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Old 08-02-2019 | 04:57 AM
  #181  
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Originally Posted by AYLflyer
So here's another question for someone who might actually understand these numbers. Upgrade on last system bid went to someone with around 2.5yrs of seniority on the 190 at JFK. Seeing the reduction and negative numbers next to all 190 CAs on this published report, are we to assume that upgrade is going to stagnate? Or is the company going to continue to upgrade and keep upgrade times fairly junior? Also, what if something comes up and someone wants to simply bid out of a base in the future? They won't be able to do so for another year once this bid is submitted and closed?

I don't know how other companies do it, but this annual system bid non-sense is one thing I definitely didn't ask for or want in our CBA. I feel like a lot of people are going to end up being screwed over just due to basic mistakes/misunderstanding of the bid with no way to fix it once finalized.
Base trading is separate from the annual system bid. It’s done monthly per section 24.N of the CBA.
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Old 08-02-2019 | 05:02 AM
  #182  
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Originally Posted by AYLflyer
So here's another question for someone who might actually understand these numbers. Upgrade on last system bid went to someone with around 2.5yrs of seniority on the 190 at JFK. Seeing the reduction and negative numbers next to all 190 CAs on this published report, are we to assume that upgrade is going to stagnate? Or is the company going to continue to upgrade and keep upgrade times fairly junior? Also, what if something comes up and someone wants to simply bid out of a base in the future? They won't be able to do so for another year once this bid is submitted and closed?

I don't know how other companies do it, but this annual system bid non-sense is one thing I definitely didn't ask for or want in our CBA. I feel like a lot of people are going to end up being screwed over just due to basic mistakes/misunderstanding of the bid with no way to fix it once finalized.
There will be plenty of people bidding off the 190 to the 320 (and 220), so there will still be movement (imo) despite the reduction. But once it starts getting retired in large numbers, I think your point will be valid. That’s one reason being on a dying fleet isn’t desireable and why I bet upgrade remains quick.

You can still request a base trade on a monthly basis (24.N).

But yeah I agree this annual system bid is not cool. Apparently it only exists because the union insisted on keeping vacation if you have a change in status, so now vacation is bid right after the annual system bid. Forecasting it this far in advance was necessary from the company to get that piece of the CBA. At least that’s the story I heard. Seems like a lose/lose for the company and pilots doing it this way otherwise.
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Old 08-02-2019 | 05:29 AM
  #183  
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Originally Posted by HighFlight
Somewhere around 23-26, depending on which math you use.
So why am I seeing -3?
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Old 08-02-2019 | 05:45 AM
  #184  
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I also heard them clearly day on the Q2 call that only 14 deliveries next year.

Also agree this annual bid is the MINIMUM staffing the company expects next year, and the only reason we have an annual bid is to protect your awarded vacation in the event you change status or base next year.
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Old 08-02-2019 | 06:05 AM
  #185  
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Originally Posted by localizer
So why am I seeing -3?
Ignore the vacancies. Look at the target numbers. They increase from 295 to 321 from the bid periods from 1/1 to 12/2. Yes, it shows an initial drop for the 1/1 period, but the last quarterly bid had 282 active pilots with a target of 296 (14 vacancies), some of which went unfilled. There will be plenty of people bidding out of FLL FO each period (and throughout the remainder of 2019), which will open backfill slots, plus the 26 new vacancies from this annual bid. There will be a decent amount of movement in FLL in the next 18 months, imo.
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Old 08-02-2019 | 07:40 AM
  #186  
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Can kick to the end of 2020 and after that blue skies ahead.

Maybe ...

... in 2019 we were due to receive 13 shelves, and as we said in our prepared remarks in the presentation, we will now receive a maximum of six. In 2020 we are due to receive 15, and now we expect to receive 14.

Obviously, the capacity is back-end loaded ...
"Obviously" is a fundamental component of the "PANTS-ON-FIRE" technique.
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Old 08-02-2019 | 08:03 AM
  #187  
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IROP Pants?
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Old 08-02-2019 | 08:12 AM
  #188  
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Originally Posted by PSU Flyer
IROP Pants?
Ode to the show Atypical.

How to lie.

Praise, obviously, then flee.

PANTS ON FIRE.
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Old 08-02-2019 | 11:20 AM
  #189  
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Originally Posted by jamesholzhauer
There will be plenty of people bidding off the 190 to the 320 (and 220), so there will still be movement (imo) despite the reduction. But once it starts getting retired in large numbers, I think your point will be valid. That’s one reason being on a dying fleet isn’t desireable and why I bet upgrade remains quick.

You can still request a base trade on a monthly basis (24.N).

But yeah I agree this annual system bid is not cool. Apparently it only exists because the union insisted on keeping vacation if you have a change in status, so now vacation is bid right after the annual system bid. Forecasting it this far in advance was necessary from the company to get that piece of the CBA. At least that’s the story I heard. Seems like a lose/lose for the company and pilots doing it this way otherwise.
I don't think he was referring to a base trade (which is a very low-success way to change bases), instead the normal bid process. A person may not want to move today, but in 2-3 months, a base change might fit their life better. As it stands now, they won't have a chance until next August. Oh well.

This annual bid sucks, we know it sucks, and I suspect the planners know it sucks. I expect at least 4 supplementals to keep things moving in the right direction. IMO, 6 bids a year would work much better than what we have now, and perhaps better than a quarterly bid.
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Old 08-02-2019 | 12:14 PM
  #190  
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Originally Posted by jamesholzhauer
Ignore the vacancies. Look at the target numbers. They increase from 295 to 321 from the bid periods from 1/1 to 12/2. Yes, it shows an initial drop for the 1/1 period, but the last quarterly bid had 282 active pilots with a target of 296 (14 vacancies), some of which went unfilled. There will be plenty of people bidding out of FLL FO each period (and throughout the remainder of 2019), which will open backfill slots, plus the 26 new vacancies from this annual bid. There will be a decent amount of movement in FLL in the next 18 months, imo.
any idea about MCO?
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