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Originally Posted by slough
(Post 1143042)
Apple is one of the richest companies in human history. There is no way for domestic students to finance training and there isn't money to pop up new schools. Pumping out huge amounts of 250 wonders isn't happening without easy credit, which probably won't be around for decades.
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Originally Posted by Dashdog
(Post 1142982)
You think that there is a shortage of foreigners willing to take American jobs for lower wages? I guess you haven't read a paper for the last 20+ years. Once the airline industry educates the public as to the benefits of cabotage (i.e. lower fares), I don't think there will be any way to stop it. The airline lobby certainly has enough money to buy the legislation, and the public will give up any objections once they start seeing those $29 fares again.
Just my pessimistic $.02. FWIW YMMV blah blah blah... |
Originally Posted by Dashdog
(Post 1143037)
It will come from the inevitable pilot mills that will start up when the demand hits. Look how fast Apple got their China plant up and running with what, 230,000 trained workers?
Ten years ago a zero to hero program cost $40,000 and could be easily financed. That same program now costs $120,000 and is not easily financed. I assume the U.S. is the cheapest place to learn to fly based on the number of foreign students who learn to fly here. Furthermore, when evaluating a career choice who is going to finish college, pay $120,000 for flight school to make $18,000/year to work 14 hours a day and commute to Newark? The gig is up. Other career fields pay well and don't treat you like trash. |
Originally Posted by Sr. Barco
(Post 1143201)
China is a communist country. These factory workers make a couple bucks an hour and the state takes the profits. That's not a valid comparison of conditions in the U.S. (yet).
Ten years ago a zero to hero program cost $40,000 and could be easily financed. That same program now costs $120,000 and is not easily financed. I assume the U.S. is the cheapest place to learn to fly based on the number of foreign students who learn to fly here. Furthermore, when evaluating a career choice who is going to finish college, pay $120,000 for flight school to make $18,000/year to work 14 hours a day and commute to Newark? The gig is up. Other career fields pay well and don't treat you like trash. Something has to give, and soon. |
and there are plenty of American pilots willing to work for foreign companies to earn a great deal more. On the flip side, it is as you said...I mean, why WOULD a foreigner go to America and earn less money??
The growth rate (and/or plan) at some of the foreign carriers is massive. If and when they ever have trouble recruiting, the packages will just get increased. If you have the time, you can go contract in Asia for 189k per year to start. Yes, the US is still the cheapest place to conduct flight training. 6 months ago at least, there were no banks in the US that will provide loans for flight training.
Originally Posted by Surprise
(Post 1143036)
Precisely. In general, there do seem to be plenty of foreigners willing to work "American" jobs for less. The IT field and manufacturing come to mind. But I don't believe that's true for pilots, at least right now. Why else do Emirates, Qatar, ANA, and a host of Chinese and other southeast Asian carriers keep showing up at job fairs in the US?
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Originally Posted by Sr. Barco
(Post 1143201)
China is a communist country. These factory workers make a couple bucks an hour and the state takes the profits. That's not a valid comparison of conditions in the U.S. (yet).
Ten years ago a zero to hero program cost $40,000 and could be easily financed. That same program now costs $120,000 and is not easily financed. I assume the U.S. is the cheapest place to learn to fly based on the number of foreign students who learn to fly here. Furthermore, when evaluating a career choice who is going to finish college, pay $120,000 for flight school to make $18,000/year to work 14 hours a day and commute to Newark? The gig is up. Other career fields pay well and don't treat you like trash. Great point. Factors working in our favor over the next five years: 1) Improving economy (though questionable - biggest wildcard) 2) Age 65 rule ending 3) Worldwide demand increasing 4) Higher rest requirements 5) ATP rule - how many ab initio students willing to get 1000-1500 hrs? 6) Lack of available credit 7) Cost of training 8) cost/benefit analysis of starting flying vs other career options Personally I'm on the 2 year plan. Stick it out no matter what until end of 2013 or so, then evaluate. If there is obvious movement and good positive trend, I'll stay, if not, back to my old business ;). |
Originally Posted by drrhythm2
(Post 1143839)
+1
Great point. Factors working in our favor over the next five years: 1) Improving economy (though questionable - biggest wildcard) 2) Age 65 rule ending 3) Worldwide demand increasing 4) Higher rest requirements 5) ATP rule - how many ab initio students willing to get 1000-1500 hrs? 6) Lack of available credit 7) Cost of training 8) cost/benefit analysis of starting flying vs other career options Personally I'm on the 2 year plan. Stick it out no matter what until end of 2013 or so, then evaluate. If there is obvious movement and good positive trend, I'll stay, if not, back to my old business ;). |
I think it is pretty clear that even though some new hires will chase the quick upgrade (like Mesa last time) many of the smaller regionals (I won't name names) will fail / liquidate simply because they cannot keep up either hiring or training once the majors really start hiring again. The majors will not have staffing problems to speak of. They may have training issues... Delta for example, The list posted earlier, The rate of attrition just due to 65 exceeds their current maximum training through put capability.
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