Basically agree with rickair… but

That’s dependent on a robust GA pilot training population and it’s shrinking. The concept of cfi supply exceeding demand isnt entirely fanciful

 

That's true but it does not appear to be happening fast enough to really impact anyone right now.

Worst case the airlines have to pay for time building (assuming they can't successfully lobby the gov to change the FO min experience requirement back to 190 hours).

 

I see what you're saying, but my point was that there'll be a real bottle neck in a few years to get from 250ish to 1,500 hours. Most CPLs with 121 aspirations would probably prefer to fly pipeline, charter, 135 corporate in a Cirrus, etc, but the majority of jobs available for CPLs are as CFIs, so that's why so many people do it. CFIs typically cobble together their hours from #1-5, but that still requires a lot of people who won't make it to the airlines through what is currently the most popular avenue.

1) I think this number is fixed, regardless of airline demand

2) Same as #1

3) Sadly, this is currently how CFIs get most of their hours. Maybe more airline hopefuls would mean more washouts

4) This is a fixed number and just supplements CFI flying, if you want 1,500 hours in <10 years

5) Same as #4


Maybe the 'standard pathway' of the future will be buy a cheap 152, fly it for 1,000 hours for roughly $70k of gas and half an overhaul, then sell it to the next guy, but I digress. The issue is there won't be a huge change in the demand for CFI jobs. If more CFIs are needed to train new airline hopefuls, then what happens to the trainees when they get their ratings and a dozen of them are competing for the CFI job? Maybe a few fail out, one gets a pipeline job, but what about the other 8 guys?


Like I said, if this were my problem and I had the power to make decisions, I'd be lobbying the FAA for a quicker path to get pilots from CPL to ATP, because it's going to cause a shortage further down the logistics chain.

 

Aside from the fact that the 550 is a total joke - kneecapped by scope with its reduced MGTOW - bringing the regional-type flying back to the majors isn’t a bad idea. I know on paper the solution is simple: bring it all in-house. That’s what they keep talking about in endeavor forums with flow and something about a DL contract having 900 rates. Anyway, in practice it would be a nightmare. Onboard the thousands of pilots, majors having to shell out benefits and getting these guys on their payroll (oh the humanity), not to mention liquidating and shuttering the entire regional airline industry.

But in the long run this is ideal, albeit a pipe dream. Even CRJs are getting tired. The DC9s and MD80s were tired. The 717s are looking tired. It was always funny to me back Jen my DTW days, seeing us doing a route on a CRJ and landing at an outstation, only for a DL 717 to push back and fly back to the base we just departed from. I’ve heard all sorts of stories like...Western 727s flying into Butte. And I frequently see a mainline plane show up in places like MFR and EUG and countless other places that usually see regionals.

If we all got got absorbed into majors, I would be absolutely over the moon. I couldn’t care less what I fly, but getting the pay and benefits of a major is what we all want. The future is already creeping upon us and Covid accelerated that. If A220s and EJet E2s could be built fast enough, they could erase the regional game overnight. They could, and they should, even though it’ll never happen. Again I don’t care what equipment I fly, but an A220 has some serious SJS appeal and I’d love it.

Anyway. I agree, the whole 50 seater market is done for sooner than later. The E145s and 200s are next on the chopping block. Skywest might mange to keep a few for their prorate flying to podunk USA, but the rest need to go. The rest of the CRJs are close behind, excluding a handful of next gen 900s that are only a few years old. But when you look at the fuel burn of a RJ versus A220s and the NEOs, there’s a clear winner. You can’t ever really beat the fuel economy of a 25 year old fully-paid-off-years-ago 200 burning 1200 per side, but no one will be sad to see them go. But when you see a CRJ900 burning 1800 lbs/side and an A220 doing similar (based on figures I’ve tried to look up in the past, correct me if I’m wrong), the A220 and E2 just look better from a passenger and an operator standpoint.

 

No. That's where we started from (190 hours total time to the right seat of a jet airliner 20 years ago), and there's a reason for the ATP/1500 hour requirement, history written in blood at the regionals. Foreign airlines still crash narrowbodies and widebodies for the those same reasons.

If airlines need to pay for their pilots to build time, that will happen. Look at the recruiting bonuses they were paying, time building costs are in that ballpark. If they're paying, the airlines could call the tune and specify crew operations to share the time (hood, or FAA add a reg to allow some non-hood shared time in an airline-prep format). Bonus for pilots is that the regionals couldn't eat that cost, it would be passed on to majors who would probably want some control and a good ROI so flow would likely become the norm.

Airlines could run their own academies or more likely farm it out to existing operators... such academies would provide a time-building combo package of dual given and sponsored time building, so you wouldn't miss out on the CFI experience.

But that's all hypothetical, pre-covid I think the problem was not enough commercial student starts, I don't recall there being a problem with rated CPL/CFI's languishing for years unable to build time to 1500 hours. Now some of the entitled crowd might be bummed if they had to hustle or something like that...

 

As long as the airlines pay for it, the problem is solved. The issue isn't hard work, it's piling another $70k (minimum, gas alone) of debt into an already prohibitively expensive profession. Flight school, plus 4 year degree, plus 1,500 hours if you can't get a job has a price tag of $270k. If you're cheap, maybe you can get it all down to $150k. ​​​​​​

 

Is anyone really paying for 1500hrs of time building

 

No. It's a hypothetical discussion. Because there are not a bunch of CPL/CFI's languishing without any means to build time. If the regionals experience a shortage, and that's the bottleneck, then paid time building might become a thing.

 

If the airlines really need to mass produce flight time, single seat electric planes will become viable

 

I was thinking that too. I think they're already viable for some training missions at schools which are large enough to have people in the pattern constantly.

They could also be useful for maneuver work IF a suitable practice area is within 5-10 minutes flight time.