Somewhere around 23-26, depending on which math you use.

 

Agree on all. Even if the a220 shows up end of 2020, it still wouldn't end up in service for MONTHS after that (well into 2021), and as you say, will most likely be delayed.

 

You've mistaken my guess at what's going on in the minds of management for my own opinions. All I'm saying is that none of this is surprising...

 

Based on us taking 23 aircraft next year, based on the projected amount of pilots leaving or retiring, based on everyone in recurrent saying they're being told 500-600 pilots hired next year (and over the next 4-5 years) tells me they've significantly under staffed on this annual system bid.

I mean it makes sense from the company's perspective. It gives them more flexibility to adjust to changes. Combine that with their inability to plan for anything tells me that it's easier to under staff on this bid and add as they see fit with supplemental bids as opposed to max staff then have that result in too many pilot upgrades/hiring.

 

Exactly. This gives a percentage of our pilots a chance to know what quarter they'll be going to training for transition/upgrade. Did anyone expect this to go differently?

 

http://investor.jetblue.com/~/media/...19-updates.pdf

Are the 6 delayed aircraft publically disclosed to arrive in 2020?

 

They were asked specifically in the earnings call and I think the answer was something to the effect of “back end loaded and won’t be getting more than 14 next year.” I could be mis-remembering though.

 

I didn't hear that. I saw a different presentation page somewhere that actually showed 22 or 23 planes being taken next year. My understanding it was adding the 6-7 we aren't taking this year to next year's original order.

 

https://skift.com/2019/07/23/jetblue...ng-its-growth/ here's an article also saying only 14 for next year. It was in the Q&A and quickly answered then deflected to a talking point about the 320 restyling timeline shift to make up for it, iirc.

What I don't understand is that since they know they are only getting 6 this year, and acknowledge that via asterisk and footnote on the 12, why they don't just publish a new delivery schedule. My guess is that it's being negotiated and still isn't certain, or it depends on AB's ability to accelerate/ramp up NEO production, which is why they weren't very clear about it in the earnings Q&A.

Perhaps someone should AskJoanna...

 

So here's another question for someone who might actually understand these numbers. Upgrade on last system bid went to someone with around 2.5yrs of seniority on the 190 at JFK. Seeing the reduction and negative numbers next to all 190 CAs on this published report, are we to assume that upgrade is going to stagnate? Or is the company going to continue to upgrade and keep upgrade times fairly junior? Also, what if something comes up and someone wants to simply bid out of a base in the future? They won't be able to do so for another year once this bid is submitted and closed?

I don't know how other companies do it, but this annual system bid non-sense is one thing I definitely didn't ask for or want in our CBA. I feel like a lot of people are going to end up being screwed over just due to basic mistakes/misunderstanding of the bid with no way to fix it once finalized.