Respect and civility, often sorely missing on anonymous forums. Compliments to both.

😂😂 I don’t mind people looking at me with utter contempt as I drink free beer and eat free pizza.

Newly updated chart. I included data from Open Table (the restaurant reservation service) to see how it relates to our industry. From Open Table: "This data shows year-over-year seated diners at restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins." The rest of the info is pretty self-explanatory. Data for the number of reopened states from https://www.governing.com/now/Reopen...-Way-Back.html

22 May.jpg

WAG: Losing $20M per day, if the average revenue is $100 per pax you need 200,000 pax per day to break even, currently running around 2000 flights per day, so 100 pax per 180 available seats is 55% load factor to break even.
Realistically I don’t think revenues are close to $100/pax, and the numbers are only good while the future tax payers pay our current salaries.

it’s probably not $100 per pax but cargo is up quite a bit so that helps get there

The fact that SWA is still running capacity at 60%-70% below normal is very alarming. Going into the busiest season of the year. That goes for all airlines. Capacity will be an important gauge going forward. All the other numbers are metrics that can't be analyzed until July earnings release(or lack their of). Real metrics to follow going forward are cash flow and capacity. All other metrics, CASM/yield/average airfare, breakeven load factor, etc are all distorted due to grounding of so many airplanes. Airlines are capping capacity well below the airplanes ability. Basically SWA as well as others are adding capacity to make passengers feel safe. Not because its profitable. Bizarre to say the least. Their is a reason why Buffet bailed on airlines.

Even if they ran all their airplanes and capped it at 60-65% capacity for sale, that's still 35-40 below what the should be. Companies can last a long time with positive cash flow. Pan Am, TWA, etc lasted many decades losing money but still had cash(flow) coming in. If we can get to about a million a day going through the TSA by mid July I think that helps build confidence not only for passengers that flying is safe and places are open, executive management teams will have confidence to minimize furloughs. I hope.

I agree. There simply is no metric to measure this by.

Today's company comms said that they are trying to stimulate demand and preserve cash flow. They haven't even begun taking steps yet to become profitable again. Hopefully the trend of a parabolic recovery will continue. Otherwise, I think we will be a completely different airline a year from now.

That's simply not true. I distinctly remember them on the release or some other piece of paperwork and I've been here well less than a decade. Not that it means anything in today's circumstance, but it did hover around 60-62%. I remember being surprised it was so low. It mysteriously disappeared slightly before or after TA1 failed.

Here are ten years of financial statements from SWA.

http://www.southwestairlinesinvestor...l%20Report.pdf

Page 45

http://www.southwestairlinesinvestor...ar/ar-2014.pdf

page 46

Break even load factor is CASM/yield in cents. In all those years they have been in the mid 70's. Now, they may given you a more "pure" breakeven load factor number. Taking out things like profit sharing(yes thats considered a cost), hedges and depreciation but the numbers are the numbers. Like you said though, it doesn't matter now. Just a mental exercise. Cash flow is the most important metric now. That will dictate many decisions in the fall.

Somebody cue up Grammar Kitty!!