage that really limited their capacity to fly, not UA.