I think you might have SkyWest confused for MESA. SW has historically been one of the more pricy of the regionals.

Does anyone see a scenario in which this bankruptcy does *not* effect the new pilot contract? I have a hard time believing UAL, AAG, and DAL will sit by and let their contracts with RAH be gutted all while RAH continues to tout their "industry leading pay."

 

Well, if they are successful in shedding the E145s and the Qs how many pilots will they need? I'm not that familiar with Repubic, but to me it looks like there'll be a surplus of pilots if everyone stays. If that's true, does Republic hang on to them? Even if they do then who's going to want to stay knowing they're looking at years of reserve until the seniority list matches the amount of planes? I'm not aware of any airline bankruptcy that hasn't restructured their labor contracts. I hope this is the first, but usually they like to balance things out with natural attrition. And one way is by restructuring the contract only to address it later when they're getting close to their goals

 

Republic is saddled with a huge number of lifers that simply cost way too much money. Realistically, they're probably going to go after the senior captains for large pay concessions knowing full well that most have no other job prospects. It'll be "here's a 40% pay cut". Don't like it? "Don't let the door hit you on the ass on the way out". As an added bonus, BB still walks away unscathed because it's "the mean BK judge" that'll do his dirty work.

 

Pilot pay is not at issue in this bankruptcy, it never was. Having said that, maybe they will want some work rules changed. But it doesn't make sense to reset pilot pay and exasperate the issue that helped get them into this situation to begin with.

 

 

Here's how I'm looking at it:

The first thing RAH is going to try to do is shed its less profitable contracts. That's not going to make DAL, UAL, or AAG (mainly DAL) very happy. The question is, how can RAH justify incurring extra cost to its mainline partners all while touting its industry leading pay? I don't think mainline will stand for that. I'd imagine that at the very least, those generous cash bonuses 1 year after contract ratification are not going to happen. Bedford probably knew that right from the start, too.

As far as needing to still be able to recruit is concerned, only the clinically insane would accept a job at a regional airline that is currently undergoing bankruptcy. Industry leading pay notwithstanding. RAH's ability to recruit for the time being is over.

I hope I'm wrong, though, and I wish my friends at RAH all the best.

 

We only have a few Qs and 16 145s remaining. Staffing on the 170 is very short, so the reduction will right size the ship so to speak at best. Republic will likely need to continue hiring through this whole process to keep the 170s staffed. No furloughs are coming.

 

Delta is gone period. It doesn't make sense for RAH to continue to service their partners "sh*tty". Dump one of them to service the other two better.

Industry leading pay is what it takes to keep pilots from leaving your airline for another airline with a flow and 1 year upgrade. Industry leading pay is what it takes to stop pilots from doing things that are obviously better for their careers in the long run. Said pilots make a decision to trade future pay and benefits for immediate gratification. This should go without saying, but an extra 5 years at a mainline carrier likely means an extra 2 million dollars in total compensation and benefits. Most pilots can't see beyond 10 feet in front of their noses though but whatever. Industry leading pay is what it takes to recruit at an airline like Republic which has nothing else to offer.

Rah's mainline partners can take it or leave it, its their choice. If they want to keep their contract feed going, they'll have to pay up. There's no other way. What's the alternative? Bring the flying back in house? That would be fine too.

Unless RAH changes their model to competition, RAH is going to fail- not immediately, but they will fail. All contract airlines are doomed, but RAH and skywest will be the first. Wholly owneds will be the last standing, as the ownership can dump an unlimited amount of money into them at will.

 

That sounds eerily familiar. Good luck

 

That doesn't solve RAH's pilot shortage issue, it only makes it worse. The so called "don't let the door hit you in the ass" philosophy will play out as there is nothing to lose at a 40% pay cut.

There is no good long term options for RAH, or any regional for that matter. The business model no longer works for anyone. RAH's only long term survival chance comes from becoming the competition.