Yes, but, nothing is going to stop the Legacies from just not doing the flying. They aren't doing it now anyway, they have "sold" all the flying away. All they are doing now is selling a ticket for over 50% of the domestic market. As many people have pointed out before, it does not take a change in scope agreements, all it takes is for the Legacies to sell away the flying or simply abandon it. Delta already said they intend to focus on international flying. They don't care how their passengers get to their hubs, they will work some kind of deal out so it won't be code sharing but in the end it will really be some form of code sharing to get their international passengers to their hubs. I wish it weren't so but how many orders has Delta and United put in for 100 seaters? I hope I am wrong but the big airlines have been getting out of the business of flying people around for money for years now.

 

There are no 100 seaters ordered because there are no 100 seater proven products. The only thing currently available is the E190 or A318 & they're both old technology that isn't wanted. Why would any Legacy take out millions in financing for old technology or the unproven C-Series(paper doesn't prove anything) when they can wait for something better? Truth is they really aren't interested in a 100 seater because there aren't any good ones out there. Codeshare has to be approved by the union, & scope will be tightened. Guaranteed

The amount of domestic feed regionals are covering is already decreasing. Many RJ's and turboprops continued to be parked while not being replaced.

 

I think the amount of feed is decreasing mainly because of the economy not because they are switching that flying back to mainline. It is your contention that once there is a proven 80-120 seater aircraft they will be on the mainline certificate? I hope you are right if that is what you believe. Delta already has longterm agreements with their regional pals for the 76 seater flying, in what ways do you see scope being tightened?

 

Long term? 10 year agreements (give or take), many of which are several years into them. And that "proves" what again, exactly?

As for the 50% of the domestic market arguement, that is 50% of the block hours and 50% of the flights, but nowhere even remotely near 50% of the actual seats/people. Not even close.

As for scope being tightened, while hard scope reversal is possible, I doubt the mainline groups with so many retirees coming up will bargain for it. However expect to see existing limits stay where they are at some places and scope clauses that forbid the renewing old contracts or the signing of new ones at other places.

Bigger RJ's are career killers at mainlines AND at regionals. The RFP system guarantees that regionals can get planes twice or three times their size for almost zero additional pay or QOL other than that which the top of any one seniority list gets when hyper growth is happening (and those days are gone).

 

Translation: Be afraid, be very afraid. My job depends on you being afraid. Are you afraid yet? Booo!

Sorry, not buying it. It's a matter of economics. If pilots in this country were serious about this they'd merge with the regional pilots and kill the whipsawing once and for all. They won't do it. Why is that? Time to put up or shut up because the fear tactics aren't working except those fresh out of flight training.

 

They're being parked because they're old and uneconomical. Meanwhile, DAL 757/767's are coming out of storage, & MD90's are being purchased. These will all serve domestically. The recent sales of Mesaba & Compass allowed the CPA's to be re-written to less favorable terms for the purchasing company. The contract with ASA is done by 2017 I believe. Mesa's flying was eliminated. Delta has even stated pubically that they are reducing the RJ feed and going to bigger airplanes.

If DAL wants 100 seat jets, they will be flown b mainline. You can count in it.

 

A matter of economics is that 50 seaters are becoming much less economical and therefore are being drastically reduced. Don't believe it? Take a look at DCI flying. Mesa's flying....gone. Comair planes being drastically reduced. ASA 50 seaters leaving in a 2:1 deal with CRJ 900's.

No one is telling you to be scared, but rather to understand that the rapid growth experienced by regionals during the last 10 years is over. Don't believe that either? Look at all the regional mergers/consolidation.

 

Regionals won't be disappearing anytime soon. The markets they serve are vital to the survival of mainline carriers for the current period. A workable model would have regionals (mainline feeders) capping out at their current 70-seats (and some 90-seaters) with mainline carriers investing in new startups that will fly the nextgen 100-120 seaters.

I was in Memphis the other day and I noticed the hub was absolutely littered with CRJ-900's in DAL colors. The consolidation is a natural byproduct of their respective mainline consolidations whereby each mainline carrier would like to streamline their regional ops to just 3 or so carriers, so consider this a temporary shakeout. After the consolidation and streamline phase, it will once again be back to increasing the capacity of regional ops not with all that many more aircraft, but larger size.

In 5 years, I doubt many 50-seaters will be seen. It will be mostly 70-seaters in mixed-class configuration with a lot of CRJ-900/E-175's flying mixed class at about 75-80 pax. Then the shift will be to spin these carriers off to the respective shareholders to operate their current networks as stand alone carriers in time for the nextgen aircraft that will add upwards of another 25 seats for about 100-110 seats. Domestic mainline will still be prevelent, but perhaps only about 30% of the domestic market, but mainline pilots and their worthless unions will be powerless to stop the interests of big business just like in the past.

Destiny is all but inevitable at this point.

 

You are assuming the mainlines wouldn't operate those planes. They will. If BK forces the issue again, expect mainlines to negotiate comprehensive B scales that at least guarantee their pilots operate those airframes, regardless of which certificate they are on.

 

No one said to be afraid, except possibly the "regionals are taking over everything in the narrowbody world" crowd, who, if anything, are "warning" with fear about regionals slaughtering the mainline pilot groups with their SJS.

And your fresh from the flight school comment was funny, in an Alanis Morsissette kind of way, because the young bucks are and always have been getting into this business at that level to one day live the "Paris, First Class, International" dream (or the uber stable, good paying SWA domestic dream, or the big money cargo FX/UPS dream, etc).

Bigger RJ's not only takes that away or drastically increases the timeline to get there (if ever) it adds nothing to pay or QOL at the regional level. Even if mainlines agreed to allow that level of outsourcing at the regionals, any regional hoping to get it would have to "deal management an ace" to get the RFP to begin with. IOW do it for little to no extra money. Maybe a few bucks an hour more. Maybe not even that. Get the airframes now and worry about the pay later, but later never comes because by the time it's bigger jet contract 2.0 time, other regionals in the portfolio have them or are getting them and you MUST be one of the, if not the absolute, lowest bidders to get/keep the work.

No one is saying there will soon be no more regionals. Far from it. There will always be a market for SOME 50 ad 70-76 seat jets and props, always. Maybe a few mainlines, like FL, will push the limits (86 seats in order to get holding company scope...something all the rest already have and don't need to compromise for) but look for the current limits to stay where they are at some places and slowly draw back at others. There will still be many, many thousands upon thousands of regional pilot jobs in any case. Mainline retirements will drain the pool of qualified regional pilots (among the other obvious sources) at an incredible pace...think akin to the mid-late 90's boom, and there will still be advancement. The junior will be able to move up, the lifers will be able to ride it out til retirement with their existing pay and QOL largely in tact and the legacy mainlines will still be doing not only international but the lions share of domestic as well, just like they do today.

Bigger RJ's at the regionals is not only not going to happen, but it shouldn't happen either because it guts the mainline and adds nothing whatsoever to the regionals in the long run except maybe a few bucks an hour which will be given up in the next contract once everyone else gets the very same larger, shinier toy on the bock.

As for the economics, look for mainlines to fly that range of seats for whatever they economically need to be flown for. But keep in mind, SWA's 737, NDAL's DC-9's, AT's 717's and JBU's E190's are flying around with mainline pay scales and benefit packages as it is, and doing so quite profitably as you can see. The only thing "revolutionary" in the C-Series is that, if it's everything Bombardier claims it to be, will be it's fuel efficiency and cabin comfort. Being more fuel efficient is hardly something that will force the next gen of what's already flying at mainline to be outsourced for "economic" reasons.