Pure speculation, but I think the future at regional is for slightly higher salaries for a number of years to bring some of the marginally interested pilots out of the woodwork. Gradually they'll raise pay and working conditions as we are already seeing at Lakes, CommutAir and a few others. They are extremely reluctant to dramatically raise pay because once that happens it is impossible to put the cat back in the bag. We'll see piddling raises for years to keep the marginal people coming. Airlines are very good at chiseling costs and will not stop doing that any time soon but I doubt we'll see any of them fold due to lack of pilots.

 

Aren't they all trying to offer incentive pay for first yr, instead of wage increases? That and new flow schemes will be the next step. Maybe later there will be some sort of set-up with aviation programs where an airline subsidizes part of your training in return for an agreement to work for them for a certain amt. of time. I can see the return of Delta Academy, for example.

 

So, say 15% more (slightly higher salaries) for new-hires will bring all kinds of people out of the woodwork ?

For most new-hires (the shortage position), that's perhaps an extra $4000/year or $77/week. Is that going to draw people making $60-150K in other fields to "realize their dream" ?

How about high-school seniors who need to convince mom and dad another $50-60K ABIOVE normal college costs is worth it ?

I STRONGLY doubt that will help.

How about a $50,000 minimum starting salary ?

OK, but now you've got costs that can't be supported by the aircrafts ability to generate enough profit and they're screwed on the other end. At that point, it makes more sense to return that flying to mainline, where more seat revenue is available to offset costs. Nope, they've flown themselves up a canyon and (like it or not) have insufficient power to fly themselves out. All they can do now is shuffle pieces around and ride the attrition until that doesn't work either (and that's approaching very FAST). Then, they can only burn what little furniture is left to heat the house until it's time to abandon the house.

Hey,.........just like virtually everything in this world, the regionals also had a limited life-span (heck, they even use "disposable" jets) and it couldn't last like that forever. It's the ultimate irony that the very thing that gave regionals their viability and popularity (low labor costs) will be the very thing that ultimately results in their demise because no one wants to make such a bad financial and emotional investment in it anymore.

Poor, poor executives. What are they to do ?

 

That's a pilot shortage!

GF

 

The regional model may be flawed beyond repair, but what I'm speculating will happen is small changes not big ones. Increase pilot pay just enough get the fence straddlers through the door. I'm really not speculating, this is what's going on now. People always bought the dream more than the actual job which will continue for a while longer. And sure it's wrong, always was, but it works too well to stop doing any time soon.

 

The "fence straddlers" are but a fraction of those in the college programs who still plan to consider the regionals. Those college program pilots are perhaps 25-30% of those required in the future.

Any way you slice it, the regionals are ****ed.

 

side note

Proof that the majors never intended for regional airlines to be "regional". Even at the creation of the RJ they planned on using it to "exploit long, thin routes. " interesting choice of words back in the 90's considering what has transpired over the last decade and how regionals have been treated



1989: Bombardier Launches The Regional Jet Era | From The Archives

 

What was oil back in mid i
80's when this thing was on drawing board? 25 bucks a barrell ?

 

Management says its because the bro is too expensive to operate. The reality is they need the pilots to fly the RJ. The cost of parts may have a small part in it, but don't be fooled. I know (for a FACT) that SkyWest is retiring the the Brasilia because they need the pilots elsewhere. The hiring team is strugling to fill classes...but for now they are able to do it. Retiring the Brasilia will help for the next 5 months. After that...who knows.

 

My school can't get cfi's, they are having to offer 5 k signing bonuses along with new a20's and a iPad. More then any regional is doing. Standardization is saying they are still having trouble as we are tremendously under staffed. Have about 50 cfi's they need it in the 75 range.