Eagle will be parted out slowly. It will be a long slow death and people like mason32 will hold out until the end thinking great things are to come. I wish no ill will on anybody or any pilot group. But if you work for eagle now is the time to leave, eagle will sooner or later be no more

 

False. There are far too many pilots at the regionals. Even the Devil himself Roger Cohen says the regionals currently have 300 too many 50 seaters which is 2-3000ish pilots too many after the transition to larger RJs.
Don't fall in to this false sense of security because Eagle is offering sign on bonuses. These are temporary band aids to float them a little while until they figure out what they are going to do. If there was a true shortage pay would be going up not down.
They can shut Eagle down far faster than most believe. They have plenty of trump cards and one is to put mainline planes to fill gaps. Either way it will shrink way down and if the intention is to only have 60 airplanes at Eagle they can put 10-20 at Mesa, a few at Wisky, Skywest and Eagle is done.

For OP there is no way to tell at this point. I would wait and see if the proposal goes through. If it doesn't I would imagine it will not bode well for Eagle. Also your math is off as it only considers people leaving Eagle will be flow throughs. If it starts going to 30 a month after Sept. you can add another 10-20 to UAL, Delta ect. plus FOs leaving.
I have flown with FOs here at Eagle that came from Comair and Endeavor. I have seen Eagle FOs leave for Comair and Pinnacle. You just never know. I have even flown with Eagle FOs that were hired 20 years ago left Eagle and ended up back as a new hire at Eagle.
Good luck. That is a very hard decision only you can make and depends on many variables such as where you live and age.

 

In Masons defense he has been VERY accurate in recent events with where things are going and the timelines. Not to say he knows all but he surely seems to know more than anybody around here making predictions. Secondly, I'm quite certain he's AA not Eagle therefore the outcome of Eagle has no impact on him.

 

Mason is not with AE. He's with AA. FYI.

 

I'm assuming the 2 plans are AAGs (bad) and APAs (better), hopefully we get the good outcome.

I'm 30 years old, I wish I was 23 or so and still a kid.

 

If Eagle gets the good outcome it will be the first time in the 17+ years that I have worked there, probably much longer than that.

 

You're listening to Cohen? I stopped reading right after that comment. That's like listening to the White House press secretary. Only job is to convince you what the boss wants you to think. Cohen does not speak for AA.

In the past they could replace a company like Eagle. It isn't so easy now. If you seriously think they could, then you're really out of touch with the state of the industry. Even AA upper management knows; which is why they want a 10 year contract with no amendment round. They need to get through the next decade as main line hiring goes through the roof and strips the regionals of every hit able pilot.

There are more retirements at the mainlines over the next 10 years than there are pilots in the entire regional industry. Do the math yourself. Guess when it really starts to pick up? Think its coincidence that everybody is getting in contract talks while a majority of pilots still think as you?

 

I think people look past Cape Air. There is a company with solid reputation. If you already have jet time, getting more PIC time at a company like that might be better than lateral. It's not TPIC, but you might develop a better attitude and get a little better pay check.

 

If your looking at Compass:

As of the last award we have 575 pilots on property, with 310ish eligible for flow. In a perfect world all 310 would go, but having flown with some of the guys, it sounds like a few may hold back for other opportunities or they are comfortable where they are (50+ years old) and don't want to commute to reserve at DAL.

Mind you, there will be other guys outside of the flows that will leave for greener pastures like UAL, AA, NKS, SWA, etc. but we are getting to the point where upgrades wont be guaranteed quickly like they have been for most of the new hires. My estimate is at least 3-5 years now upgrade time for people starting after the first of the year...We have 265ish pilots on the SL that aren't flow eligible and with the end state being around 450ish, it's just something everyone may want to consider. I think we are done hiring FO's for MSP/DTW and all are going to LAX now (about 20-30 more FO's), the company will build another pool after this round of new hires, for the next set of flows in 2015.

The other problem is even with the future upgrades is finding the guys to backfill into FO spots, who won't be guaranteed quick upgrades. I'm excited about the future here at CPZ and it is a great airline, but I worry in 2 years if we will be able to find people to fill the right seat...

 

I made a lateral move out of Eagle about 9 years ago. It worked for me but I also made the move as a street captain (multiple downgrades at Eagle but I was typed). I would not have made the move to be a FO at another airline. I think it would be harder to explain moving FO to FO.

Things change so fast at regional airlines, what looks good today may not remain that way in a couple years.

Best of luck in your decision