The one year look back and fleet size ratios should be kicking in soon. What impact will this have on the various regionals? Is the other shoe about to drop?

 

Depends on the individual contracts and the extent to which major pilot unions can be bribed into scope relief. Prior to COVID, UA pilots were holding the line pretty well. But other things play into the equation as well. The lack of new 50 seaters was being countered by airlines derating the larger RJs into 2 class less than 70 seaters, but will that be economically feasible if business flying doesn’t promptly return? Right now the ULCCs and SWA seem to be leading the comeback, with both F9 and NK already hiring for the new aircraft they have coming in, and SWA has a rumored order of dozens of new Max’s. The legacies probably cannot survive a CASM fight with aircraft that started out as 80 seaters now de rated to 60 seaters against MAX 7s and A319 NEOs.

 

Legacy pilots are not interested at all in granting scope relief. Even people who have been furloughed or might still be furloughed overwhelmingly oppose scope relief.

Pilots know that since international travel will recover more slowly, they're going to need all the domestic NB flying they can get for a while... no interest in giving more of that to the regionals

 

I actually think there’s going to be some take back on scope. My point is the impact should start to be felt soon.

 

I think a further tightened scope that makes profitability untenable would likely lead to something else that would generally relieve scope without labors input or vote.

 

Almost nobody is in a position to tighten scope right now, nor do most pilot groups really need to.

But managers can't take it back unilaterally either, that can come from one of only two places: the pilot group or the BK judge.

 

Define “profitability untenable.”

You are aware, I hope, that there are airlines that do not have affiliated regionals that nonetheless do make a profit? At least preCOVID?

 

“Scope relief” is different from “we just had a crazy year and need a temporary frame shift on how we measure scope”

 

lol yeah man I’m aware that airlines that pay less money and don’t use hub and spoke and instead use focus cities and don’t fly to Europe or Asia don’t use regional jets well aware...

All that is needed is the appearance of insolvency if you can point to a nail in the coffin like a intentionally underfunded pension that must be taken over by the PBGC you can use it. It happens over and over and over again and history will repeat itself again. Tighten your scope in times like these see what you get. I’m not saying loosen scope. I actually think legacies should have one single pilot group just like other majors (but pay b scale for small jets). But what I’m saying is try to tighten your scope with current pay rate at legacies in the current environment and see what happens I do not think you you will like the result. There is a time to take more and now is not that time.

 

That's somewhat true, but even so there's a lot of us who would frankly get triggered by any suggestion of scope relief... many will say just pull NB's out of the desert and use them instead, you can try making a profit next year. It's a hot button for most between ages 30 and 55, and anyone younger who's actually at a major is junior enough to care too.