AllATP's says you're all gonna get hired next year!


The Majors Are Making Money, So A Pilot Shortage Is Not Far Away!

By Paul Templeton on December 9, 2008 4:52 PM | No TrackBacks



In June of 2008 the price of a barrel of oil began to climb inexplicably from the price range it had occupied for years to over $145 per barrel in July. Airlines in turn accelerated plans to park antiquated fuel-guzzling airplanes such as the MD-88, older 737s and even 747s, and looked for other ways to cut costs.
While their cost-cutting plans were being put into place, the price of oil was already coming back down. Airlines have had to take hits for late ill-timed attempts at fuel hedging, but most of that was in the 3rd quarter, clearing the way for fourth quarter profitability and clearer sailing in 2009. Airlines will continue to charge the fees put place during the tough times. These fees, which once barely offset the extreme fuel prices, are now hugely profitable. As oil prices continue to decline and the economy returns to life, the profit margins of the major airlines will continue to grow.
Over the next year Airlines will start expanding again for competitive reasons and when that happens they will try to go after some of the smaller markets abandoned in 2008, and will avoid the same mistakes made in the past when gas guzzlers were placed on those routes. The Major Airlines will assign that flying to their Regional Airline partners who will fly to those smaller cities in fuel-efficient new generation Regional Jets such as the CRJ-700/900 and CRJ-1000, or the EMB-175 or the EMB-195.
At that time, there is sure to be a severe pilot shortage and the demand for pilots will be very high due to:

• Major Airlines who will begin to hire pilots from the ranks of Regional Airlines as they expand.
• Presently furloughed pilots being hired for lucrative jobs overseas in emerging airline markets in the Europe, the Middle East, Asia and the Pacific Rim.
• An extreme shortage of students presently training for airline pilot positions.

Forward looking aviators who begin to train now will be in great demand when they are ready to join the ranks of the airline pilots who are now flying for Airlines that have emerged from these recent tough times.



Paul Templeton is ATP’s Regional Jet Program Director, and a regular contributor to PilotJobs.com.

 

That's semi-sweet -- don't like all of what I hear in that statement...

 

Care to expand on that? I think it's a very, VERY optimistic view, to be sure. But I think they are all reasonable opinions and statements. Personally I'm not sure that I agree with the last suggestion that pilots who begin training now will be ready whenever the next cycle of hiring comes around (especially if it's as early as this message suggests). I have heartburn about people who believe that 300-500 TT and 100 Multi (if that) are ever going to cut it again in the interview process...

Just my .02

 

Ah yes, have the Regionals fly those tiny hundred-seaters into podunk towns like San Diego so ATP grads can get their jobs at 140tt.

 

I'd like to think that this is true (the hiring part), but it comes from a large flight academy, and is IMHO, marketing. Of course they need to convince potential students that they will get hired right out of flight school.

 

LMAO, totally agree. Why hell, I remember just the other day flying a PSA CRJ-1000 and a republic E195 . Whats next? "Get ready now because by the time you're ready to get out of ATP, you'll be placed straight into this wonderful B787 dreamliner!" (As they show a picture of one with "United Express" written on the side)

 

I did a little bit of my training at ATP and I can honestly say I would not mind if they just went out of business and left future student pilots with the choices that would remain.

ATP is not helping the problems we all face right now. Not to mention they train to pass the checkride and that's about it.

 

No argument on the oil prices coming down, but the economy returning to life? I don't see that happening right now or any time soon. The airlines took a 1-2 punch this year. First it was the oil, now it's the economy. I could reference many articles that say this is only the beginning of a possible long-term economic downturn. Corporate travel is largely expendable and when doing budgets for 2009, I fear many companies will make big reductions in business travel which could have a heavy negative impact on the airlines.

I hope and pray this article is an accurate representation of things to come and would love nothing more than to see things improve around here, but I just don't see the airlines flourishing in a deep recession when many other businesses are struggling. Here's to hoping!

 

Those economic articles ususally say a long recession, but in financial terms, thats Q3 of 2009. Thats when they ecxpect the turn to come. It would be roughly summer or fall, which is what a lot of people are predicting will be the turn for the airlines as well. Like you said, it's all a guessing game and we'll see. Apparently ATP has figured it out though lol.

 

Thats exactly why i didn't go to ATP. It's just too good to be true. Although in my opinion I believe the economy is starting to pick up slightly. But I guess we will find out soon how it will be.