What am I missing?
 

I know this topic has been discussed many times. Either I'm missing something or the magnitude is being underestimated. I'm talking about age 65 retirements. Using data easily found on APC I turned up the following combined retirement numbers just for American, Delta, USAirways, UAL and Southwest:

2012 64
2013 937
2014 1,198
2015 1,309
2016 1,423
2017 1,558
2018 1,670
2019 1,881
2020 2,104
2021 2,447
2022 2,276
2023 2,363
2024 2,400
2025 2,348
------------
TOTAL 23,978

There are currently 50,350 pilots total at said companies. So in the next 13 years nearly 50% of these pilots are scheduled to retire. Given the flight from the industry, decades low number of commercial pilot certificates being issued and higher retention of military pilots how are regional airlines to going to staff their companies?

Am I missing something?

Yes, energy prices & outsourcing.

FWIW, Delta is shrinking at a more rapid pace than pilots are retiring.

American & United are likely to do the same.

THe future, if we dont stop it, will continue to be outsourcing. I predict the future airlines are going to be:

1) Skyteam
2) OneWorld
3) Star Alliance
4) SWA and the LLCs

TEN

1. first you can pay for training, and put people straight to the right seat, thats how many parts of the world do it.

2. have the guy in the right seat not a real pilot, again how most of the world does it.

3.increase use of unmanned aircraft, this helps free up pilots for aircraft that need pilots.

The only curve ball I see is, I would like to see the stats of how many people are going overseas for better jobs. Also someone is going to come back and say, that the number of new pilot certificates issued has no really decrease, but the bulk of those are all over seas pilots who come here to learn.

Yep.

I think we're going to see a lot of the airlines 'absorbing' many retirements due to contracting fleet plans, out of control fuel prices and industry consolidation.

That -23,978 shortage just became +2,467 overage. Good luck, I hope you aren't furloughed. :D All kidding aside, I really don't think we're going to see the hiring we are all hoping for.. the major/legacy airlines will never have trouble filling seats.

1. This could be an option, however I don't know if it will be very effective.

2. I understand this could be and has probably been looked at as an option. However this would be a really tough sell to the FAA and public, and I can only imagine the outrange if there were an accident attributed to not having two qualified pilots.

3. Unmanned aircraft? You will not see passengers on unmanned aircraft and the military doesn't operate enough UAV's to have the ability to release enough pilots to have any effect on this industry.

Personally I think the most objective and plausible answer is simply bigger more efficient aircraft flying less routes requiring significantly lower numbers of pilots. I wouldn't be surprised if the regional industry as we know it today is dissolved / abandoned within the next decade.

I agree. Shrinkage/consolidation seems to be the general consensus. SWA would have to furlough 5,000 pilots to get to me but I appreciate your concern :-)

Sr. Barco,

Is that your Sea Ray?

No. I wish it was. Only airline execs have boats like that!

You work for SWA, you got it!! I'll have one someday, somehow!