Thanks for the info!

Could you tell us who the majority of students are, US or foreign, training for foreign carriers? Are they really giving away Bose A20s?

 

You know for a fact? Spill the beans amigo, we are nameless avatars on here, what's the immediate need for 300 pilots? I have multiple outside work relations at HDQ that confirm MX & parts as THE factor. Not denying staffing being a variable, just curious on specifics that your hearing.

 

Yes sir a20's and new iPad Air. 99.9% foreign students going to foreign carriers. We have 3 domestic students out of around 350ish students.

 

Management will never admit they're having a harder time recruiting and weaken their position of "no mas" for pilots... MX & parts were a smaller part of the "equation" than the real and growing concern about filling classes and keeping the rest(non-turboprop) portion of the fleet crewed and in the air.

 

Where is this school?


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You pilot shortage guys need to wake up. Where it matters (the majors and quality corporate jobs) there is NO shortage and NEVER WILL BE a shortage.

You could argue "well, the shortage at the regionals will catch up to the majors" but observe that hiring, and the economy is cyclical. Today, 2014, we are seeing "ramped up hiring" (AAL, DAL, UAL) BUT it is NOTHING like the mid-90's. Todays "ramped up hiring" is a joke. FedEx is "hiring" by the way. Jump for joy and high-five your Kit Darby buddies. "Hiring" meaning they are hiring like 10 dudes in the next 12 months.

Once the economy slows down (as it always does), hiring will slow. Hiring is basically because of two things: 1) Expansion at a carrier and/or 2) Replacement of bodies

Slowing economy, expansion slows or stops. Replacement of bodies due to medical outs, retirements, etc is easier obtained via already existing flow-thrus and the current resume stack. In my opinion, the real "dang we need to hire ! hire now !" fire alarm is activiated when a carrier decides it needs to add XXX routes with YYY more planes, to compete with a competitor who is already doing the same. So the flow-thru agreements with so many bodies agreed to per month or per cycle or per new hire class etc, may not satisfy that requirement.

"Yes but age 65 they will need pilots". Age 65 will impact AAL mostly, not so much SWA, JBLU, or even UAL. Probably FDX/UPS. DAL some.

Observe that one carrier's expansion can affect the same carrier's regional, albeit negatively. If AAL decides that due to ramped up PAX at MAF, they will pull 3 RJ flights and add 2 737 flights, then where did those RJ's go ? Kileen ? I doubt it.

Age 65 in mind, if the majors hire a bunch of 50 year old dudes with extensive experience (they are out there), they just band-aided their age 65 problem for 10+ years.

You need to keep in mind that basically the RJ's even if the major brand name is slapped on the fuselage, is competing with the majors in some form or fashion.

Good Luck

 

Shortage of qualified pilots willing to work for US regional airlines does not equate to a scarcity of qualified pilots in the US...

 

There will likely be a "shortage" of regional pilots. There will be qualified pilots, but not ones that will take regional jobs. This will continue to increase as airplanes are shuffled around. There are guys that have been with an airline 15 years that are not willing to go to another regional when theirs goes out of business. The number in school now is simply too low to sustain the attrition.

This will have to lead to better pay/benefits, or the increase in amount of flying at the majors.

The other thing to consider at the Majors is the number of guys that were hired during the last "shortage". There were many young guys that have quite a bit of seniority and have been receiving good pay for years. Pilots working past 60 years of age will be the exception, not the rule. If people can retire at 62, they will.

 

pretty sure this posting is referencing transpac aviation in phoenix. they train zero to hero Chinese pilots

 

That's more wishful thinking. Due to PAUSE being pushed on most airline pilots' career progression due to the Fair Treatment for Experienced Pilots Act, they will HAVE to work beyond 60 to try to make up (some) for the financial hit that 5-year pause cost them.

Some will, many won't - look no further than retirements over the last 5 years...