There are a lot of guys with seniority horsepower and connections that are still managing to pull big totals. Of course, hindsight has made that game a little different. Being a commuter, my normal 120 a month has been unachievable. Luckily, I am budgeted for min guarantee, but we have had to put some discretionary spending on hold.

I am just trying to put myself in a 60 year old, senior guy's shoes. Come in and work a few turns a month, get a 15 percent retirement bump, and pay their ex wives alimony vs sit at home with no hobby and a FA wife who doesn't want to go to work, all for half pay or whatever they will get. I know what I would do.

Every time I go to the lounge in the morning (rare, but it happens), there are 10-12 non commuters sitting up there yapping about nonsense or brown nosing the chief pilots or watching Fox News and not getting paid to do so.
1. Everybody who knows me...please kill me if I ever get to that point.
2. Those guys live through this job. Take that away and a month later their photo is on the death door in Houston.

As for the stuffed 401k, for every guy or gal who played smart money and has their stuff in age appropriate funds, there is an idiot who didn't and now wants to bid open time while others are furloughed to "make up for the retirement hit". Yes, that conversation is actually taking place on the SWAPA forum.

 

wait....there’s people who go hang out in the lounge on a day off?

Hahahahahahahahaha

Haven’t noticed that in DEN, but if you can’t find something to do in CO you have issues.

 

Yep. I'd be furious if I were jr. at SWA and resources were being paid to people who have not flown in years. Not just $$ resources (paid vacation and health benefits) but they still bid their schedules every month, let me correct that: their buddies bid their schedules every month so as to barter off those senior trips to their friends. These people literally do nothing year after year, they don't even manage their own bids.

Make them fly minimums each month and watch them all suddenly retire.

 

Agreed.

The early out offer is gonna have to be somewhat lucrative for anyone (that doesn't have a trust fund etc. ) to take it.

And we all know it won't be.

Last time, it was around $130k lump sum payout for a topped out Capt. I can't recall the other details, but I don't think anything else they offered made up for it, and there were very few takers.

Then again, I was surprised at the number of folks who took the ETO, so who knows?

 

Dude I completely agree. In typical SWA "fairness", they will make it underwhelming. The only way I could see someone taking it is if they have health issues or if they started here late in life and are sick of bidding a junior captain line or possibly facing downgrade and just want to go fishing.

I will be amazed if it is an offer that more than a few pilots take, but maybe that is their intent after all.

 

Exactly. I realize that we are all sitting here with a big basket of "hope" waiting for scraps of info.

I kind of wish we could see a projection for fall and summer 2021? Even if they need to give us various scenarios based on demand assumptions. (<30%, 30%-60%, >60%)

If I'm getting furloughed in October I want to make as much money as possible, -or- start applying for another job and take a leave of absence to take it if I am lucky enough to find one.

If not, I want to take the ETO line to try and save some other schlep's job.


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Zap, you have 3141 under you on the MSL(one of which is me).
I think you'll be fine (knock on wood).

 

While I appreciate your optimism, (but wish you wouldn't have used an exact number on a public forum) Your guess is no better than mine. We need some actual planned numbers from Dallas.


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For what’s it worth I spoken with the union reps, members of the NC, and chief pilots. No one is actually even talking about furloughs or numbers even. I am as frustrated as you are because I would like to see a projection as well. Most people are saying SWA is looking to hang on making sure that they are not being irrational and jumping the gun! I get that I truly do. But I also think every pilot has been in this industry long enough to read the tea leaves themselves. If flying is only 50% of what it was and we are only flying 50% of our jets. Then you can start to do some math to get a rough idea. It doesn’t help when you have places (the blue states) that plan to keep their states closed for business. Heck California is literally the 8th largest economy they say in the world. We need these states open to get a better idea of where travel truly is. That will show us how many people have been economically hurt by this which translates to their spending. I honestly would be shocked if we don’t furlough!! I recently said and I truly mean this. if we do not furlough going forward I will end up being one those old guys I use to fly with telling them don’t worry the company will take care of us. Everyone knows we were already overmanned because of the max going into this. This just literally multiplied how bad it got for everyone of us. Maybe we will have enough pilots taking early out and ETO’s to stave off any furloughs who knows.

 

I have posted this theory somewhere else, but it appears that two camps have emerged in the industry.

SWA and AA are posturing for a V or at least W shaped demand recovery. DL and UA are posturing for a flat recovery trajectory. In the end it's all a gamble. AA has little to lose since it is screwed if demand doesn't come back relatively quickly since their cash runway is relatively short. I trust our leaders at SWA, but I sure wish I knew what their "plan B" entails.