You're a good man.


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We are out own worst enemies regardless of where we sit on the list.


So would I.

 

So we I see we have 400 planes parked and we've cut capacity 30% going into the fall. We were overstaffed to begin with and have just shy of 10,000 pilots. (I have no idea how many are out on some sort of leave).

My simple math would indicate we would need to trim the list by 30%ish which would be roughly 3000 pilots. Even with a super sweet VSP, EETO, ETO, etc... I cannot imagine we would get anywhere near that number. Even if we took some sort of concessions (ALV, etc...) how do we not involuntary furloughs later this year?

I am a glass half full guy and an optimistic person overall. However, this is putting a lot of pressure on my positive outlook. What am I missing here? Truck driving school this fall maybe????

 

Ppl are out traveling already, numbers are going up, I’m optimistic. I wonder what number is worth it to furlough considering the damage to brand and likely share price decrease. Can’t be the “we take care of people company” if we start furloughing massive numbers whilst having a ton of cash in the bank.

 

Where did you get 3000 pilots? 400 airplanes is 5600 pilots.


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400 planes are parked now...we won’t have 400 parked in the Fall. Gary said they’ve trimmed capacity by 30% for Fall. 30% of roughly 10k pilots is 3000. If bookings go way up this summer as things open they could always add more flights.

I think we run fat for awhile and see how bookings and demand goes. No point in laying off people if you just bring some right back. If things don’t look better by Spring/Summer 2021 we’ll be hurting and need some kind of personnel changes. Curious to also see how many will take the long term leave, early outs, etc.

I’m usually half glass full though. Too many chess pieces left on the board to worry now.

 

Did some seniority list sleuthing.

Not counting ETO people we have around 620 that are on some form of long term leave: sick, military, union, etc.

Theres 9879 pilots on the list. Take out the 620 and you’ve got 9259 active pilots.

Assuming a furlough were to happen and the duration was 1 year, we’ll have 177 retire leaving us with around 9082 active pilots a year from now.

If Sept rolls around and bookings for Spring are still depressed and they keep 30% off the schedule we’d be overstaffed by 2700. If they decide to run a little fat just in case things change and cut 25% we’d be overstaffed by 2270.

I’d assume those in the military might look for a long term gig. Might have some take the early out depending on terms. Some might take a long term leave if they have a business or some other thing that want to do (looked like you’d retain benefits and some form of pay according to today’s email). Those numbers will obviously affect the bottom line as well.

With around 2 years of cash on hand there’s definitely room to wait and see vs making a drastic cut right away. Be curious what July and Aug looks like when cruises, beaches and Disney reopen.

 

what makes you say that. “fall” is 90 days away. they are gonna unpark 400 planes because of what ? pax counts ?

 

Theres only 150 or so in long term storage. The rest are in and out of short term to avoid Mx costs of getting them airworthy. We had 400 parked when we were doing 1500 flights a day. Logic says you’ll need more planes when you are flying 2800 a day (70% of normal schedule).

I guess the avg flights per airplane to be about 5/day. At 2800 flights a day that equals 560 airframes...200 or so less than we were operating pre-pandemic. If they’re going to operate planes 60% full to give people the warm fuzzies, then they’ll need extra sections as flights “fill” up. It’s stupid to buy people off a plane with empty seats when you’re worried about losing money.

Demand will get better as states and attractions reopen. All my neighbors have already bought tickets for June/July since they’re tired of being at home.

 

I think we were operating around 720 pre-pandemic with the 34 MAXs grounded. So I think this 70% number bring us back to utilizing all aircraft not in long-term storage. I also don't think the 70% number is set it stone.


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