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Originally Posted by msprj2
(Post 2258193)
Ok Buzz Lightyear
Yes some people still think all past trends will continue forever. All signs point to the RJ elevator ride stopping on the 76th floor though. Oh well, it was one heck of a run. |
Originally Posted by gloopy
(Post 2258203)
LOL I know right?
Yes some people still think all past trends will continue forever. All signs point to the RJ elevator ride stopping on the 76th floor though. Oh well, it was one heck of a run. |
Originally Posted by Mercyful Fate
(Post 2258333)
Until the crap hits the fan and both you and management start scrambling to find solutions.
That is certainly great news for regional pilots! Not sure why you're not celebrating it. Seems strange. |
Originally Posted by Mesabah
(Post 2258348)
There won't be any truck drivers in 10 years, no regional pilots in 15 years, and no mainline pilots in 20 years. I'm being generous too, it's probably much sooner.
The next fully automated career field will be taxis and the like. It will probably take 20-30 years to get rid of all taxi cabs. I think cargo pilots will be the first aviation career to be automated. I don't think that'll happen in the next 25 years. It'll take at least that long to create the infrastructure and regulations to allow for it to happen. As for passenger traffic? I think we will start seeing single pilot technology in major airline cockpits at the end of my career. People are fine if their box goes down in the middle of Nebraska. I am still surprised at how many people still say that they would NEVER own a self-driving car. Until they are comfortable with that, they will never be okay without a pilot. Getting rid of pilot labor doesn't save THAT much. |
Originally Posted by CBreezy
(Post 2258535)
While I don't disagree in your statement, I think your timeline is ambitious. I think the first thing to go will be truck drivers, most likely in the next 15-20 years. It just takes way too long to purchase that kind of technology especially when current technology is already paid for.
The next fully automated career field will be taxis and the like. It will probably take 20-30 years to get rid of all taxi cabs. I think cargo pilots will be the first aviation career to be automated. I don't think that'll happen in the next 25 years. It'll take at least that long to create the infrastructure and regulations to allow for it to happen. As for passenger traffic? I think we will start seeing single pilot technology in major airline cockpits at the end of my career. People are fine if their box goes down in the middle of Nebraska. I am still surprised at how many people still say that they would NEVER own a self-driving car. Until they are comfortable with that, they will never be okay without a pilot. Getting rid of pilot labor doesn't save THAT much. It's not about saving the cost of the pilot, that's nothing, it's about being able to get up to 50% more utilization out of the aircraft, increasing billions in revenue. |
Originally Posted by CBreezy
(Post 2258535)
While I don't disagree in your statement, I think your timeline is ambitious. I think the first thing to go will be truck drivers, most likely in the next 15-20 years. It just takes way too long to purchase that kind of technology especially when current technology is already paid for.
The next fully automated career field will be taxis and the like. It will probably take 20-30 years to get rid of all taxi cabs. I think cargo pilots will be the first aviation career to be automated. I don't think that'll happen in the next 25 years. It'll take at least that long to create the infrastructure and regulations to allow for it to happen. As for passenger traffic? I think we will start seeing single pilot technology in major airline cockpits at the end of my career. People are fine if their box goes down in the middle of Nebraska. I am still surprised at how many people still say that they would NEVER own a self-driving car. Until they are comfortable with that, they will never be okay without a pilot. Getting rid of pilot labor doesn't save THAT much. What will dictate this shift is the change in generation. Baby boomers (and older) would definitely not be "OK," with this. Millennials? It would happen tomorrow if it were possible. |
Originally Posted by Mesabah
(Post 2258587)
Pilots will be eliminated in less than 20 years, this is absolutely assured. The next level of automation will require a technician to monitor the aircraft. Flying is soon to be a maintenance function, no longer a pilot one. There won't be drones, there just won't be pilots.
It's not about saving the cost of the pilot, that's nothing, it's about being able to get up to 50% more utilization out of the aircraft, increasing billions in revenue. |
Originally Posted by sailingfun
(Post 2258639)
So your saying all the current aircraft will be retired in the next 20 years and all the aircraft on order and new types scheduled to be built shortly will be canceled with a all new fleet of completely new airframes built and completed in 20 years. Correct?
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