Regional jets appear on endangered species list
11-02-2005, 10:06 AM
#1
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Posts: 148
Regional jets appear on endangered species list
Last edited by nw320driver; 11-02-2005 at 10:11 AM. Reason: Fixing Link
11-02-2005, 02:27 PM
#2
New boss = Old boss
Joined APC: Mar 2005
Position: Ca B737
Posts: 2,762
Let's hope so. I hate flying on them, they drive down salarys (can't make enough revenue), and train a bunch of potential scabs.
I know, I know, I'm not calling you RJ drivers scabs but the fact is that it is much easier to step in to a MD or Boeing with RJ experience. The only hope for this industry is a severe pilot shortage followed by hardcore work action and strong leadership by labor. We can raise salaries if we stick together and demand pay restoration until they scream.
I know, I know, I'm not calling you RJ drivers scabs but the fact is that it is much easier to step in to a MD or Boeing with RJ experience. The only hope for this industry is a severe pilot shortage followed by hardcore work action and strong leadership by labor. We can raise salaries if we stick together and demand pay restoration until they scream.
11-02-2005, 04:47 PM
#3
Self Employed.
Joined APC: May 2005
Position: Corporate Pilot
Posts: 7,119
RJ's
If RJ's go away there are a bunch of Boeing 757's sitting in the desert. It would be easy to scare up a few hundred pilots to fly them for RJ pay. I don't think the airframe is the problem. I was told recently that Allegiant has been hiring low time pilots to fly the MD80. There are just too many people out there that are willing to do the job at little or no pay.
SkyHigh
SkyHigh
11-02-2005, 05:24 PM
#5
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Boyd's Take on RJs
CRJ: Out of Production
Just Like We Called It
The Boyd Group Fleet Forecasts since 1999 have advised clients - aircraft manufacturers, OEMs, airlines, as well as the attendees at our annual Forecast Conferences - that there was a limit to the number of "regional" jets the US airline industry could absorb, and that there would be an excess of these airplanes by the early 2000s.
Three years ago, we forecast that the end had come for any further large orders for these airplanes. There were more in operation and on delivery than the industry could support, our independent data showed. Add to that the relatively slim economics, tight ergonomics, and what was a propensity for some carriers to treat these airplanes and the passengers they carried as second-class, and the outcome was not in doubt.
Naturally, the usual suspects disagreed. Some forecasts indicated nearly indefinite demand for these things. "Everybody knows," they contended, that RJs are the future of the airline industry.
Actually they're the future of desert real estate. As we pointed out at our recent Forecast Conference, look for around 200 (CRJs and ERJs) to find themselves enjoying retirement over the next three years.
Beginning of The End of The RJ Era. Last week, facing a lack of new orders, Bombardier announced it would end production of the 50-seat CRJ. The stretched versions continue, but even there, the writing is on the wall.
Bombardier is in a very difficult position. They know full well that the CRJ line has run its course. But a follow-on, the 130-seat C-Series, won't be out for at least three and maybe four or more, years. That means there could be a thin period for airliner production coming sometime in the next 36 months. It's possible that the company may address this by offering trade-outs to existing CRJ-200 operators to swap for new 70-seat CRJs. The cabins and the consumer issues are the same, but the operating economics, assuming there are passengers to fill the extra seats, are a whole lot better. This could keep things running at the factory pending the roll out of the C-Series.
The 90-seat CRJ? Forget it. Most major airlines will opt for mainline jets in that category, such as the Embraer 170/190 platform.
Going forward, higher fuel prices, consumer backlash, and other issues will point to slowly reduced applications for RJs.
Just Like We Called It
The Boyd Group Fleet Forecasts since 1999 have advised clients - aircraft manufacturers, OEMs, airlines, as well as the attendees at our annual Forecast Conferences - that there was a limit to the number of "regional" jets the US airline industry could absorb, and that there would be an excess of these airplanes by the early 2000s.
Three years ago, we forecast that the end had come for any further large orders for these airplanes. There were more in operation and on delivery than the industry could support, our independent data showed. Add to that the relatively slim economics, tight ergonomics, and what was a propensity for some carriers to treat these airplanes and the passengers they carried as second-class, and the outcome was not in doubt.
Naturally, the usual suspects disagreed. Some forecasts indicated nearly indefinite demand for these things. "Everybody knows," they contended, that RJs are the future of the airline industry.
Actually they're the future of desert real estate. As we pointed out at our recent Forecast Conference, look for around 200 (CRJs and ERJs) to find themselves enjoying retirement over the next three years.
