April Adjustment Entitlement (AE)

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Quote: If you divide our share holders equity by the number of outstanding common shares from the 10K, each share is worth roughly $24. Delta would have to trade at a level significantly below that to extract value by dismantling. Our large share holders, Berkshire, Vanguard, PRIMEcap, Blackrock, and all the other mutual funds holding a significant amount would have to either sell or be in on it. I don’t see this as likely.
Well at least one of them just dumped a big chunk.
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Quote: Well at least one of them just dumped a big chunk.
13 million.. shares that is

He still owns almost 60 million shares though
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True but that is 20%. Most of any airline he owns.

plus, you wouldn’t want to sell all of them at once or you would tank the price.

just an interesting observation.

I’m sure he is just reducing his exposure because he sees greater opportunity elsewhere.
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I was surprised he bought as much as he did, he said 10% of any one company is his rule. This gets him back to that. I see other companies that are more attractive takeover targets right now but with the economy as it is it’s more risky now than ever.
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Quote: I was surprised he bought as much as he did, he said 10% of any one company is his rule. This gets him back to that. I see other companies that are more attractive takeover targets right now but with the economy as it is it’s more risky now than ever.
You are correct about his 10% rule. There are additional burdens for shareholders who have more than 10% of publicly traded companies. Berkshire was under the 10% threshold until Sleepy Burnback our CEO started "giving back" to the shareholders. The ensuing reduction of outstanding shares put BRK above the 10% threshold. Once above the 10% threshold, the reporting burden was triggered and BRK began acquiring more shares.

Bloomberg is behind a paywall, the Barrons article is not.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ke-by-accident
https://www.barrons.com/articles/war...ck-51552219150
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Word on the street- surplus bid to come
out this week
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Quote: Word on the street- surplus bid to come
out this week
Seems odd to me that they might try to manage pilot category sizes via a surplus bid prior to establishing or even discussing an early-out plan. It would also seem odd to me that an early out option would only make financial sense at some, but not all legacy carriers. What am I missing?

Might the surplus bid come with an accompanying option to select early retirement? This could be implemented much like bypass selection, and by my understanding not require any negotiation with ALPA. Perhaps the unpaid leave solicitation they just published today was the necessary square-filler (for non-union employee optics) before offering paid early retirements.

I am not optimistic that any early out offer will be industry-leading.
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Quote: Seems odd to me that they might try to manage pilot category sizes via a surplus bid prior to establishing or even discussing an early-out plan. It would also seem odd to me that an early out option would only make financial sense at some, but not all legacy carriers. What am I missing?

Might the surplus bid come with an accompanying option to select early retirement? This could be implemented much like bypass selection, and by my understanding not require any negotiation with ALPA. Perhaps the unpaid leave solicitation they just published today was the necessary square-filler (for non-union employee optics) before offering paid early retirements.

I am not optimistic that any early out offer will be industry-leading.
The quicker they get the displacement bid out/awarded, the quicker they can start converting to lower paying categories. They’d also prefer to pay early outs/SILs at lower pay rates as well. The real goal is to get the displacements rolling. As network gets a better grip on summer 2021 expect further displacements to staff for summer 2021.

JMHO of course!
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Quote: This will all come down to one question: what is the new target seniority list size?

It was a 15,000 pilot airline a few months ago.

It isn't now and won't be in the next two years. The virus could end today, the damage is already done.

I wouldn't be surprised if the new goal is to have 10,000 pilots. Maybe 12,000. Who knows, maybe 9,000.

Whatever the new projected categories for next spring add up to, plus a percentage for non-active status, is what will drive this AE and determine how badly the overstaffing situation is.

If the new goal was 10,000 pilots for instance, they'd be stupid to furlough below around 11,500 because of the upcoming attrition off the top.
They have no idea what the fleet makeup will be because no one knows when the revenue wIll return. The bid will do the obvious as far as the MD88’s. The rest won’t be defined until fall. Probably some reductions in most categories. Several more bids will follow as they define the future.
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Not sure there will be any "advance" in the "entitlement" if they do post something this month. Good news is they will have 365 days to convert if they want to. 😁🙄😞
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