ryane946

Lots of facts about hiring/retirements/flow through that will affect the hiring/upgrade at Eagle:

Hiring Numbers
The most jr CA from the last bid result was a LAX SF3 spot, his DOH was 9/6/99.
From 9/6/99-12/31/00 there were 311 people hired.
-152 between 01/01 and 12/31/03. (THREE YEARS!!)
-258 between 01/04 and 12/31/04
-113 between 01/05 and 12/31/05
-234 between 01/06 and 11/27/06

Retirement Numbers
Next 10 years (assuming age 60):
Age Total
60 28
59 44
58 33
57 30
56 39
55 33
54 36
53 35
52 60
51 62
50 84

Flow Through Numbers
348 AA pilot flowbacks currently at Eagle.
394 AE Captains who have AA seniority numbers.
243 other AE Captains who have bid flowthrough, but do not have AA seniority numbers. Letter 3 is set to expire May 08.

American Airlines Retirement Numbers
Incase you are worried about recalls at AA. Here are the retirement numbers for the next 4 years at AA.
01/01/2007 - 12/31/2007 281
01/01/2008 - 12/31/2008 402
01/01/2009 - 12/31/2009 405
01/01/2010 - 12/31/2010 363

Currently there are 2,700 pilots on furlough from AA.


My prediction:
(Feel free to make your own based upon these numbers)
I bet by January 2008 (less than a year), upgrade time will drop to just around 4 years (instead of the current 8). By January 2009, I bet it will be in the 3 year zone. By January 2009, you will probably see everyone recalled to AA. There are currently 2700 on furlough with 1000 set to retire by that time. Assume 1/2 of AA pilots accept recall (that is semi-high). The 750 flow throughs with AA seniority numbers will probably leave Eagle. Over 100 Eagle captains will retire due to age 60. There are about 800 people who have been hired from the current most junior captain DOH through January 2006. And that is all assuming that no single Eagle captain or experienced FO leaves for another airline (which of course some will). You think hiring is crazy right now with Delta and Continental hiring. Imagine what it would be like when United, Northwest, US Air, and American also start hiring!! When American mainline starts hiring (and UAL who has an LAX and ORD base), you will see even faster attrition (like with Continental and ExpressJet).

What does that mean? I am predicting if you were hired in January 2006, your upgrade time will be 3 years. Eagle is hiring 700+ this year. So maybe it is time to stop ignoring Eagle due to their long upgrade time. If you get hired today, I would expect a 3 year upgrade...baring an economic recession.
What does everyone else think?

P.S. Thanks to the Eagle pilots on this forum who have provided this information through various threads!!

robthree

The most junior Jet CA (EMB ORD) awardee (May class) has an Oct 98 hire date... And I see a Nov 99 LA Saab CA awardee (Jul Class)

I'm betting a new hire today will take 4 years to get to the Saab or ATR, 6 to the EMJ.


However, Eagle brass think they need to get rid of thier high longevity Captains. Exactly how they're going to get that done is still a mystery. Especially to them. Rumors include bribing SW and other mainlines to take more Eagle guys and paying them a stipend untill thier OAL pay matches what their Eagle pay would have been. If that doesn't work - which it probably won't - some have speculated that line checks might get a lot more difficult.

IF they manage to get half of the guys hired 1990 or before to go away that would open up another 250-300 Captain seats, which might drop that upgrade to 3 and 5. Which is what the bean counters want... to lower the cost of Labor by reducing longevity in order to compete better with RAG, et al.

ERJ135

Sounds good to me. I just started so I don't know too much about it but, I'll put my two cents in. What I am curious about is are they going to get new aircraft and how that will effect upgrades. I do know they would like to exercise the options for the 25 more CRJ's but, not until big brother AMR says so. Also, I don't think you see much in the way of new equipment until the dust settles from the new contract at AA next year. Thats an impending major battle in itself. Over 400 pilots picketing this week in front of the AMR headquarters plus flt attendants. Its the 1yr anniversary of the MGT bonus's. From what I gather they would like Eagle to fly the 70seater for obvious reasons but, I hear the CRJs are rather expensive and they could get a much better deal from Embraer on 170's. However, while Eagle is allowed to fly 70 seaters they are limited in scope to something like 76k pounds and the 170 is like 78k pounds. I bet management dangles that carrot I front of the AA guys. It'll probably be something like "let Eagle fly the 170 and we'll still fund your pensions". That type of deal. It will be an interesting and probably hostile year. A lot AA folks want their money back.

iahflyr

This is an interesting post. Maybe upgrade will be coming down. How will the flow-through agreement expiring change these numbers. I take it the flow-backs will still be able to go back to American, but what about those guys with seniority numbers but no time spent on the property at American?

robthree

That's the subject of two or three different current grievences I think.

