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Scope impact on regionals

Old 03-15-2021, 06:47 AM
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Originally Posted by mkitrn View Post
lol yeah man I’m aware that airlines that pay less money and don’t use hub and spoke and instead use focus cities and don’t fly to Europe or Asia don’t use regional jets well aware...
Yes. Discount Airline Pilot Guys who crow about their badass scope kind of crack me up. The company gave 'em that scope because they weren't going to use it anyway.

Originally Posted by mkitrn View Post
All that is needed is the appearance of insolvency if you can point to a nail in the coffin like a intentionally underfunded pension that must be taken over by the PBGC you can use it. It happens over and over and over again and history will repeat itself again.
History won't repeat itself as easily as some might think, the BK laws changed in 2007 (no coincidence that EVERYBODY filed right before that went into effect). It's no longer just a an easy trip through the BK drive-through and then back to business as usual... the debtor-in-possession (ie management team) is no longer in the driver's seat. The creditors now have a lot more say in the process, it's easier for them to flush the managers or even force liquidation... whatever they think will get them the most pennies on their dollar.

If the debt's getting wiped out anyway, then the only thing that matters is asset values (planes, gates, slots, GSE, etc) vs. potential future profitability.

Although in this climate, since the fed has already dumped billions into the airlines they would likely intervene prior to a liquidation. But managers can't bank on that because the fed *might* let ONE of the big guys liquidate... nobody wants to go first and press-to-test on THAT.

Originally Posted by mkitrn View Post
Tighten your scope in times like these see what you get. I’m not saying loosen scope. I actually think legacies should have one single pilot group just like other majors (but pay b scale for small jets). But what I’m saying is try to tighten your scope with current pay rate at legacies in the current environment and see what happens I do not think you you will like the result. There is a time to take more and now is not that time.
I don't think anybody expects to tighten scope right now except AS, which will likely enjoy faster recovery due to geography, has an amendable contract and almost no scope to begin with. The company will probably give them the scope they weren't going to use anyway (100 seaters, something resembling industry standard on 70-seaters).

I think where people will dig their heels in is scope relief, temporary or not. Also, history lesson: voluntary contract relief granted post 9/11 was used by companies in BK court as the new baseline... from which FURTHER contract degradations were extracted. May not be wise to set the table for the company's court case.
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Old 03-15-2021, 06:57 AM
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Originally Posted by mkitrn View Post
lol yeah man I’m aware that airlines that pay less money and don’t use hub and spoke and instead use focus cities and don’t fly to Europe or Asia don’t use regional jets well aware...

All that is needed is the appearance of insolvency if you can point to a nail in the coffin like a intentionally underfunded pension that must be taken over by the PBGC you can use it. It happens over and over and over again and history will repeat itself again. Tighten your scope in times like these see what you get. I’m not saying loosen scope. I actually think legacies should have one single pilot group just like other majors (but pay b scale for small jets). But what I’m saying is try to tighten your scope with current pay rate at legacies in the current environment and see what happens I do not think you you will like the result. There is a time to take more and now is not that time.
Au contraire. There is less flying going on right now then there has been for decades. If you aren’t going to take scope back now, WHEN EVER WOULD YOU? Certainly not when the mainline DOESN’T have the capacity to do it.

Besides, some contracts limit scope to a certain percentage of the major narrow body or total flight hours. That scope will decrease automatically. And while I agree that companies can declare bankruptcy pretty much at will (Republic was still profitable the last time they did it to shed their 50 seater contracts) that’s not a good reason to NOT go after reduced scope now. That situation ALWAYS prevails, if management wants to do it. Nor am I against compelling legacies to bring all the flying in house with a B-scale for what are now regional jets for those legacies that actually require small jets feeding their hubs to be profitable.

But again I ask you, if not now, when?
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Old 03-15-2021, 07:06 AM
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Originally Posted by Excargodog View Post
But again I ask you, if not now, when?
Never is a very real option. Bringing RJ's in-house is not something that legacy pilots really care about. They certainly want caps on outsourced RJ's, and it would also be OK if they fly RJ's in excess of scope as long as the excess is in-house.

Mainline pilots are the only ones with the leverage to make it happen, but is that what they want to spend their negotiating capital on?
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Old 03-15-2021, 07:57 AM
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Originally Posted by rickair7777 View Post
Never is a very real option. Bringing RJ's in-house is not something that legacy pilots really care about. They certainly want caps on outsourced RJ's, and it would also be OK if they fly RJ's in excess of scope as long as the excess is in-house.

