they keep trying to reinvent the wheel monthly and it breks at the same point always.

 

Eagle was never being divested, and never will be. They would kill it rather than sell it. Far more likely they will shrink Eagle as they flow pilots to the new American. Replacing that flying with outsourced feed providers. The remaining Eagle will be a shell of it's former self, and will just be one among many feed providers. They'll just shrink it to a size they can manage to maintain staffing. After the pilot shortage they may increase it again.

 

After the pilot shortage? I still don't see people running to flights schools in significant numbers. With the current supply of candidates airlines will be hurting for a long time.

 

Yes, the RFOT (Regional First Officer Tsunami) hasn't hit yet. It's just becoming visable a mile offshore as what appears to be a thin wave line. Airline managers across the board still appear to be sipping Mai Tai's on the beach and dancing in the sand. By the time they identify it for what it is (18-24 months) or come out of their sandstorm of denial, they'll be trapped with no where to run. Eagle's feeble efforts aren't the answer. Foreign pilots aren't either. They could even cancel the 1500 minimum and that won't prevent it.

The fact is, this profession is no longer considered lucerative enough to persue by most at the high school senior level where the attraction needs to be. Too much additional investment and too little financial compensation with an absolutely HORRID treatment by regional carriers of their pilots. The situations at Eagle and RAH alone are CLEAR evidence these guys don't get it yet. The college programs are dwindling and the FBO's are barren. Foreign carriers can't even staff their own cockpits and look to the U.S. in part. It's a 4 year pipeline minimum and even if they got aggressive now, it's too late. The majors can suck up regional guys for the next 5 years and not miss a beat and many senior RJ captains will stay to stick it out, but if that RJ right-seat is empty regional carriers are screwed.

They could offer $50,000/year starting pay and still most through the info pipeline know it's an empty promise and doesn't come close to enticing them to make that commitment. Plenty of other more desirable professions without all the garbage and baggage and even if they did that, it would destroy the very economics of the RJ that made it attractive in the first place. That's why I think they'll have no choice by to re-shift more flying back to mainline carriers flying 100-seaters (Delta's got a possible clue with their 50-seater for 717 plan). Sure, there will still be smaller RJ's and regionals, but I don't see a viable or practical answer to the problem over-eager airline managers have created. Eventually, it will trickle to the mainline level once large numbers of retirements here start in 5-10 years and then they'll really be in a world of hurt.

Maybe then, they'll recognize the investment of a pilot (if reluctantly) and also begin to price their product above its cost (also reluctantly). Only a little time left to hide from reality. The next 5 years should be VERY entertaining. My advice is to find high-ground with a good view of the airline management beach party, a pair of good binocs and keep the cooler full. Do that and I think you'll get entertainment you would pay for, for free.

 

^^Clearly explained and spot on.

 

I agree as well.

 

Agree with this, but I doubt we'd see anything radical or quickly. Armed with actual information now, and with somewhat of a crackdown on loaning out money, young people have the ability to make a better choice and actually understand some of the intricacies of the industry. Prior to this information age, it wasn't well known and the implications of getting into the industry were somewhat secret.

On the other hand, never underestimate SJS and "can always find someone". I think we'll see some of these traditional avenues dry up to some extent, but not fast. Majors will have to take back some of the flying, regionals will exist to a smaller extent just like you say, and there will be a better chance of someone who gets into the industry "making it" to majors, because regionals will be smaller than majors again.

This goes along with the idea I've had all along, there are simply too many pilots, too many planes, and too many airlines out there. Although the market drives the "price", if they can no longer find pilots willing to work for those wages/conditions, then the supply shrinks and demand is relatively larger, which is exactly what you want with a business. This means less pilots with airline jobs, but it means better jobs for those in the industry.