Good, sounds like you guys should be able to secure some solid scope language using minimal negotiating capital to codify it in black and white then if it’s that easy.

3 to 1, 76 seat max, will be in the next contract.

Saw some numbers this morning, this should display the power of single fleet. If we exercise every option, should have a seniority list of 3,250 in 2025. I believe those numbers had some section 25 synergies baked in also. Quick swag, that would have us probably hiring 60 fall of 2023, 150 or so in 2024, and probably 260 in 2025 and 200 in 2026. Pretty dark water we’re staring through, right now that’s best case scenario also. 3,360 in 2026 as it looks right now.

That’s more optimistic than 3,000 pilots by year 3000

From your February 1st seniority number subtract 351 and that will give you a pretty good idea of your global seniority number end of 2026. Junior CA would be 8-9 range, most likely in that scenario.

Sounds about right, I counted prior to Covid 388 age 65 retirements between 2021-2026.

Any ideas about a worst case situation for the anglers?

AS expects to take every option, there is a little flexibility built in the order, approximately 24 mos... which would push us towards 2028 to 287 aircraft. Good news 2027, 2028, 2029 are large retirement years. If current trends are true, +-260 will go over those three years. So if the options slip 24 mo’s, hiring projections may not as much as one would expect normally. Planning for this summer has been problematic, so planing 6-8 years out of something like this is difficult at best. Just giving everyone an idea. Obviously, I hope it’s way off. All things considered though, I think it will be pretty accurate. Many have asked... I would expect about 90ish E175’s in Alaska colors 2026-2028 timeframe.

Thanks for the insight

While I am not doubting the airplane/fleet predictions, I am reminded how in 2015/2016 everyone was saying starting 2020 and onwards would be the biggest hiring spree known to pilotkind, massive retirements, growth, etc. Then of course Covid came and things went haywire. Who knows what will happen. It does seem that about every 10 yrs there is a “serious” event in the industry. I really hope that Covid is the event for the 2020 decade (as in 2022-2029 go smoothly).

2 slight corrections...112 E-Jets split evenly between the two subcontractors and hiring starting 2024.