Mainline pilots are the only ones with the leverage to make it happen, but is that what they want to spend their negotiating capital on?
My personal opinion? Regional flying of smaller jet aircraft is likely going to be decreasing anyway - the first casualty of trying to control carbon release. A220 and 319 NEO service on a less frequent basis will replace higher frequency smaller aircraft and likely a return to smaller turboprops and/or small electric aircraft for EAS and other low volume ops. Similarly, except perhaps for international ops you will see more flights direct to and less feeding of hubs. The quickest way to reduce carbon footprint is to make the system more efficient and feeding hubs - often at right angles (or worse) to the intended destination isn’t an efficient use of fuel compared to nonstop.
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Old 03-15-2021, 08:25 AM
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Originally Posted by Excargodog View Post
Au contraire. There is less flying going on right now then there has been for decades. If you aren’t going to take scope back now, WHEN EVER WOULD YOU? Certainly not when the mainline DOESN’T have the capacity to do it.

Besides, some contracts limit scope to a certain percentage of the major narrow body or total flight hours. That scope will decrease automatically. And while I agree that companies can declare bankruptcy pretty much at will (Republic was still profitable the last time they did it to shed their 50 seater contracts) that’s not a good reason to NOT go after reduced scope now. That situation ALWAYS prevails, if management wants to do it. Nor am I against compelling legacies to bring all the flying in house with a B-scale for what are now regional jets for those legacies that actually require small jets feeding their hubs to be profitable.

But again I ask you, if not now, when?

The rolling 12 months is about to hit and hit hard right when recovery is happening and the majors “need” the regional feed. Are they thinking about this? Are the planning for it? What will that impact be like - or will they get to take a pass on regional fleet reductions?
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Old 03-15-2021, 08:28 AM
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Originally Posted by pangolin View Post
The rolling 12 months is about to hit and hit hard right when recovery is happening and the majors “need” the regional feed. Are they thinking about this? Are the planning for it? What will that impact be like - or will they get to take a pass on regional fleet reductions?
More like how much cash will it take to buy a one year exemption from 50.001% of the legacy pilot group unless I miss my guess.
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Old 03-15-2021, 08:40 AM
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Originally Posted by Excargodog View Post
More like how much cash will it take to buy a one year exemption from 50.001% of the legacy pilot group unless I miss my guess.

Well the poop will hit the fan for sure. Pax numbers are about to explode. I would guess that the airlines ignore it and pay up when it gets grieved. They can't explain to their customers that there is no flight because the mainline pilots won't let regionals take them, and also can't explain why they don't have enough airplanes or current and qualified pilots to fly them while taking money from Uncle Sam three times so the travel system would be ready when demand returned..
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Old 03-15-2021, 08:45 AM
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Originally Posted by pangolin View Post
The rolling 12 months is about to hit and hit hard right when recovery is happening and the majors “need” the regional feed. Are they thinking about this? Are the planning for it? What will that impact be like - or will they get to take a pass on regional fleet reductions?

They are. We are seeing AC swapped from RJ to 319/737. We also have communications from mgmt backing up those points
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Old 03-15-2021, 10:57 AM
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Originally Posted by Excargodog View Post
My personal opinion? Regional flying of smaller jet aircraft is likely going to be decreasing anyway - the first casualty of trying to control carbon release. A220 and 319 NEO service on a less frequent basis will replace higher frequency smaller aircraft and likely a return to smaller turboprops and/or small electric aircraft for EAS and other low volume ops. Similarly, except perhaps for international ops you will see more flights direct to and less feeding of hubs. The quickest way to reduce carbon footprint is to make the system more efficient and feeding hubs - often at right angles (or worse) to the intended destination isn’t an efficient use of fuel compared to nonstop.
Agree with a lot of that, RJ's are not good for an airline's carbon footprint. I could see some reduced frequency in the name of the Carbon God, but at some point I suspect some enterprising major will start using SAF and offer higher-frequency on Very Low Carbon flights.

Hub and spoke will continue for sure... you could probably find 100 people who want to fly between IDA and MLI. Each year. On which day of the year do you operate that flight?

The LCC/ULCC who are doing the direct thing are simply filling in that niche of mid-size towns that can support direct flights, nothing new, it started with SWA. And even then the have "focus cities", aka mini hubs. There's a whole bunch of small towns which cannot support direct flights, and never will. That's what hub n spoke does. Unless the fed is OK with cutting the small towns off. They clearly weren't okay with it last time they granted CARES aid to the airlines.
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Old 03-15-2021, 11:05 AM
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Originally Posted by pangolin View Post
The rolling 12 months is about to hit and hit hard right when recovery is happening and the majors “need” the regional feed. Are they thinking about this? Are the planning for it? What will that impact be like - or will they get to take a pass on regional fleet reductions?
If you’re talking about the rolling 12 months look back with United, that has been suspended while the LOA is in effect. If you are not, then disregard.
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