Even more qualified pilots on the street...
11-06-2009 | 06:14 PM
#81
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From: e190
on the original topic: like has been said before there are thousands more of qualified charter crews and corporate departments that were completely dismantled during this recession.
I think the heart of the topic is that even if there is a strong showing of retirements and movement; there are people with 10,000+ hours waiting in the wings to compete for those jobs. A lowly regional FO that was hired in the 1000-2000 hr range and a couple years under his belt is still going to be at a distinct disadvantage. The CFI's today have what to look forward to? hopefully a job at a regional? in 4-5 yrs? and how many more years before they are competitive to apply to a major?
No thanks. There are jobs that are less demanding and compensated a lot better than instructing/banner towing/going broke for 4-5 yrs.
I think the heart of the topic is that even if there is a strong showing of retirements and movement; there are people with 10,000+ hours waiting in the wings to compete for those jobs. A lowly regional FO that was hired in the 1000-2000 hr range and a couple years under his belt is still going to be at a distinct disadvantage. The CFI's today have what to look forward to? hopefully a job at a regional? in 4-5 yrs? and how many more years before they are competitive to apply to a major?
No thanks. There are jobs that are less demanding and compensated a lot better than instructing/banner towing/going broke for 4-5 yrs.
11-06-2009 | 06:34 PM
#82
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Joined: Mar 2009
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If you have been furloughed for a few years, then you have most likely moved on to something else. I would venture a guess that more than 50% offered recall will turn it down.
I do believe the flood gates will open soon enough.
I do believe the flood gates will open soon enough.
11-06-2009 | 07:02 PM
#83
Moderator
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 7,264
Likes: 106
From: DAL 330
The 800lb Gorilla in the room is cabotage, and anything else can also happen. No one can predict the future (OK, maybe Nostradamus) so this type of analysis is basically wishful thinking and there is nothing wrong with being optimistic.
These retirement lists are useful to a point, but they hold everything except retirements constant and just extrapolate the current conditions into the future. Well how long has the aviation industry gone 10+ years without some major upheavals? In the last 10 years we have had:911, two wars, SARS, H1N1, a severe recession, bankruptcies, consolidation, a retirement age change, runaway fuel prices and the next 10 years will probably not be boring either.
I remember about two years ago when the fractionals were kicking butt a pilot posted a very good analysis of how the career compensation was better at Netjets then the majors - it was a good analysis with the exception that it extrapolated the current conditions out over 25-30 years which will usually not work in this industry.
Like I said, this type of analysis is somewhat useful but has some serious limitations. Plan for the worst and hope for the best and always, always have a fallback plan B not related to aviation.
Scoop
These retirement lists are useful to a point, but they hold everything except retirements constant and just extrapolate the current conditions into the future. Well how long has the aviation industry gone 10+ years without some major upheavals? In the last 10 years we have had:911, two wars, SARS, H1N1, a severe recession, bankruptcies, consolidation, a retirement age change, runaway fuel prices and the next 10 years will probably not be boring either.
I remember about two years ago when the fractionals were kicking butt a pilot posted a very good analysis of how the career compensation was better at Netjets then the majors - it was a good analysis with the exception that it extrapolated the current conditions out over 25-30 years which will usually not work in this industry.
Like I said, this type of analysis is somewhat useful but has some serious limitations. Plan for the worst and hope for the best and always, always have a fallback plan B not related to aviation.
Scoop
11-06-2009 | 08:13 PM
#84
On Reserve
Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 14
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so heres my story...i graduated from a great aviation university with cfi/i, agi, igi, etc. im done crying because i never got started with the training date that was originally given to me by a regional (before i even graduated) and never made it to class. i cried for too long and it made me depressed. now all i know is that i love flying, friends, and women...and i have them all in my life right now in some way or another. if any you young guys wanna give up now thats fine with me...just wait to hear my voice greet you once we reach 10,000'...wde
11-07-2009 | 06:13 AM
#86
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From: FAA 'Flight Check'
I have seen most of my generation passed over in favor of younger people who are more flexible and can work for less. Who is to say that you will not be the next generation to get passed over? A lot needs to be considered before trying to project into the future. Optimism is one thing but this is aviation. Hope for the best but plan for the worst.
