1). Has anyone seen updated tables of retirements with the early outs of covid accounted for? I'm seeing a 20000 over 5 yrs number thrown around.

2). are any regionals struggling for applicants yet? In other words the covid induced glut has been cleared out.

I'm just not convinced it will ever reach crisis levels. It's a damn good job (for the right type of person) and airline funded training is an actionable cost effective measure if necessary, and can be implemented gradually as needed. I've got 1000 TPIC and phone is dead silent. Until my peers at the 3-6 year experience level in 121 start moving on in significant numbers I'm not losing any sleep over it and I'm guessing recruiting teams aren't either.

 

Sounds a little high for the US, but maybe in the ballpark


Yeah they can scale it up or down as needed, and we started to see a little of that pre-covid, B6 and UAL I think had very limited sponsored training programs?

One thing they don't like about doing that is they commit a lot of money to unknown, and typically very young, candidates. They might be able to guesstimate who will make a good technical pilot by testing but it's harder to guess who will make a good employee and represent the company well that early in your life/career. Guess they can always gamble and reserve the right to not employ you in the end, although flows baked into regional union contracts seem to be trending more towards guaranteed employment.

Keep your apps updated, keep pushing, you never know what might trigger their interest and 1000 TPIC makes you worthy of consideration by all.

 

I’m right there with you. Plenty of TPIC, LCA, M.S. degree, extensive volunteer work and I too have not had any luck. My friends without these things have recently heard from United though so there’s hope for some out there.

 

OOfff is an appropriate screen name since you inappropriately attributed the Tu Quoque fallacy...

 

That's depressing! You've definitely got a leg up on me, but needless to say we're both somewhere in that pile of apps, and hopefully not misplaced

 

the machine is running again but not full speed. Lotta cjo’s to clear And they cannot call everyone instantaneously

 

And in some cases the machines are sputtering pretty badly having early retired many of their training cadre and drastically driven up the training requirement by retiring some of their older and more junior aircraft fleet types.

Given that one of the stated purposes of the PSP was to keep people qualified, that’s disappointing. Of course liberal leaves are cheaper than paying for displacement moves, up front anyway...

 

Just as one data point. AA is still trying to requal. furloughed pilots. In MIA there are 100 FO on reserve for the 737. 50 of them cannot be used, they are waiting for their requal.

The rest are flying like crazy.

 

Yes, and Facebook bought REI’s building.Your point is like saying McDonalds bought the burger shop down the street.

 

REI is going to suffer because of this. There's a very good reason that people were working in centralized offices before the pandemic. So-called "infrastructure" was there before the pandemic in the form of virtual meeting spaces. They were used for extremely specific purposes, but cannot replace real face-to-face meetings.

Corporations weren't just sending people on business trips on airlines to waste money, they were doing it because it was more profitable in the long run to send people to physical locations. And no, the "infrastructure" has not evolved over the last year. Until you can physically reach out and shake hands with someone over the internet, it will not replace or even make a dent in business travel long term.

Any corporation that says they are doing away with business travel is either virtue signalling or making very poor future financial decisions based on an unprecedented economic recession.