Flow-through 101, please?
03-21-2016 | 06:09 PM
#11
Thread Starter
Chopstick Grandmaster
Joined: Jul 2013
Posts: 174
Likes: 0
mmm hmm. Like Delta mainlining their E190s.
03-21-2016 | 06:09 PM
#12
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 547
Likes: 0
This is where I think this is ultimately heading. And who is most likely to be first absorbed into mainline when this happens? It won't be the non wholly owned carriers.
03-21-2016 | 06:12 PM
#13
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Feb 2016
Posts: 470
Likes: 0
Yup. Though oddly enough Parker all but said at his last town hall that AA was going to get rid of theirs.
Yup. The admin over on JC, a Delta CA involved with recruiting, has hinted that Delta is working toward this. Given what they're already paying Endeavor it's not that far of a stretch.
I fear AA may need to beat their head against the wall a few times to figure this out though.
I fear AA may need to beat their head against the wall a few times to figure this out though.
03-21-2016 | 06:29 PM
#14
Banned
Joined: Jun 2008
Posts: 8,350
Likes: 0
For the record the "Las Vegas" reference wasn't JUST about the flow-thru, it was about both possibilities in the future (flow or no flow), NEITHER of which is a sure thing. Red or black, take your pick, place your bet. Of course, to those obsessed with me, they don't even make any effort to comprehend or explore my comments before firing a personal missle, they just launch on autopilot.
They are hopeless. Predictable, but hopeless.
03-21-2016 | 07:27 PM
#15
Banned
Joined: Dec 2014
Posts: 718
Likes: 9
It is important to distinguish between "Does the flow work" vs. "Will the flow be there when there aren't enough new regional pilots to fill the seats of those people flying at a regional today"? By all rights this is a pyramid scheme.
Let's break this down into 3 answers as they relate to American. What happens at Delta I have no idea.
Does the flow work? Yes, people who are flowing today are doing so without having to formally interview with mainline.
How long till you flow? This is a touchy area, especially if you read these forums. For a company like envoy, it looks as if the actual pilots that are flowing today have been with envoy for 16 years. That's a long time. Now, people from envoy will tell you that the future of the flow is a shorter period like 5 years. Lots of debate here and many aren't buying it.
This leads me to question 3- Will the flow be there in the future? I don't see how it can be. Because of the pilot shortage, in order to continue the flow in the future, American would have to destroy their own regional feed in order to keep their promise to flow new regional pilots to American. Do you think American would destroy its own regional feed to keep the flow going? I don't think so personally. I think one of two things are much more likely-
1.) American decides to destroy someone else's regional feed- ie hire pilots from non-wholly owned regionals such as Republic etc..
-or-
2.) American decides to add a new rung to the career ladder by saying anyone who wants to work at American MUST go through one of their wholly owned regionals no exceptions. That would mean that a pilot working at a carrier such as Republic would have to quit Republic and go to work for PSA, Envoy, or PDT.
EDIT: Add new option
3.) The regionals are simply absorbed into mainline. The only thing that separates us today is payscales. Other than that, its the same job.
Just my .02.
But think about it, if you are American, do you destroy your own feed just to keep your word on flow with the pilots? American has a history of not keeping their word
One thing to keep in mind, 6 years from today more major airline pilots will have retired then there are regional pilots to replace them with.
Let the sh*t storm begin !
Let's break this down into 3 answers as they relate to American. What happens at Delta I have no idea.
Does the flow work? Yes, people who are flowing today are doing so without having to formally interview with mainline.
How long till you flow? This is a touchy area, especially if you read these forums. For a company like envoy, it looks as if the actual pilots that are flowing today have been with envoy for 16 years. That's a long time. Now, people from envoy will tell you that the future of the flow is a shorter period like 5 years. Lots of debate here and many aren't buying it.
This leads me to question 3- Will the flow be there in the future? I don't see how it can be. Because of the pilot shortage, in order to continue the flow in the future, American would have to destroy their own regional feed in order to keep their promise to flow new regional pilots to American. Do you think American would destroy its own regional feed to keep the flow going? I don't think so personally. I think one of two things are much more likely-
1.) American decides to destroy someone else's regional feed- ie hire pilots from non-wholly owned regionals such as Republic etc..
-or-
2.) American decides to add a new rung to the career ladder by saying anyone who wants to work at American MUST go through one of their wholly owned regionals no exceptions. That would mean that a pilot working at a carrier such as Republic would have to quit Republic and go to work for PSA, Envoy, or PDT.
EDIT: Add new option
3.) The regionals are simply absorbed into mainline. The only thing that separates us today is payscales. Other than that, its the same job.
Just my .02.
But think about it, if you are American, do you destroy your own feed just to keep your word on flow with the pilots? American has a history of not keeping their word
One thing to keep in mind, 6 years from today more major airline pilots will have retired then there are regional pilots to replace them with.
Let the sh*t storm begin !
03-21-2016 | 09:06 PM
#17
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Oct 2015
Posts: 3,193
Likes: 42
From: Gear slinger
Republic does more flying for AAG than PSA and PDT combined. American owns 30% of Mesa. If American doesn't want to destroy its feed it would need to hire from CommutAir, Endeavor, GoJets, Silverwings, and Great Lakes. Everyone else Mesa, Republic, Air Wisconsin, XJet, TSA, Compass, Skywest ALL fly for American. Even Horizon would be off limits since AAG is partners with Alaska.
Half of Deltas pilots come from the military. They're not going away any time soon. The rest they can get from the LCCs and other non WO regionals.
