Originally Posted by 80ktsClamp (Post 1142825)

St. Barco's retirement data for Delta+NW is wrong by a pretty good ways on the low side... these are valid combined numbers:

Mandatory Age 65 retirements:

2012 - 15
2013 - 87
2014 - 138
2015 - 197
2016 - 264
2017 - 358
2018 - 456
2019 - 540
2020 - 638
2021 - 818
2022 - 862
2023 - 819
2024 - 807
2025 - 716
2026 - 610
2027 - 509
2028 - 477
2029 - 473
2030 - 487
2031 - 423
2032 - 321
2033 - 252
2034 - 162
2035 - 108
2036 - 92
2037 - 47
2038 - 24

Originally Posted by Sr. Barco (Post 1142824)

Airline Pilot Central - Regional

Using the above link I found there are 9,905 regional airline pilots in the U.S. The major airlines listed below could hire every one of them in the next 8 years and still be short 2,239 pilots. They still need another approximately 11,500 pilots over the 5 years after that.

With regard to military pilots If fly with F/O's every week who are currently in guard units or reserve squadrons or were active duty within the past few years. They tell me the majority of their military buds do not trust the airlines and are staying in the military. Minimum commitment is 10 years after flight training. Pay is way up in the military and I've heard of retention bonuses of $100,000.

Unless the current rules change the majors could hire every single regional airline pilot in the U.S. over the next 8 years and then hire 13,700 retiring military pilots over the 5 years after that and just be breaking even.

What am I missing?

Originally Posted by BoilerUP (Post 1142830)

*Large regional airlines (like Skywest, American Eagle, ASA/Expressjet, and Republic) actually qualify as national airlines, and are not included in the APC regional airline list. They have an additional 12,500+ pilots between them.

*Pilots currently flying in other segments of industry (corporate, charter, fractional, cargo, etc.)

*Pilots currently employed in other industries (ie. not currently flying)

*Military pilots will start 'trusting the airlines' when they see mass hiring, vs. the last decade which consisted largely of furloughs & stagnation. Wars winding down and budget cuts leading to a reduction in voluntary deployments & man-days, if not headcount, changing perspectives

*Industry consolidation & economic issues reducing need for pilots

Originally Posted by Surprise (Post 1142626)

People keep talking about this, but if airlines from all over the world are poaching American pilots already, how and from where are they ever going to get enough pilots to start flying within our borders?

Originally Posted by Dashdog (Post 1142982)

You think that there is a shortage of foreigners willing to take American jobs for lower wages?

Originally Posted by BoilerUP (Post 1142996)

I think what he's saying is there is a shortage of foreigners qualified to be US airline pilots, as demonstrated by the large amount of pilot talent (from the US and other western countries) recruited to fly for airlines in the Middle East, Asia, South America, Africa, etc.

Where will the cheap pilot labor come from, when those countries cannot even staff their own flag airlines?

Originally Posted by Dashdog (Post 1143037)

It will come from the inevitable pilot mills that will start up when the demand hits. Look how fast Apple got their China plant up and running with what, 230,000 trained workers?

Originally Posted by Dashdog (Post 1143037)

It will come from the inevitable pilot mills that will start up when the demand hits. Look how fast Apple got their China plant up and running with what, 230,000 trained workers?