Flow
#31
In a land of unicorns
Joined APC: Apr 2014
Position: Whale FO
Posts: 6,401
It's possible. Maybe optimistic, but it's possible. So far the company has been more accurate about the flow times than the union, and way more accurate than people at this forum.
#32
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2017
Posts: 262
That's because you were probably already here when renegotiations happened around 6 months ago for protected pilots to be bumped up to 29 a month. Just because of that renegotiation I slid up almost 1.5 years, but you're not going to see any drastic changes any more again baring 9/11/recession events.
Union numbers are always worst case scenario based on current agreement. Barring any changes to the flow agreement and expecting some attrition between now and then, your flow time will decrease over time.
#33
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2017
Posts: 2,510
Second year you don’t see as much attrition. Barring another juggle of the flow (in our favor we hope) you won’t see that kind of movement. And after the PPs leave the flow will trickle for a while. There will be very little movement next year due to flow. (Or lack there of) And yes, if you scroll through the Union flow list, it is clearly displayed when this happens.
I agree there is always some attrition between the first year and flow, but it really just isn’t a lot.
#34
In a land of unicorns
Joined APC: Apr 2014
Position: Whale FO
Posts: 6,401
Nearly everyone should expect to move an average of 30 spots per month. That is roughly the current flow. But, yes, first year you do jump quite a bit more. I don’t know exact numbers, but there is pretty significant attrition the first year. People don’t make it through training or show up and have a medical issue. People decide it just isn’t for them and the handful of guys that just needed some currency and/or a 121 training event to get picked up by a major. (Yes, usually the military guys)
Second year you don’t see as much attrition. Barring another juggle of the flow (in our favor we hope) you won’t see that kind of movement. And after the PPs leave the flow will trickle for a while. There will be very little movement next year due to flow. (Or lack there of) And yes, if you scroll through the Union flow list, it is clearly displayed when this happens.
I agree there is always some attrition between the first year and flow, but it really just isn’t a lot.
Second year you don’t see as much attrition. Barring another juggle of the flow (in our favor we hope) you won’t see that kind of movement. And after the PPs leave the flow will trickle for a while. There will be very little movement next year due to flow. (Or lack there of) And yes, if you scroll through the Union flow list, it is clearly displayed when this happens.
I agree there is always some attrition between the first year and flow, but it really just isn’t a lot.
That's only a few people quitting outside the flow per month.
#36
In a land of unicorns
Joined APC: Apr 2014
Position: Whale FO
Posts: 6,401
#37
#38
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2015
Posts: 687
Yeah, nobody senior to you will ever resign, get fired, or die. Your number is locked in at hiring and that’s that.
Union numbers are always worst case scenario based on current agreement. Barring any changes to the flow agreement and expecting some attrition between now and then, your flow time will decrease over time.
Union numbers are always worst case scenario based on current agreement. Barring any changes to the flow agreement and expecting some attrition between now and then, your flow time will decrease over time.
#39
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2015
Posts: 217
Union numbers are based on zero attrition and no hiccups in the flow. Dead or slow months like December's historically and what is predicted in August aren't accounted for on the list and they really offset any attrition especially as you get within a few years if the flow as there's less attrition above you. My flow date changed by a few months because of the renegotiated numbers but other than that hasn't changed by more than a month in 2 years
#40
In a land of unicorns
Joined APC: Apr 2014
Position: Whale FO
Posts: 6,401
It's 8 years 11 months right now for a new hire. First few months will cut close to 6 months out of it. I've been saying 6-8 years.
No-one thinks a 4-5 year flow is realistic.
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