Skyhigh
Skyhigh
I couldn't help but think of that popular scene from '300' when reading that quote from your post.USMCFLYR
11-07-2009 | 07:44 AM
#87
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From: Corporate Captain
• Keynesian Economics- The GDP is rising mainly because of government intervention at the moment, but rising regardless of the formula.
• This will be a slow recovery. Hours worked need to be replaced to current job holders before employers begin hiring again; i.e. the average work week has been 33 hours over the last year (recall/furlough correlation).
• As companies slowly return back to profitability and growth, their travel requirements will expand.
• As the population increases, travel demand will increase.
• Nearly 8000 people turn 60 each day; if this linear, 8000+ people will be turning 65 each day in 2011. (Age 65 correlation)
• New Student pilot starts have been decreasing (-3350 from 2007 to 2008)
• Multi-class certificates are on the decline: i.e. pilots flying more high performance single engine aircraft.
• Aerospace and aviation typically follows Real GDP by 12-18 months.
• Beyond all of the doom and gloom, The FAA is still forecasting an annual 13% increase in travel demand.
It is feasible that all segments of the aviation industry will recover, albeit at a slow climb. Like someone else mentioned, all it takes is another 9/11 or a rogue nation to launch a nuke, or the next bout of politics or lack of integrity from Wall Street to throw this off kilter. But for the moment, the macro elements as they pertain to aviation signal resilience.
11-07-2009 | 02:41 PM
#88
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Joined: Oct 2009
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From: On The Jumpseat
This has been an interesting discussion. I believe NoHandHold’s optimism is warranted; not just because of the retirement numbers posted, but because of economics, statistics, and demographics. Cases in point:
• Keynesian Economics- The GDP is rising mainly because of government intervention at the moment, but rising regardless of the formula.
• This will be a slow recovery. Hours worked need to be replaced to current job holders before employers begin hiring again; i.e. the average work week has been 33 hours over the last year (recall/furlough correlation).
• As companies slowly return back to profitability and growth, their travel requirements will expand.
• As the population increases, travel demand will increase.
• Nearly 8000 people turn 60 each day; if this linear, 8000+ people will be turning 65 each day in 2011. (Age 65 correlation)
• New Student pilot starts have been decreasing (-3350 from 2007 to 2008)
• Multi-class certificates are on the decline: i.e. pilots flying more high performance single engine aircraft.
• Aerospace and aviation typically follows Real GDP by 12-18 months.
• Beyond all of the doom and gloom, The FAA is still forecasting an annual 13% increase in travel demand.
It is feasible that all segments of the aviation industry will recover, albeit at a slow climb. Like someone else mentioned, all it takes is another 9/11 or a rogue nation to launch a nuke, or the next bout of politics or lack of integrity from Wall Street to throw this off kilter. But for the moment, the macro elements as they pertain to aviation signal resilience.
• Keynesian Economics- The GDP is rising mainly because of government intervention at the moment, but rising regardless of the formula.
• This will be a slow recovery. Hours worked need to be replaced to current job holders before employers begin hiring again; i.e. the average work week has been 33 hours over the last year (recall/furlough correlation).
• As companies slowly return back to profitability and growth, their travel requirements will expand.
• As the population increases, travel demand will increase.
• Nearly 8000 people turn 60 each day; if this linear, 8000+ people will be turning 65 each day in 2011. (Age 65 correlation)
• New Student pilot starts have been decreasing (-3350 from 2007 to 2008)
• Multi-class certificates are on the decline: i.e. pilots flying more high performance single engine aircraft.
• Aerospace and aviation typically follows Real GDP by 12-18 months.
• Beyond all of the doom and gloom, The FAA is still forecasting an annual 13% increase in travel demand.
It is feasible that all segments of the aviation industry will recover, albeit at a slow climb. Like someone else mentioned, all it takes is another 9/11 or a rogue nation to launch a nuke, or the next bout of politics or lack of integrity from Wall Street to throw this off kilter. But for the moment, the macro elements as they pertain to aviation signal resilience.
11-07-2009 | 04:25 PM
#90
Stethoscope
Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 308
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Some of them, not all, would love to see the aviation industry not recover at all. It would help prove their point. Sad.
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