he did, why?

The trend is downward.

Hoping none of y'all join us Compass and TSA folks that already lost their jobs. But if you only get furloughed at least you'll have a job to go back to eventually. Still, hope it doesn't come to that.

That plan is already changing.

I think people were getting too ahead of themselves even just a few weeks ago. I've been watching the TSA numbers every few days and while there is clear demand, those saying in other threads that we'd hit close to last years numbers by the end of this year aren't seeing what's going on in the world.

First off, I still don't understand why many are aiming for 2019 numbers. 2019 was an absolute record all time high for air travel. Airlines couldn't get airplanes fast enough to meet demands, and walking through some airports you were stuck shoulder to shoulder with the pax. Those numbers also include a network of international flying, which doesn't exist right now. I don't have international travel numbers off hand, but I bet quite a bit of that 2mil/day average came from people connecting to/from other parts of the world.

Those days are done, and using 2019 as a metric for today's world is setting yourself up for disappointment IMO.



Before southern states started shutting down again this past week, my hope was that we see 1-1.3 million by the holiday travel season this winter. If states mandate quarantine throughout the summer/fall than I'd be surprised to hit my guess of a bit over a million/day during that period.

I don't care what your view is, all I know is that our industry depends on the American public to stop acting like children and pay attention to the world outside of our borders. Everyone else is working together to try and contain this virus, yet here in the US we're complaining about mask wearing and politicizing everything. Until we can actually unite, instead of divide each other, I don't think things (like air travel in our case here) will bounce back as quickly as some hoped.

It’s the last known good configuration. We were record setting 2020 until Covid. So let’s reset defaults to the last backup.
Second, what goal would you rather airlines set? We all have goals to zero bleed, then gradual pickup to 2019-early 2020 numbers. But if you want less than that, there are dying airlines that may reach your subpar goal.

He actually makes a really good point about comparing this year to a record year. I don’t think any of us are privy to the exact numbers needed, but we do need to keep 2 things in mind in my opinion. The first is that each airline has a number of passengers needed to meet their targeted configuration (staffing to match loads). The second is that while we continue to try to pick ourselves up, we are indeed effected by the international market. More specifically, if other nations continue to deny US citizens entry or extended quarantine, then we’re going to see a lot of challenge to growth.

Yes it is
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c....htm#AgeAndSex

I’ve been wondering the same thing. Is there anything analogous to travel demand being this depressed for longer than this before? It’s significant. Cash bleed to zero is the primary metric that matters right now...

The 99% of airplanes that survive have good maintenance and two well-trained pilots up front. Think US aviation.

The 1% is the bush flying clap jobs that haven’t seen a mechanic in a decade.

Similar to that 1% of covid deaths being mostly elderly and sick in other ways.

So yes, I’d get on an airplane with a 99% survival rate. I do it every time I go to work.