If you think Pinnacle, CHQ, and soon to be mesaba haven't been feeling or will be not be feeling the pain, you haven't been paying attention to the industry other than whats going on with your carrier. Lots of info about Pinnacle, CHQ, and Mesaba pain in several threads on this forum.

 

I know it's a tough environment for everyone right now, but we shouldn't jump to too many conclusions about what will happen in the next few years. We've just gone through the sharpest downturn since the 1930's. That's bound to leave a mark and it has, but what has happened doesn't always foreshadow what will happen.

Most of the forecasts we are seeing now basically assume things won't get much better. In other words, the economy will be static for years to come. That's possible, but how often do things turn out just as they were planned? Not often, I think.

The most negative economist over the past few years was Nouriel Roubini. He earned the nickname "Dr. Doom" because he was so bearish. In late February, when things were at their worst, he predicted a recession that would last 36 months. In other words, the recession would not end until October 2010.

Now, Roubini is singing a different tune. Rather than say the recession continues, he says the US faces the risk of a double dip recession. In other words, even he now believes the economy will grow from this point, but it could slip back into recession if certain factors occur.

I know I took a while to get to my point, but here it is. The economy will drive what happens to staffing levels at airlines. Because the economy is so dynamic and changable, forecasts made today based on models that don't always work well should only be used as a rough guide, if that. Economic forecasts made in October 2007 certainly didn't capture the pain of the last two years so those that predict future pain could be just as wrong.

The airline industry is changing, but when the economy turns so will leisure travel. It's just that simple. People are not going to change their habits. How long did it take for people to start flying after 9/11? In the end, almost everything reverts back to the mean. Travel will be the same.

 

[quote=Truman_Sparks;630447]Why is ASA the only other DCI expected to feel the pain (Comair) of the 50 seat loss? Why not add Pinnacle, Mesaba and CHQ to the list... quote]

While not 50 seaters, CHQ retired all of their EMB135s.

 

Unless the articles that I've read on the topic are wrong, I believe Chautauqua will be running -135s for Midwest Connect after they take over the operation from SkyWest this summer.

 

Paul Krugman (politics aside) has been famously accurate over the years regarding economic predictions, and his long-term outlooks are nothing rosy either. A double-dip is quite possible, now that manufacturing inventory levels have had a chance to right themselves a bit. We are in a 'liquidity trap', where further meaningful interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy are essentially impossible, especially when the lenders are still tight with the money. We are a spend spend spend economy, and many folks aren't in the mood to spend! So goes the economy.

 

I find it interesting that Expressjet got a 3 month contract to do United Express flying in ORD and IAD. It reminds me of our 3 month contract in LAX that Expressjet ultimately got. I wonder if Expressjet is holding down the fort while we get through the "busy summer", then we take over the contract this fall when we're fat on pilots?

I also keep hearing another 2-1 is eminent.

As part of the PBS negotiations, I predict the company takes the remaining 60 furloughable pilots hostage once the "busy summer" schedule ends. This is because the union wants them protected. I predict ASA will furlough them and make the union negotiate them back.

 

Do you really expect them to share their business plan with you before its implemented? That would be unprecedented in this industry. Why tip your hand to your competitors.

Regarding Mesa, they're done for Delta either way. Delta has made it clear that they want rid of them. As for the company as a whole, they're probably done come fall. Their capitalization is so low, they're about to lose their certificate. They're coasting through the summer on high interest short term credit. Look for the biggest implosion since Enron sometime late this fall. That will create a huge vacuum to fill and ASA is best positioned to fill it.

 

From the Mesa thread above:

 

highly unlikely. The delta contract was a mutual decision to end it. The United flying while i am sure it will be up for bid if there is an opening is a complete gamble for the future at xjt. In the short term it is something to do but bringing in a completely different carrier with all the problems of opening a new base, getting crew members familiar with the new way of doing things, and just dealing with yet another lift provider.... too many headaches. look at what happened for the first 6 months when CHQ and CAL started... it was a complete cluster.

 

Does anyone know what kind of attrition numbers we are looking at for the new publication of the seniority list in July? I'm guessing 0-5 but I have no idea.

Also how many of the 80 ended up going to G7? I can think of 4. I thought all of them were supposed to resign when they went there.