Concession discussions in our future?
05-21-2020 | 05:36 AM
#451
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So we I see we have 400 planes parked and we've cut capacity 30% going into the fall. We were overstaffed to begin with and have just shy of 10,000 pilots. (I have no idea how many are out on some sort of leave).
My simple math would indicate we would need to trim the list by 30%ish which would be roughly 3000 pilots. Even with a super sweet VSP, EETO, ETO, etc... I cannot imagine we would get anywhere near that number. Even if we took some sort of concessions (ALV, etc...) how do we not involuntary furloughs later this year?
I am a glass half full guy and an optimistic person overall. However, this is putting a lot of pressure on my positive outlook. What am I missing here? Truck driving school this fall maybe????
My simple math would indicate we would need to trim the list by 30%ish which would be roughly 3000 pilots. Even with a super sweet VSP, EETO, ETO, etc... I cannot imagine we would get anywhere near that number. Even if we took some sort of concessions (ALV, etc...) how do we not involuntary furloughs later this year?
I am a glass half full guy and an optimistic person overall. However, this is putting a lot of pressure on my positive outlook. What am I missing here? Truck driving school this fall maybe????
If we follow their model we would be 1,000-1,500 pilots overstaffed for Fall 2021. That number is hopefully attainable with voluntary measures. With the cash pile SWA has and their typical aggressive nature I’m optimistic that there will be no furloughs. Just look at how much more of a schedule we are flying now compared to the competition. In some cases we are the only option.
05-21-2020 | 06:16 AM
#452
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Nov 2019
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Theres only 150 or so in long term storage. The rest are in and out of short term to avoid Mx costs of getting them airworthy. We had 400 parked when we were doing 1500 flights a day. Logic says you’ll need more planes when you are flying 2800 a day (70% of normal schedule).
I guess the avg flights per airplane to be about 5/day. At 2800 flights a day that equals 560 airframes...200 or so less than we were operating pre-pandemic. If they’re going to operate planes 60% full to give people the warm fuzzies, then they’ll need extra sections as flights “fill” up. It’s stupid to buy people off a plane with empty seats when you’re worried about losing money.
Demand will get better as states and attractions reopen. All my neighbors have already bought tickets for June/July since they’re tired of being at home.
I guess the avg flights per airplane to be about 5/day. At 2800 flights a day that equals 560 airframes...200 or so less than we were operating pre-pandemic. If they’re going to operate planes 60% full to give people the warm fuzzies, then they’ll need extra sections as flights “fill” up. It’s stupid to buy people off a plane with empty seats when you’re worried about losing money.
Demand will get better as states and attractions reopen. All my neighbors have already bought tickets for June/July since they’re tired of being at home.
05-21-2020 | 06:30 AM
#453
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From: The right seat
So we’re 3,000 pilots overstaffed in fall 2020, roughly 30% based on our forecasted schedule. Delta estimated that they would be 7,000 pilots overstaffed in fall, roughly 50%. They also indicated that they would plan their staffing based on fall of 2021 which would be 2,500-3,500 overstaffed. Makes sense not to furlough based on this Q4 given that people will need to be recalled fairly quickly. It also makes sense that they are more overstaffed and will have a slower recovery because of their international exposure.
If we follow their model we would be 1,000-1,500 pilots overstaffed for Fall 2021. That number is hopefully attainable with voluntary measures. With the cash pile SWA has and their typical aggressive nature I’m optimistic that there will be no furloughs. Just look at how much more of a schedule we are flying now compared to the competition. In some cases we are the only option.
If we follow their model we would be 1,000-1,500 pilots overstaffed for Fall 2021. That number is hopefully attainable with voluntary measures. With the cash pile SWA has and their typical aggressive nature I’m optimistic that there will be no furloughs. Just look at how much more of a schedule we are flying now compared to the competition. In some cases we are the only option.
05-21-2020 | 06:34 AM
#454
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Joined: Oct 2006
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The parked planes at airports all over the country are flying. They’re rotated in and out every day to keep from sitting too long costing extra $ in mx. If demand picks up its easy to tow it to a gate and fly an extra section.
05-21-2020 | 06:38 AM
#455
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Yeah I was including the MAX in my numbers since they’re “supposed” to be back in Fall. I couldn’t find anything on planned or accelerated aircraft retirements which will likely stay parked given the current situation. Will be telling yo see how many bite on the new leave options next month.
05-21-2020 | 06:44 AM
#456
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Joined: Mar 2011
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Yeah I was including the MAX in my numbers since they’re “supposed” to be back in Fall. I couldn’t find anything on planned or accelerated aircraft retirements which will likely stay parked given the current situation. Will be telling yo see how many bite on the new leave options next month.
I'd imagine they're modeling different situations like that.
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05-21-2020 | 07:15 AM
#458
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05-21-2020 | 07:16 AM
#459
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The numbers, straight from executive level leaders and flight ops leaders...
106 aircraft in long term storage, mostly older 700s or 700s nearing time for heavy checks. 240 aircraft that are being cycled through the system so that every one is flown at least every 14 days. When the MAX returns, many of the aircraft in long term storage will be permanently retired. When all Max's currently parked and those scheduled for delivery in 2020 and 2021 are on property, the plan is for the fleet to be at the level it was going in to 2020...approx 750.
That's the best case plan. Time will tell.
106 aircraft in long term storage, mostly older 700s or 700s nearing time for heavy checks. 240 aircraft that are being cycled through the system so that every one is flown at least every 14 days. When the MAX returns, many of the aircraft in long term storage will be permanently retired. When all Max's currently parked and those scheduled for delivery in 2020 and 2021 are on property, the plan is for the fleet to be at the level it was going in to 2020...approx 750.
That's the best case plan. Time will tell.
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