You do need to be a captain. It's likely that those on reserve as FOs will eventually fly the line, upgrade and flow. At this point, since January of 18, every FO with enough hours of 121 to upgrade to captain, was force upgraded to the position.

Any pilot under over 2000 seniority has a projected flow time of 7.5+ years. Even if that estimate turns out to be super conservative and they flow 2 years early that's 5.5 years to flow. Assuming 6 months worth of training, vacation, and sick time during their first 3 years. 30 months * 35 hours a month = 1050 hours by the end of year 3. So even if the flow goes much faster than predicted a reserve pilot flying 35 hours a month will spend over 2 years as a captain.

Yes, all after October 2011 need to have been a captain for a year in order to flow, you can be a captain for a year and displaced to f/o position and still qualify yo flow. Let's not forget your file must be clear of disciplinary or attendance issues too.

Just as an update for anyone, the latest seniority list came out, the most recent guy who got hired on Feb 11th's flow date is Jan 2028. So a 9 year flow according to ALPA, yes yes there's OAL attrition/people that pass on the flow, but just letting people know what the flow is at right now for a new hire.

List online
JetBlue, MyIDtravel (you can use the ask desk too)
Frontier, using ID90 website to list
Alegiant, ID90 website to list
Spirit, using their own website to list
AA, MyIDtravel or phone for non employees

Fedex/UPS/Atlas/Kalitta/Omni/ATI - call to list

That 9 year drops dramatically during your first months/years here. I moved up 100 spots in the first 2 months.
8 is pessimistic, 7 is probably pretty accurate. Assuming no 9/11 v2 events.

With this level of attrition, the flow for a new hire is 3.5 years
(no, I'm not serious, but that's how the math works)

That's because you were probably already here when renegotiations happened around 6 months ago for protected pilots to be bumped up to 29 a month. Just because of that renegotiation I slid up almost 1.5 years, but you're not going to see any drastic changes any more again baring 9/11/recession events.

No. I've been here for a few months. In 2 months, I moved up 98 spots.
The movement is really, really fast initially. The slowdown rate is hard to predict especially with the future attrition that will happen.
I'm guessing I'll move up 500 spots year 1. That cuts almost a year off the union prediction.

Nope, Envoy promises flow in for everyone in less than 6 years. If it takes longer, there will be guaranteed compensation for lost wages at American.