They're probably just going to wait for the other regionals to die off and hire all their pilots who lost their jobs at the WOs.
03-21-2016 | 09:44 PM
#18
Thread Starter
Chopstick Grandmaster
Joined: Jul 2013
Posts: 174
Likes: 0
It is important to distinguish between "Does the flow work" vs. "Will the flow be there when there aren't enough new regional pilots to fill the seats of those people flying at a regional today"? By all rights this is a pyramid scheme.
Let's break this down into 3 answers as they relate to American. What happens at Delta I have no idea.
Does the flow work? Yes, people who are flowing today are doing so without having to formally interview with mainline.
How long till you flow? This is a touchy area, especially if you read these forums. For a company like envoy, it looks as if the actual pilots that are flowing today have been with envoy for 16 years. That's a long time. Now, people from envoy will tell you that the future of the flow is a shorter period like 5 years. Lots of debate here and many aren't buying it.
This leads me to question 3- Will the flow be there in the future? I don't see how it can be. Because of the pilot shortage, in order to continue the flow in the future, American would have to destroy their own regional feed in order to keep their promise to flow new regional pilots to American. Do you think American would destroy its own regional feed to keep the flow going? I don't think so personally. I think one of two things are much more likely-
1.) American decides to destroy someone else's regional feed- ie hire pilots from non-wholly owned regionals such as Republic etc..
-or-
2.) American decides to add a new rung to the career ladder by saying anyone who wants to work at American MUST go through one of their wholly owned regionals no exceptions. That would mean that a pilot working at a carrier such as Republic would have to quit Republic and go to work for PSA, Envoy, or PDT.
EDIT: Add new option
3.) The regionals are simply absorbed into mainline. The only thing that separates us today is payscales. Other than that, its the same job.
Just my .02.
But think about it, if you are American, do you destroy your own feed just to keep your word on flow with the pilots? American has a history of not keeping their word
One thing to keep in mind, 6 years from today more major airline pilots will have retired then there are regional pilots to replace them with.
Let the sh*t storm begin !
Let's break this down into 3 answers as they relate to American. What happens at Delta I have no idea.
Does the flow work? Yes, people who are flowing today are doing so without having to formally interview with mainline.
How long till you flow? This is a touchy area, especially if you read these forums. For a company like envoy, it looks as if the actual pilots that are flowing today have been with envoy for 16 years. That's a long time. Now, people from envoy will tell you that the future of the flow is a shorter period like 5 years. Lots of debate here and many aren't buying it.
This leads me to question 3- Will the flow be there in the future? I don't see how it can be. Because of the pilot shortage, in order to continue the flow in the future, American would have to destroy their own regional feed in order to keep their promise to flow new regional pilots to American. Do you think American would destroy its own regional feed to keep the flow going? I don't think so personally. I think one of two things are much more likely-
1.) American decides to destroy someone else's regional feed- ie hire pilots from non-wholly owned regionals such as Republic etc..
-or-
2.) American decides to add a new rung to the career ladder by saying anyone who wants to work at American MUST go through one of their wholly owned regionals no exceptions. That would mean that a pilot working at a carrier such as Republic would have to quit Republic and go to work for PSA, Envoy, or PDT.
EDIT: Add new option
3.) The regionals are simply absorbed into mainline. The only thing that separates us today is payscales. Other than that, its the same job.
Just my .02.
But think about it, if you are American, do you destroy your own feed just to keep your word on flow with the pilots? American has a history of not keeping their word
One thing to keep in mind, 6 years from today more major airline pilots will have retired then there are regional pilots to replace them with.
Let the sh*t storm begin !
03-21-2016 | 10:11 PM
#19
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Oct 2015
Posts: 3,193
Likes: 42
From: Gear slinger
I wish I had a copy of the slide, but a hiring brief the other day showed that between the Majors and Regionals there are about 1600-1800 surplus pilots that they don't need to hire this year to meet manning goals. That number drops over the next 3 years until it reaches a surplus of 65 pilots or so. Only in year 4/5 does there start to be a legitimate shortage of pilots as retirements outpace production.
What does this mean? You'll see the regionals around for another 5 years before they start dying off, slowly, weakest first until all that are left are the Wholly Owned. These numbers will change as age 67 is introduced, minimums are lowered even further and more military pilots make the jump to the majors.
Don't expect this pilot shortage to hit drastically overnight. Go where you think you'll get on with the major of your choice the quickest. For many people that's the Wholly Owned regionals due to the leadership and advanced check boxes they'll get to check along their way to flow as their pilot group turns over 10% a year.
AA's wholly owned flow is better than the Delta and United preferred interview programs. After slaving away at their regional partner, they can decide to not hire you after the interview, which means you've got a 50/50 shot at getting hired at a different major while pilots from other programs get on at the one you wanted.
What does this mean? You'll see the regionals around for another 5 years before they start dying off, slowly, weakest first until all that are left are the Wholly Owned. These numbers will change as age 67 is introduced, minimums are lowered even further and more military pilots make the jump to the majors.
Don't expect this pilot shortage to hit drastically overnight. Go where you think you'll get on with the major of your choice the quickest. For many people that's the Wholly Owned regionals due to the leadership and advanced check boxes they'll get to check along their way to flow as their pilot group turns over 10% a year.
AA's wholly owned flow is better than the Delta and United preferred interview programs. After slaving away at their regional partner, they can decide to not hire you after the interview, which means you've got a 50/50 shot at getting hired at a different major while pilots from other programs get on at the one you wanted.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
