I think shrinkage, consolidation and larger airframes will help but I don't see the companies I mentioned having 50% fewer airframes in 13 years. A Cessna 172 rents for $100/hour minus fuel and instructor. Throw in the new ATP requirements for 121 carriers and I just don't see regional airlines existing in their current form in 10 years.

 

I think it depends upon what you consider mainline. I forsee more outsourcing and larger RJs. And we're all screwed if cabotage goes away and foriegn airlines are allowed to fly within the US.

 

No, they won't.

There will be no shortage of "qualified" (simply meaning 1000 TPIC) pilots seeking those top jobs, and those employers will have their pick of employees from that candidate pool. For second & third tier jobs that offer lesser compensation, benefits and QOL...they will be the ones that will face adaptation.

There will be no pilot shortage. What there *may* be is a shortage of pilots willing to work for the compensation & lifestyle offered by regional airlines and bottom-tier LCCs.

 

Some people are dead-set in saying that demand will increase an extreme amount due to population increases, and while I see certain markets getting bigger (possibly at the expense of others), I don't see this being sustainable in terms of resources and cost. Just think about media and teleconfrencing technologies and how far those have advanced. You don't need to "fly out" and see people or have meetings all over the world, these days you can do it without spending 2K on an airline ticket for every employee that needs to go every time. Like it or not, there will probably be less business demand for air travel in the future as technology improves. Aviation has a hard enough time competing with a prius that can take a family 3 states away and back for $75 in gas at 3.75/g. That's not to say that there won't be demand, but as it should be, it will only be the people that can really afford it and are doing it for the time/convenience. The airline industry has been broken for quite a few years now with the explosion of low-cost carriers and regionals that will "do it all for less" and treat their employees like crap. Maybe we are starting to see things turn around, but in the future that is likely to mean less jobs, or at least not some huge "hiring" frenzy. Somehow airlines would have to become many times more profitable for that to happen, and they aren't even holding their own right now.

 

I agree...I don't think they will have 50% fewer airframes, however I do think they will combat employee cost, fuel etc with some consolidation and cut service frequency using larger frames. I also totally agree the regional airline as we know it will not exist, the Buisness model doesn't work unless the airlines can figure out a way to get the public to pay more per seat.

I want nothing more than there to be a pilot shortage and for pilots to take back just a small amount of what we have lost over the last 15 years or so. However I have been around / in this Buisness a long time and management always seems to find a way around improving or even maintaining a certain standard for their pilots. I wouldn't be surprised to see them to it again.

 

Massive pilot shortage coming. Foreign pilots are already in short supply overseas They will not be flying our aircraft anytime soon.

New requirements for co-pilots will accelerate the shortage.

National flight academys will be contracted to train our replacements.

Even if a major or two go away, the seat shortage will create tremendous demand and survivors will thrive until competitors enter the market. Some airlines will grow rapidly to fill the void.

Long trem: I think it looks good for our industry.
Short term: More turmoil for families and pilots.

Or not.

 

Your missing...

A. Cabotage
B. Age 67/70 is the new 65.
C. $150 barrel oil
D. Global financial meltdown
E. consolidation
F. MPL
G. Numerous other things that could screw us
H. All of the above?

 

You guys are so accustomed to being pessimistic and negative. Airline pilot hiring boom/bust is a part of our industry, just ask anyone hired in the 1990's or prior.. you threw out your resume, they all wanted to hire you, and you picked which company to work for (hopefully you didn't choose TWA or US Air.)

 

there have always been times of hiring and stagnation.... hell I know guys hired in the early 70s who spent more than half a career...18 years actually sitting sideways..... I think the next 10 or 15 years will be interesting to say the least.

 

A. Probably won't happen due to political heat
B. Took forever to go to 65. Could go to 67 but I doubt 70
C. Definetly a possibility but that is a level playing field and cost will be passed on.
D. Meh, you got to keep planning for the future.
E. People still gotta fly. Number of seats will grow.
F. Ab ibnitio? Going to have to happen.
G. Well sure.
H. Or none.