If mins continue to go down, could they hire someone with 250 hours in say July of 2013 and grandfather them in, or will they need to be at 1500 by August 2013?

 

Finally, someone who understands this whole shortage mantra. There will never be a shortage of low-time students. There will, however, be a shortage of pilots who are properly qualified to fly paying passengers and not want to live in their parent's basements until they're 30.

 

Rules say yes but public backlash would still be resonating from the Buffalo crash.

Mins are gradually getting lowered. Kind of like testing the waters before diving in to the shallow end (in this analogy that would be the 250 hour wonders.) Should mins go to 250 tomorrow, theres public outcry for taking 'dangerous and inexperienced' pilots.

You, the commercial pilot, are the commodity. Treat yourself how the market treats crude oil:
There is/are enough to make ends meet right now, but the price is dictated by what will be a couple months and years down the road. Ask yourself if you are worth $18/hour to fly a jet; then, research and dertermine if there is/will be a pilot shortage. Set your price accordingly.

Supply and demand people...

 

What does Piedmont consider "qualified"? I'm at 2,000/100 and haven't heard anything from them.

 

Did you email Bob Trout or do you just have an app on file on airlineapps?

I'm interviewing there toward the end of next month...

 

Emailed Bob. And I take it back, I got a rejection letter yesterday so I guess I did hear from them.

 

Our DO told us that the 1500 hour rule would most likely not be a grandfathered type thing. Keep that in mind when the regionals set their mins. We were told a final ruling was coming in June. From there the plan to get the ATP done for the FO's would follow. (This is why I'm holding off in the short term on paying for my own ATP so I can get out.) I imagine initially the lowest you will see mins get is 500 hours or so. That way you get roughly 14-16 months to get to 1500. As we get to August of 2012 I imagine you'll see 1000 be the walking line, then about 6 months out it'll be hard ATP. They aren't going to spend a bunch of money to put you through class and sim only to fire you in 6 months because you are no longer qualified. Again this is if there is no grandfather. What he did say though that if there was a grandather you dequal the moment you hit ATP mins until you take and pass your ride. They have to pull you off the line and send you in, so either way when you get to 1500 take the ride.

 

That sounds like a tough situation for the regionals, if the economy remains healthy and growing until 2012, the 1500 hour could literally shut the regionals down. I don't know how well that would go over with the flying public.

 

It won't, that's why the 1500 hour rule won't stand. If it does the government will put a lot of holes in the language for exceptions.

 

The information provided to the air carriers and 121 pilots from the FAA says this:

"The purpose of this InFO is to advise air carriers and pilots conducting operations under Title 14 of the Code of Federal Regulations (14 CFR), part 121, of the statutory requirement for all pilot flightcrew members to have or obtain an appropriate ATP certificate by August 2, 2013."

"Though the FAA may propose alternative hour requirements for a restricted privileges ATP, the Public Law does not include grandfathering provisions for current pilot flightcrew members who hold commercial pilot certificates."

So I agree with slumav505, less than 500 TT at the regionals may be in the ballpark for the next year or so. As life goes on towards August 2012, 1000 hours of TT will eventually become the hard minimum; followed shortly thereafter by requiring the ATP at the interview.

As the FAA information says, there are no grandfathering provisions for commercial pilot certificates in the public law. Requiring an ATP certificate for 121 operations will not change, the only option would be for the FAA to propose alternative hour requirements (less than 1500) for a restricted privileges ATP. Given the increased time that it takes the government to get something accomplished; I don't see the FAA taking action on a "restricted privileges ATP" any time prior to August 2013, when this law takes effect.