Lol @ Shrinking to adsorb the retirements. Lets do some math here.

What is it at delta, 5.5 crews per airplane? Sure...lets just use that for kicks. At their peak they will lose about 800 pilots a year, thats about 73 airplanes a year or 7 airplanes per month they will need to bench to keep up with retirements. Some of you really think that will happen? LOL

I just think some of you enjoy being pessimistic, but this isnt rocket science. Hiring booms and busts are a fact. Some last longer than others...this boom might last really long...and it might not. My bet is really long.

One retiree at a major will not equal one new-hire at a major.

One retiree at a major will also not equal one upgrade at a regional.

Even at half the numbers...Delta ALONE will need to hire 34 a month.

Add in everybody else AND Cargo....me thinks there will be a hiring boom.

A certain amount of absorption will occur in the beginning but how long can that last? SWA crews 10.8 pilots per aircraft. Below are Delta's retirements numbers post merger. Assuming 10.8 pilots per aircraft that's a lot of parked planes:

2012 17
2013 80
2014 195
2015 269
2016 330
2017 367
2018 448
2019 524
2020 622
--------------
2,835 through 2020 = 262 aircraft parked

2021 734
2022 551 (No NWA data after 2021)
2023 526
2024 521
2025 455
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5,622 through 2025 = 520 parked aircraft (SANS NWA retirements after 2021)

People keep talking about this, but if airlines from all over the world are poaching American pilots already, how and from where are they ever going to get enough pilots to start flying within our borders?

Add in foreign carriers taking a sizable amount of pilots...and whaddya have?!

Hiring boom...a huge one.

Numbers and reality blow gaping holes through a lot of the opposing arguments. How one can argue with facts is beyond me.

The real Xfactor is the economy, jatropha fuel, and US deriven shale oil. IF these things take off....fuhgettaboutit...we'll be talking signing bonuses...loan forgiveness...etc.
And those last two are not hocus pocus...we are the Saudi Arabia of shale oil...and jatropha fuel is already being tested and used.

Over 8 years, DL would only need to hire a little under 370 pilots per year, hardly difficult. There are plenty of RJ and ex-mil guys to meet that even multiplied by all the mainline carriers. Certainly there is room for more consolidation at the majors, the reduction in RJ flying, certain to happen in the 50-seat ranks, will throw off applicants.

GF

Airline Pilot Central - Regional

Using the above link I found there are 9,905 regional airline pilots in the U.S. The major airlines listed below could hire every one of them in the next 8 years and still be short 2,239 pilots. They still need another approximately 11,500 pilots over the 5 years after that.

With regard to military pilots, If fly with F/O's every week who are currently in guard units, reserve squadrons or were active duty within the past few years. They tell me the majority of their military buds do not trust the airlines and are staying in the military. Minimum commitment is 10 years after flight training. Pay is way up in the military and I've heard of retention bonuses of $100,000.

Unless the current rules change the majors could hire every single regional airline pilot in the U.S. over the next 8 years and then hire 13,700 retiring military pilots over the 5 years after that and just be breaking even.

These are staggering numbers. I just don't see the U.S. carriers shrinking by 50% in the next 13 years. I also don't see how the regionals will be around in 10 years.

Total retirements for SWA+UAL+DAL+USAir:
2013 937
2014 1,198
2015 1,309
2016 1,423
2017 1,558
2018 1,670
2019 1,881
2020 2,104
--------------------
Through 2020= 12,144

2021 2,447 (Beyond 2021 no data for NWA)
2022 2,276
2023 2,363
2024 2,400
2025 2,348 (Beyond 2025 no data for USAir or AA)

-------------------

(23,978 through 2025)

St. Barco's retirement data for Delta+NW is wrong by a pretty good ways on the low side... these are valid combined numbers:

Mandatory Age 65 retirements:

2012 - 15
2013 - 87
2014 - 138
2015 - 197
2016 - 264
2017 - 358
2018 - 456
2019 - 540
2020 - 638
2021 - 818
2022 - 862
2023 - 819
2024 - 807
2025 - 716
2026 - 610
2027 - 509
2028 - 477
2029 - 473
2030 - 487
2031 - 423
2032 - 321
2033 - 252
2034 - 162
2035 - 108
2036 - 92
2037 - 47
2038 - 24