Beginning of The End of The RJ Era. Last week, facing a lack of new orders, Bombardier announced it would end production of the 50-seat CRJ. The stretched versions continue, but even there, the writing is on the wall.
Bombardier is in a very difficult position. They know full well that the CRJ line has run its course. But a follow-on, the 130-seat C-Series, won't be out for at least three and maybe four or more, years. That means there could be a thin period for airliner production coming sometime in the next 36 months. It's possible that the company may address this by offering trade-outs to existing CRJ-200 operators to swap for new 70-seat CRJs. The cabins and the consumer issues are the same, but the operating economics, assuming there are passengers to fill the extra seats, are a whole lot better. This could keep things running at the factory pending the roll out of the C-Series.
The 90-seat CRJ? Forget it. Most major airlines will opt for mainline jets in that category, such as the Embraer 170/190 platform.
Going forward, higher fuel prices, consumer backlash, and other issues will point to slowly reduced applications for RJs.
11-02-2005, 06:09 PM
#6
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Joined APC: Mar 2005
Posts: 104
Originally Posted by nw320driver
SkyHigh is right. Sad but true.
11-02-2005, 06:22 PM
#7
Line Holder
Joined APC: Mar 2005
Posts: 49
Originally Posted by SkyHigh
I was told recently that Allegiant has been hiring low time pilots to fly the MD80.
Peace
SF
11-02-2005, 08:10 PM
#8
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Joined APC: May 2005
Position: Corporate Pilot
Posts: 7,119
Minimums
Shadowflight
Well I don't know about you, but most of the places where I have been hired I didn't meet the minimums. Most companies will often hire well below their stated minimums for people who can put a foot in the door. I have several ex-coworkers at Allegiant and they claim to be hiring a few low time canyon drivers. I don't know if they meet the 4000 hours but they barley had any turbine time. More than one washed out in training.
Out,
SkyHigh
Well I don't know about you, but most of the places where I have been hired I didn't meet the minimums. Most companies will often hire well below their stated minimums for people who can put a foot in the door. I have several ex-coworkers at Allegiant and they claim to be hiring a few low time canyon drivers. I don't know if they meet the 4000 hours but they barley had any turbine time. More than one washed out in training.
Out,
SkyHigh
11-03-2005, 07:04 AM
#9
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Joined APC: Apr 2005
Position: Glass
Posts: 254
future?
with all of this talk, it is assumed that like everything else in the industry, this wont happen overnight (the exception of course is the hiring process)... with that being said (with whatever validity there is to it), what does this hold for a person like myself who is slowly working the way up to a spot where with only 600TT and 100multi I could get on with expressjet or eagle? does this mean going back to the days of new hires having 2000 hours to be competitive and everyone is on a boeing or bus? the industry is hard to predict, like sky high said, but where do you expect the industry to head for new pilots if RJ's are taken out of the picture...
secondly, and probably more importantly... looking at the numbers, there are A LOT of guys up for retirement in the next ten years... with RJ's out of service (?), will fewer pilots enter/stay in the market, or will they stay in to hopefully snatch up those prized positions currently held by the gray hairs high on the totem pole?
for a young guy like myself, the gray hairs are starting to come quick, and i dont even hold a line yet... the way i see it, the next 5-10 years could be really unsteady
secondly, and probably more importantly... looking at the numbers, there are A LOT of guys up for retirement in the next ten years... with RJ's out of service (?), will fewer pilots enter/stay in the market, or will they stay in to hopefully snatch up those prized positions currently held by the gray hairs high on the totem pole?
for a young guy like myself, the gray hairs are starting to come quick, and i dont even hold a line yet... the way i see it, the next 5-10 years could be really unsteady
11-03-2005, 07:57 AM
#10
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Joined APC: Jul 2005
Position: EMB 170/175 F.O.
Posts: 549
What makes you so special?
They'll go back where they used to be, the TURBOPROPS. What slays me is that these 600TT pilots who think that they deserve that RJ job. All these guys that are out of a job with 20,000 hours, how did they get their start? Some military, but a lot of them came through commuter turboprops. I don't think that because someone puts in a little time as a CFI, they are automatically owed that jet job. It is making new pilots lazy. Honestly, I hope the market for pilots drops off. If there were fewer folks willing to do this job for nothing, maybe there would be a retirement and good pay. As for now, they'll keep beating the pay and benefits down like they are doing with Go-Jet. Just my thoughts, and I didn't even make you pay for them!
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