I'm curious to hear what you guys think about this topic(I saw a thread before but I can't find it, if you were I can get the thread please let me know)
From someone that started flight training mid last year perspective, I feel more 1500hr CFIs are going to ULCC/LCCs because the shine jet syndrome and flying a bus or 73 right of the bet, and I think the regional might not exist in 10ish years or so. what do you guys think about that?

 

If something dramatic happens it could be in 10 months.

Big 4 hiring plans for the year roughly equivalent to remaining regional pilot population.

Something will emerge from the ashes but it’s gonna be an interesting year.

 

It is very interesting and scary at the time, because I was talking to students in my flight school and we are all kind of nervous that once we finish training and build our hours we won't find jobs lol

 

I think it’s the best possible thing for our profession. You don’t have to go back in history very far to reach a point where all jet aircraft, and any aircraft over about 37 seats were flown by mainline carriers. Only about two decades.

That “regional jet” niche was filled back then with similar gauge aircraft such as the DC9-10 or DC9-30, F28 or F100, Bac 111, 737-200. Commuter airlines functioned as feeders, bringing 19-37 passengers into the hubs from small cities that couldn’t support mainline service. But if you took 19 from Altoona and 19 from Clarksburg, and 19 from Williamsport and brought them all into the hub there were plenty to fill an MD80 to Orlando.

Pilots flying those small mainline jets had a mainline seniority number with mainline compensation, benefits, retirement, and quality of life. It was a far better career path for pilots compared with outsourcing all of this narrowbody flying to carriers with substandard (at least prior to the last year or so) compensation and benefits.

When ALPA let the scope genie out of the bottle I never imagined we would be able to get it back in there. Hopefully this is that opportunity and HOPEFULLY we have learned from the mistakes of the past and never again sell scope in exchange for contractual trinkets and magic beans.

 

Majors hiring at all time record rates. And you all are nervous you will not find a job?

The environment will change. They may be few regionals left. Where will the majors hire from?

Before the days of regionals existing the majors hired directly. I know you and others may not believe it, but they did. I remember it well. Part of the purpose of the jump seat was for someone to observe and get instructions from the Captain. In addition to ground school, the majors today have an advantage of simulators. They can be intensified.

Back in the days of the Connie, there were no simulators for the general new pilots. I know, impossible to believe. Even the Apollo spacecraft that landed on the moon was engineering without electronic computers. Slide rules and people were calculators. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5wfrDhgUMGI

 

Even Pan Am did 707 training in the real plane out of Sacramento at night with planes coming in and out of mx.

 

The only people skipping the regionals and going to an LCC are doing that through either collegiate pathway programs or some other cadet program. Most people will still have to go through a regional.

 

I have read about some people buying their own ATP rating and getting hired by an LLC or Acmi, some will even consider you with just the ATP written. The collegiate programs do let you skip this step. The issue is most people would rather have a regional pay for their ATP.

 

I've still largely heard of people going straight from 1500 to the LCCs being a little more experienced than your traditional 1500 hour CFI. Most have turbine time or something like that. I don't think we've quote reached the point where there's a steady career track of Cessna 172 to A320

 

Don’t forget military time, which is worth quite a lot. I have two friends that walked straight into the majors from the military.