It's possible. Maybe optimistic, but it's possible. So far the company has been more accurate about the flow times than the union, and way more accurate than people at this forum.

 

Yeah, nobody senior to you will ever resign, get fired, or die. Your number is locked in at hiring and that’s that.

Union numbers are always worst case scenario based on current agreement. Barring any changes to the flow agreement and expecting some attrition between now and then, your flow time will decrease over time.

 

Nearly everyone should expect to move an average of 30 spots per month. That is roughly the current flow. But, yes, first year you do jump quite a bit more. I don’t know exact numbers, but there is pretty significant attrition the first year. People don’t make it through training or show up and have a medical issue. People decide it just isn’t for them and the handful of guys that just needed some currency and/or a 121 training event to get picked up by a major. (Yes, usually the military guys)

Second year you don’t see as much attrition. Barring another juggle of the flow (in our favor we hope) you won’t see that kind of movement. And after the PPs leave the flow will trickle for a while. There will be very little movement next year due to flow. (Or lack there of) And yes, if you scroll through the Union flow list, it is clearly displayed when this happens.

I agree there is always some attrition between the first year and flow, but it really just isn’t a lot.

 

I'm using average 25 per month attrition above me after PP's which I consider slightly on the pessimistic side over the next 6-7 years. Note, that when the PP->DoS people flow (which is a trickle), I'm still very junior, so I benefit from that. That gives me (and pretty much every other 2018 hire) a 6.5 year flow.
That's only a few people quitting outside the flow per month.

 

It will happen when it happens. You not going to get there faster discussing this to nausea sets in.
Its 6 minimum 8 on high side.

 

How else are we supposed to kill the time waiting for it?

6-8 I'd say is a realistic timeframe.

 

By applying everywhere else, going to job fairs, completing your degree, volunteering, and doing everything you have to do to get out of here before your number comes up.

 

Union numbers are based on zero attrition and no hiccups in the flow. Dead or slow months like December's historically and what is predicted in August aren't accounted for on the list and they really offset any attrition especially as you get within a few years if the flow as there's less attrition above you. My flow date changed by a few months because of the renegotiated numbers but other than that hasn't changed by more than a month in 2 years

 

Same here. Yet so many folks still here thinking their flow will decrease by 4 years in the next 5 years. The power of wishful thinking is strong with this group.

 

Where did you get 4 years from?
It's 8 years 11 months right now for a new hire. First few months will cut close to 6 months out of it. I've been saying 6-8 years.
No-one thinks a 4-5 year flow is realistic.