View Poll Results: What will the regionals be flying in 5 years
Scope will go back to 50 seats or less



38
16.67%
Scope will allow more 76 jets but stay at 76 seats



94
41.23%
Scope will allow 100 Seats or less



60
26.32%
Scope will allow 125 seats or less



36
15.79%
Voters: 228. You may not vote on this poll
Will 100 seat aircraft come to the regionals?
#21
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Apr 2006
Posts: 2,750
Likes: 0
From: 737 CA
[edit: delete insult, flamebait] "Mainline" "sold" 70 seat scope during bankruptcy at the same time they ate 40% paycuts and parked 100+ jets, including widebodies. No promises there. Just the facts.
Last edited by TonyWilliams; 08-17-2010 at 05:35 AM.
#22
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 510
Likes: 0
just some perspective - in its heyday ALPA took in 60 mill per year while the airline counterparts were losing 10 mill per day. money talks and the airlines have it. throw enough of the green stuff and things happen.
#23
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Apr 2006
Posts: 2,750
Likes: 0
From: 737 CA
Also, UAL's scope is 70...not 76 seats.
#24
Moderator
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 13,088
Likes: 0
From: B757/767
JetBlue seems fairly impressed with the E190...so does Republic. Delta also seems fairly happy with the E175s they have flying around between Compass & Shuttle...or are they not?
Also, the C-Series is what, 3-4 years out (allegedly)? Still plenty of time for an airline to to evaluate markets and get an order in for some early delivery positions.
As to the OP's question...I sure hope not.
Also, the C-Series is what, 3-4 years out (allegedly)? Still plenty of time for an airline to to evaluate markets and get an order in for some early delivery positions.
As to the OP's question...I sure hope not.
The C-Series is due out several years, but the smallest configuration advertised is 110 seats for the CS100. It's able to be configured from 110-130 seats. I know a lot of guys think Legacy pilots will just sell out more scope for more $$$, but I think they're wrong. The first mistake of not taking the 50 seaters cut deep, and then bankruptcy cut deeper. Now with consolidation and mergers, guys are losing even more seniority and are realizing they'll never hit that 757 or WB left seat. You may argue that this will result in them selling more scope for more $$$, but what has happened is they have finally figured out that the higher payscales are worth SQUAT if they don't protect the seats. High wages are worthless without a place to put your butt.
UAL/CAL is going to happen IMO. I think one of the main reasons the UAL name is being kept is because of our current Commander in Chief coming from a seat in Chicago. Also, Asia is expected to provide a very large chunk of air travel over the next 15-20 years, and the UAL name is better known over there. My point being, there are big scars on the Legacy pilots of today, and the damage has run deep. Short of more bankruptcy filings, scope is staying where it's at. We may even see it tightened.
#25
Moderator
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 13,088
Likes: 0
From: B757/767
The current news is ripe with code shares far in excess of 100 seat jets. Code share will be the new "regional" contract, or any other scheme that gets around scope and puts super cheap pilots in the biggest plane possible.
Too many pilots are the common denominator to low salaries. If the salaries went up, the contracting out issue (by whatever method) will be mitigated. Salaries will only go up when there is a bona fide shortage of pilots who will work for $20/hour.
Quite regularly, there's a post on these forums proclaiming, "I don't care how bad the pay/conditions are, I want to fly for a living", and I'm not convinced that the 1500/ATP rule will have a significant impact overall.
Too many pilots are the common denominator to low salaries. If the salaries went up, the contracting out issue (by whatever method) will be mitigated. Salaries will only go up when there is a bona fide shortage of pilots who will work for $20/hour.
Quite regularly, there's a post on these forums proclaiming, "I don't care how bad the pay/conditions are, I want to fly for a living", and I'm not convinced that the 1500/ATP rule will have a significant impact overall.
#26
Moderator
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 13,088
Likes: 0
From: B757/767
Sorry guys, 50+ seat RJs are not going to continue long for any Regional with a UA/CO contract. Everyone I talk to indicates scope is the #1 issue on the JCBA. Existing contracts will likely run until the expiration date but eventually any 50+ seat RJs will be flown by United pilots.
Ya know, I almost chuckled with you. But then I thought, with so many UAL guys on furlough flying RJ's and E120's for next to free why wouldn't they take back RJ flying? If wages were established that were equal to/better then whats offered to furloughs then why not do it? At least the flying would be done by guys on the mainline seniority list.
#27
Moderator
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 13,088
Likes: 0
From: B757/767
Really? Seems to me they've been crying broke for years. Scope ain't going anywhere. It's sad that so many regional pilots are rooting for further degredation of this industry just to grab a left seat faster.

What most fail to understand is that Legacy pilots are not in the mood to sell scope anymore. Pay rates are worthless if you don't have a job. More and more guys realize this everyday. Do you know how many guys I fly with that look at Compass and say, 'When I got hired at NWA we were operating 170 DC9's, and I held CA in less then 5 years.'? Many have seen the light, and are in NO mood to sell scope for $$$. As a matter of fact, many will demand their wages restored, plus scope restored. Just wait and see. It's happening. DAL is 12,000+ strong, and UAL is gonna be another 800 lb gorilla.
#28
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Apr 2006
Posts: 2,750
Likes: 0
From: 737 CA
Then we can call it the "new old" regional contract! Code share is how regionals started in the 1980s and stayed that way through most of the 1990s. It is not very lucrative to share code, that is why the majors went to fee for departure. Why split revenue when you can have it all? Plus, most pilot groups have domestic code share restrictions in their cba.
Last edited by TonyWilliams; 08-17-2010 at 05:33 AM. Reason: fixed quote
#29
I sincerely *hope* UAL & CAL pilots are able to hold the line on scope, letting the 50+ seat RJ contracts expire and then recapturing that flying for themselves.
Management, of course, is betting just the opposite will happen.
I know there's a lot of ****ed-off pilots at both airlines, many of whom are junior and got there via an RJ and understand why "large small jets" are such a threat...but sorry, there's nothing in the last decade-plus to show me pilots will be united enough (and willing to concede enough negotiating capital) to recapture that which is already gone.
I sincerely hope I'm wrong, for the betterment of everyone's career prospects...
Management, of course, is betting just the opposite will happen.
I know there's a lot of ****ed-off pilots at both airlines, many of whom are junior and got there via an RJ and understand why "large small jets" are such a threat...but sorry, there's nothing in the last decade-plus to show me pilots will be united enough (and willing to concede enough negotiating capital) to recapture that which is already gone.
I sincerely hope I'm wrong, for the betterment of everyone's career prospects...
#30
Moderator
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 13,088
Likes: 0
From: B757/767
I sincerely *hope* UAL & CAL pilots are able to hold the line on scope, letting the 50+ seat RJ contracts expire and then recapturing that flying for themselves.
Management, of course, is betting just the opposite will happen.
I know there's a lot of ****ed-off pilots at both airlines, many of whom are junior and got there via an RJ and understand why "large small jets" are such a threat...but sorry, there's nothing in the last decade-plus to show me pilots will be united enough (and willing to concede enough negotiating capital) to recapture that which is already gone.
I sincerely hope I'm wrong, for the betterment of everyone's career prospects...
Management, of course, is betting just the opposite will happen.
I know there's a lot of ****ed-off pilots at both airlines, many of whom are junior and got there via an RJ and understand why "large small jets" are such a threat...but sorry, there's nothing in the last decade-plus to show me pilots will be united enough (and willing to concede enough negotiating capital) to recapture that which is already gone.
I sincerely hope I'm wrong, for the betterment of everyone's career prospects...
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post




