Attrition
 

My experience Sir is that there's significantly more than a 5% dropout rate. Ive been through training in 2 regionals. (Both on this list)
One passed everyone in the class, but had a huge number of people leave within a month or two. Some went to the Majors, granted, but many went back to Corporate or Government flying. I'd estimate half of my class left in the first 3 months.
The other has a fairly well documented ~15% dropout rate in training, again, some simply can't keep up, but others leave to return to their previous jobs. 121 isn't for everyone. Once IOE is completed at this company however, i've not heard of a soul leaving.
I would suggest the first year dropout rate is 15 to 20% of day one new hires. Perhaps more. The are plenty of rumors about the majors having substantial training dropouts too; though most of them simply transfer to their 'preferred' major.
The rate at which the stronger regionals are attracting pilots, and the less strong failing to retain them adds weight to the argument that the shortage is in fact, very real. If nothing else, look at first year pay. It's gone from ~$25k to perhaps in excess of $50k in the last 18 months.
PL.

Thank you for the insight. I'm looking in from the outside and making estimations based on what I read and hear. Seems like if it is bucketlister/2nd career guys/returning to the industry guys keeping classes full, the pool will start to dry. Aren't most guys who have decided if they are going to return making that move by now ?

While 50k first year pre tax might be the reality for endeavor, I think most are still low 30k's after all is said and done.

Mix it up
 

There's a real mix. Endeavor does attract people out of Corp and off the sidelines with pay and conditions. In both there was a real mix of Military, Corp/Freight & CFIs. The real hope for the future of course is young, keen CFI's, they are the medium term pipeline. Some 135s must really be hurting; my classmates have told me some very difficult stories of that lifestyle & pressures..

I work at a 135 and our turnover is very high. Upgrades are availible to many FOs but few stay past 1500 before they are off . CA getting calls from majors (if they have prior 121) and the LCCs and good corporate gigs. It would make sense to me the 135 world would be hit prior to the 121. Then again, there are only 2-4k positions probably country wide for low time guys who aren't cfis.

That 50k would be nice with endeavor, but for me the bases suck. I don't want to live in NYC, which seems to be where everything is headed.

From what I've seen, AA's WOs are offering a 15K bonus to new hires, making their 28K first year salary ~43K. And if you're willing to live in ORD and fly 145's or CRJ's Envoy will give you another 5K, putting first year at 48K. Too bad second year will still be ~36K...

Yep and don't forget if you leave before 12 months then you pay back the entire 15-20k. If you leave before 24 months you pay back a pro rated amount

Which Endeavor does not have. The bonus pays out every 4 months and it's yours to keep as long as you're on property.

This is very accurate right now. As a new hire, I can nearly guarantee you'll be NYC based.

It is not possible to live in NYC or ORD on those wages.

A new hire will be able to get out of NYC and to a more desirable base within a vacancy or two. Unless NYC is the desirable spot....:eek: