12/1 bid (last quarterly) has 654 JFK 320 FOs, 634 current active, and 672 target active, for 38 vacancies.
But the 1/1 effective date shows 567 active FOs, 603 target. So there was a target of 672 by December 1st, and now a target of 603 by Jan 1st.
A couple others have some fairly big discrepancies as well, but this was the worst.
Across the spectrum, the number of active/target pilots, and the continuity from bid period to bid period, makes no sense.
From the 12/1 bid, there was a total of 3,944 target pilots., but on the 1/1 bid, there is a total 3817 target active pilots.
This is a perfect example of more blue math.
Using this system bid and its effective dates, given the inconsistencies from period to period with target/active pilots, the only real way to judge projected growth from today, imo is to take the 12/2 (final) target, and subtract the initial active pilots from the 1/1 bid period, which is 482. That incorporates remaining 2019 growth and 2020 growth thru 12/1/20. 2020 projected growth can be calculated by using final 12/2 target minus 1/1 target, or 4208-3817, which is 391.
According to the last quarterly bid, there were 237 inactive pilots (LOAs/mgmt), and the new target is 4208 active, so assuming the number of inactive remains the same, that’s a 4,445 person list.
As of yesterday there are 3,988 on the list. The 12/1 quarterly bid (the last one) had 3,944 target pilots with 237 inactive, for a total of 4,181. Don’t think there will be 193 pilots hired between now and 12/1 to reach that target. But discounting the last quarterly bid, using the 1/1 effective date target number (3817), and adding 237 inactives, we get 4,054. That’s 66 new bodies between now and 1/1. I’m showing 289 hired so far this year, with 3 having left, so 286 2019 hires on property still. Adding the 66 needed for the rest of 2019, that’d be a total of 352 hires in 2019.
So if there is a needed growth of 391 pilots in 2020 as this bid indicates, that means hiring roughly 480 if attrition is around 80-90.
That’s my rough analysis after making a spreadsheet and looking at it. But a lot of the numbers don’t make sense still, and doesn’t account for any A220/supplemental bids. Should be interesting and mildly frustrating to watch how this plays out. Kind of hard to make career decisions with this blue math.