From what I have been researching, the country WILL NOT come out of this recession. This isn't your typical economic dip. The economic numbers do not ad up, and we all know numbers DO NOT lie. Right now the government is throwing tons of cash into a Grand Canyon size hole to give the appearance we are recovering. Eventually the bubble will pop again. The economy is directly linked to the aviation business and will not recover until the country does. I think by the time things change for the better, most aircraft will be UAV's LOL (at least cargo), so you will be like me flying a desk!

 

I'm sorry................these numbers are kind of a weak proposal to me. So at the moment we estimate there to be around 7000 "qualified" pilots on the street. And some say that by 2019 if everything stays exactly the same with demand, airline size and seating capacity there should be room in the system to absorb all of the furloughs. So that means someone is going to sit by the phone for 10 years? Phew........that's dedication. I guess I'm the only one that took out a few loans for training.

I can't speak for these guys myself but there are a ton of pilots that are in the military that may one day feel the need to fly for an air carrier. I would estimate (just a guess) that there may be 500-1000 guys that will come out in the next 10 years or so that are quite qualified. Plus, the relentless new students that have a dream. Heck I can't even estimate how many motivated students will be properly trained and qualified in ten years.

Anything can happen in ten years. Re-regulation; system-wide downsizing (we are seeing that now); another 9/11; Big mergers; new found technologies making the need for crews more efficient.

This is just some healthy APC debating. I'm not trying to ruin anyone's dream. I usually see the glass half-full. In this case, if you look at the "Big Picture" and not what you have heard from someone that has something to benefit by saying there will be a "shortage" you may see the glass half-empty. Back when I started flying in 99 all I kept hearing was how there was going to be this huge shortage of pilots in a few years. Sure there was for a little while and then they all got furloughed.

Just my opinion - please don't get offended.

 

Keep your doom and gloom for another forum, stay on topic here please.

Besides.....your lack of faith in the american people is unsettling.

 

Read the entire retirement numbers post please, those retirement numbers only include 4 carriers.

It will not be 10 years before airlines start to hire again, you just wait and see.

 

Maybe you need to read about something called "The Great Depression". I don't see any huge tent city yet.

 

Comair is at 319 furloughed right now with more to come through January.

 

Midwest furloughs are now 400

 

I really doubt you'll see too many NetJet guys looking into working at GoJet or any airline for that matter.

 

For those that missed it.....None of the retirement numbers included these carriers:

 

OMFG.................I said earlier that regionals are not included.