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Originally Posted by sailingfun
(Post 2258639)
So your saying all the current aircraft will be retired in the next 20 years and all the aircraft on order and new types scheduled to be built shortly will be canceled with a all new fleet of completely new airframes built and completed in 20 years. Correct?
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Originally Posted by gloopy
(Post 2258651)
LOL! Yeah ok.
So the machines are taking over, etc. Whatever. That tech has been around for generations and practically viable for decades. But no where near realistic on a cost basis. Humans are simply way cheaper. Especially for flying. Worst case we'll see a reduction on long haul crews. Although it would be pretty funny to see them sign off on a 2 pilot ultra long haul knowing that if something happens the pilot in deep REM sleep will have to spring to life and come help save the day bwahahahah! Not worried about it in the slightest. The entire machine learning team at Boeing thinks this can be done within 5 years. Elon Musk thinks it's sooner. |
Originally Posted by Mercyful Fate
(Post 2258697)
Yes really now. I am curious, how long you been flying mainline with Delta?
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Originally Posted by Mesabah
(Post 2258772)
Machine learning does not require Cat III ILS systems, it uses synthetic machine vision to shoot visual approaches in all weather conditions. All that expensive equipment you talk about is actually eliminated, and replaced with much less expensive equipment.
The entire machine learning team at Boeing thinks this can be done within 5 years. Elon Musk thinks it's sooner. Like I said, you can fully automate planes right now...if you are OK with drone like safety levels. RC, Robot, internal or external, whatever, can already be used to fly a CAT III approach. Big deal. Its the complex management of all systems during an emergency as well as decision making and redundancy that it can't even come remotely close to doing at anywhere near the same universe of costs. Humans are simply WAY cheaper. I can't blame Musk for trying to break off some more of that sweet Uncle Sugar gravy train money though. |
Originally Posted by Mesabah
(Post 2258348)
There won't be any truck drivers in 10 years, no regional pilots in 15 years, and no mainline pilots in 20 years. I'm being generous too, it's probably much sooner.
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Originally Posted by Mesabah
(Post 2258768)
No, not at all, these systems would be added on to current aircraft.
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Originally Posted by gloopy
(Post 2258805)
Not even remotely close to that. They are off by many decades.
Like I said, you can fully automate planes right now...if you are OK with drone like safety levels. RC, Robot, internal or external, whatever, can already be used to fly a CAT III approach. Big deal. Its the complex management of all systems during an emergency as well as decision making and redundancy that it can't even come remotely close to doing at anywhere near the same universe of costs. Humans are simply WAY cheaper. I can't blame Musk for trying to break off some more of that sweet Uncle Sugar gravy train money though. |
Originally Posted by Nantonaku
(Post 2258818)
What jobs will be left then? Sounds good, we can all just sit at home and watch TV. Except no one will have money to buy a TV.
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Originally Posted by Mesabah
(Post 2258845)
All of these problems are addressable, you can add human operators if systems are deferred. However, this is really not an issue, since if redundancy is lost, the aircraft would land at the nearest suitable airport. This is like saying we can't go below having 4 engines, because if one fails we can't make it to the destination. Is a two engine jet more costly, than a four engine jet, according to you it is. On top of that, a self driving car is ridiculously more complicated, than an autonomous aircraft. No matter how much you are in denial, this will happen, and soon.
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