Here's another wrinkle, if letter 3 expires and the flow through ceases to exist, are any unrecalled flow-backs on the street the next day? That could really screw Eagle's operation up for quite a while. I understand that some of US Airway's recalls are being held up at PSA due to thier staffing situation.

buddies8

Lets put it plain for the newbies at AE and for those that don't know. There is nothing that states a flow through has to go to AA. 2700 pilots on furlough and only 1000 retiring in the next 3 years that leaves plenty of furloughs left over. AA will be getting rid of the MD80 (300 of them). No they will not be replaced on a 1 for 1, at best it would be 2 80's for whatever 1. Thats 150 airplane for 300. This is at minimum 12 pilots per airplane, 3600 pilots MD80, 150 whatever aircraft at 12 that equals 1800 pilots required (minimum). There is an excess 1800 pilots off the MD80 plus 1700 furloughs left after 1000 for retirement. You see that the numbers 1700-1800 they are the dead at AA. They will not furlough again but they will keep those 1700 still out. This will not make AA have any new hire classes so no flow through will be leaving AE. AE will have over the next 10 years 448 retires plus 380 flow backs. That give AE 828 captain slots, that is an average 82 per year or 7 captains per month for the next 10 years. Oh unless AE gets larger aircraft the EMB135 and portion of the E140 will be parked because the profit margin on them is very slim.
So for the newbie ERJ135 don't get in a hurry to step on anyone. robthree, they want to maintain that seniority, in other words they don't want anyone over a max of seven years seniority on the property the question is how do they get rid of you,because you may for now be hoping and looking forward to the screw job of the senior pilots at AE but don't forget that you will if you stay be senior one day and what you going to say when they try the same thing on you. I know, your not going to stay here that long, how many pilots have said them same words only to find out how life changes and priorities change and the next thing you know is that you have been here 15 years or more.

Never wish to step over anyone because it always come back and bites your ass.

P.S. If line check get tougher, you fail also, it is both who fail not just one because you allowed whatever happened, happen without any intervention from you the other pilot who is part of the crew. P.C. there are three attempts and the last one is with the FEDS and ALPA in the box with you. Unless you are a total screw up, hard to fail. But anyone can be set up to fail in a sim but not when you have witnesses there the second and third attempt. Know what you spout or just stay quiet and read the posts.

ryane946

Don't listen to buddies8. Just look at his short post history. More than 1/2 them are anti-American Eagle posts. He has some grudge with them.

Just incase though:
Americans retirement numbers (next 10 years)
01/01/2007 - 12/31/2007 281
01/01/2008 - 12/31/2008 402
01/01/2009 - 12/31/2009 405
01/01/2010 - 12/31/2010 363
01/01/2011 - 12/31/2011 318
01/01/2012 - 12/31/2012 312
01/01/2013 - 12/31/2013 388
01/01/2014 - 12/31/2014 478
01/01/2015 - 12/31/2015 571
01/01/2016 - 12/31/2016 628

Oh, and every year after that is 700+. So there is no question there will be hiring at American in the near future.
Your MD-80 replacement statement is B.S. You have no proof of that, and it is an idiotic strategy at best.

At the bare minimum, 348 pilots will flow-back to Eagle. I believe the 394 will flow-up also regardless of the letter 3 thing cause they have AA seniority numbers. For the other 250, that is in question. And your average captains slot point assumes that NO ONE, not a single person will leave Eagle for something better (American, United, Delta, Continental, Northwest, Southwest, UPS, FedEx, ABX, Astar, Atlas, AirTran, Frontier, Alaska...).

buddies8

ryane946
The post were referencing flow backs and flowthroughs going to AA and that was all I was responding to. The 10 years I mentioned were the AE retirements that YOU posted, I never stated 10 years at AA, I said tree years again based on YOUR numbers. The bull **** is spouted by the ones that know nothing and want to show some knowledge. The facts I posted are based on past practices at AMR and the plain simple fact that APA and AA are in contract talks at present an item you failed to mention or know. You must know a lot about AA going to retire MD 80's and new aircraft orders based on a 1 for 1. The flow back numbers were in my calculations, the flowthroughs were not because no-one knows what is going to happen on May 1st 2008 ( the termination of letter 3).

My short post history is my business, I only answer when I want to. I chose to answer here because people were making statements that were inaccurate and a couple looking forward to step on others. You know like the shi+ you spout.

But, what the heck, if your position is only a CFII I can see why you would know more than I. The fact that you can cut and paste information does not mean you know what they mean in the whole scheme, but I will bow to the double I. Maybe you have been doing to many spin maneuvers.

P.S.
You forgot Midwest!

320ToBearz

there is only about 269 flowbacks at eagle now (eagle pilots Q&A 3-7-7) not 348.

you guys are also forgetting the fact that most who have AA numbers don't want to go there now as it is.

sgrd0q

The problem with Eagle is that a lot of the senior folks are older and not looking to go anywhere. The few flowbacks and the few retirements will drive the upgrades, not people leaving for bigger and better things. This will leave the upgrade times long compared to your average regional.