The head of IATA can say whatever he wants. Doesn’t exempt airlines from supply and demand. Raises will rise when they can’t get enough labor

 

Wages will rise when they can’t get enough labor THEY CAN GAINFULLY EMPLOY. If labor isn’t a limiting factor in being profitable, there is no incentive to raise wages. Delta could probably empty out the regionals by offering CJOs to everybody AT CURRENT WAGES, but why would they? They don’t have the aircraft the routes, or the pax to gainfully employ another 30,000 pilots.

 

gainfully and profitably are separate concepts. They need X labor to be a going concern. Obviously they aren’t going to hire 2X. Majors are unlikely to see pilot shortages. Other areas likely will.

 

a distinction without a difference:

https://ibb.co/WxRRFg

 

Objectively there'll be about 20k retirements from the majors in the next 5 years and there're only about 20k regional pilots. The AF only trains about 1200 pilots/yr, the USN trains even less, and they're already in full panic mode from their own pilot shortage.

Keep in mind that not every regional or military pilot wants to go to the majors (not to mention a fair share of mandatory regional retirements), so where are all of these pilots going to come from? The retirement wave is supposed to go on for at least another 10 years. And even if the majors can remain fully staffed, 40% of all flights in the US (IIRC) are regionals; so whose going to support those routes?

If I were at the top I'd be working with the FAA right now to make some special Airline 141 schoolhouse that could bypass the FAA 1500 hour rule. AF pilots can fly C-5s after 200 hours of UPT (about half of that now, thanks to their 2.0 UPT or whatever), so why not set up a similar program with highly standardized training for the airlines? Maybe if they start working it now, it'd be producing pilots in 5 years when they really need them. A bigger shortage means a bigger lifetime paycheck for me though, so I'll just watch the system implode.

 

They have a sanctioned program in place that cuts offa rather larger percentage of the requirements.

 

The demand for labor at the regionals will be reduced somewhat as airlines phase out the 50 seat aircraft since replacement aircraft are not available. The regional model will be left with a few 550’s for United, and everyone else operating the existing 70/76 seat aircraft. “The pilot shortage is real this time” narrative and shiny jets will attract people to enter this profession just like it always has. Most of us didn’t get into this due to good working conditions all the way up the ladder, we did it because we wanted what was possible if we made the climb.

 

Is that current system flooding the market with new pilots? From what I can tell, it's barely keeping up with current demand and the retirements have just begun.

From a numbers perspective, to become a CFI and get 1,500 hours, you have to train roughly 13 people from 0 through their CPL. That's a very unsustainable pyramid scheme, considering the most popular way to get 1,500 hours is by being a CFI. Going a half million in debt at ERAU will only take you down to 1,000 hours, which still has the same problem, and the Guard/Reserves have very limited UPT slots. I don't see where all of these pilots are going to magically come from.

 

This 100%. For every pilot who completes the hour requirement, at least 3 need to drop out at some point. The training system right now is a pyramid scheme and will collapse. Hopefully to our benefit.

 

Wouldn't worry about that, it's always been that way and somehow there's still a niche for career/professional CFIs.

1. Not all students pursue commercial aviation.
2. Not all commercial pilots pursue airlines.
3. Not all pilots complete training.
4. Pilots need BFRs, IPCs, club/insurance checkouts, etc
5. At some schools, insurance requires dual for some training which is technically FAA-legal to solo (IMC, ME, XC)

Also the *minimum* dual given is nowhere near the realistic dual-given to get most students from zero to CFI.

Also most people start with about 300 hours from their own training, so they only need 1200 hours instructor time (less for R-ATP).

Also most people acquire a few extra hours along the way doing ferry flights, odd jobs, fun flying, etc.