This answer really highlights the dilemma. Several of the posts I’ve seen from pilots making this tough decision were senior captains in their mid to late 30’s. That falls right in between leave and stay. I think if you are in that category and you see yourself as a legacy NB captain for the bulk of your remaining career then don’t go. As some have pointed out F9 12 year is $270 with 15% DC with a 75 hour guarantee. UA is $283 and AA is $278. If things keep going up your pay will be right in line with the legacies but probably lagging by a few years as they get new contracts and the trend going forward seems to be ULCC contracts reach current legacy pay only once they have reached the amendable date. So if you leave only to fly NB’s then I think that’s going through a lot of pain for no gain. However, once you hit year 12 at F9 you have no where to grow. You’ve maxed out your aviation career. From what I’ve been told you can make F9 12 year CA pay as a WB FO at a legacy and you still have to ability to upgrade to WB CA and make even more. The easiest thing to do is to do nothing. Then you eventually move out of the grey area and the older you get the less sense it makes to leave. It’s a really tough decision. You will look back no matter what decision you make and wonder had you done the opposite. Good luck. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out over the next 25-30 years. Who will be the lucky ones who chose to stay at a ULCC and who will be unlucky (bankruptcies, mergers, acquisitions). The people I know who made the jump did it a few years ago when the decision was less tough. Getting on early at a ULCC has been a blessing and a curse. I have a lot to lose by leaving (initially pay, being home everyday, the time commitment, vacation). Many of my friends who didn’t make the first jump to a ULCC available to them either went straight to a legacy several years later or went to a ULCC several years later and then made the easy decision to leave a ULCC FO seat. This probably doesn’t help much.

This answer really highlights the dilemma. Several of the posts I’ve seen from pilots making this tough decision were senior captains in their mid to late 30’s. That falls right in between leave and stay. I think if you are in that category and you see yourself as a legacy NB captain for the bulk of your remaining career then don’t go. As some have pointed out F9 12 year is $270 with 15% DC with a 75 hour guarantee. UA is $283 and AA is $278. If things keep going up your pay will be right in line with the legacies but probably lagging by a few years as they get new contracts and the trend going forward seems to be ULCC contracts reach current legacy pay only once they have reached the amendable date. So if you leave only to fly NB’s then I think that’s going through a lot of pain for no gain. However, once you hit year 12 at F9 you have no where to grow. You’ve maxed out your aviation career. From what I’ve been told you can make F9 12 year CA pay as a WB FO at a legacy and you still have to ability to upgrade to WB CA and make even more. The easiest thing to do is to do nothing. Then you eventually move out of the grey area and the older you get the less sense it makes to leave. It’s a really tough decision. You will look back no matter what decision you make and wonder had you done the opposite. Good luck. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out over the next 25-30 years. Who will be the lucky ones who chose to stay at a ULCC and who will be unlucky (bankruptcies, mergers, acquisitions). The people I know who made the jump did it a few years ago when the decision was less tough. Getting on early at a ULCC has been a blessing and a curse. I have a lot to lose by leaving (initially pay, being home everyday, the time commitment, vacation). Many of my friends who didn’t make the first jump to a ULCC available to them either went straight to a legacy several years later or went to a ULCC several years later and then made the easy decision to leave a ULCC FO seat. This probably doesn’t help much.

Sure wish I could have been a senior Airbus captain in my late 30s. What a different industry we are in now. I'm sorry for sounding like a broken record but you younger pilots who think you have it so bad had a much easier ride than those of us who came before you.

Also if you're in your 30s you're an idiot for staying at a ULCC. Period. The legacies will advance pay in this cycle soon and again blow the ULCCs away. Also legacy pay is much more than pay rates (I know we ULCC pilots are used to only getting paid what we actually fly). Soft pay, profit sharing and DC all count. Go back and look at the year pay summary post if you don't believe me.

If you're over 50 think long and hard. If you're under go while you can and be ahead of this wave. You'll make a million more over your long career and retire a a very senior NB CA or a decent seniority WB CA at any of the big three.

Exactly. Pay -- ULCC vs. Legacy -- in terms of rates are considerably different but not enough to make a transition based on narrowbody flying. However, the Big 3 are all in Section 6 and AA looks like they may be the first one's with a new contract ... I suspect the disparity may be significant and this discussion becomes null and void. Sub-40, it's a no brainer to leave a ULCC. Over 40, well, it depends on your seat, seniority, and where you live and/or want to live.

just out of curiosity, anyone have a list of who is currently in negotiations and for how long.

One can’t really say that the disparity in pay rates right now can make it a tough decision, but in the same breath say that soon the legacies will renegotiate and blow ULCCs out of the water as if the ULCCs won’t be renegotiating soon after. Lucky for the ULCCs, they are after the legacies in the negotiating pattern. The gap will close again. I don’t anticipate the ULCCs beating legacies on hourly rates, but the gap likely won’t be “blowing anyone out of the water” for very long.

Using age 40 as the defining line is also a pretty bad marker as it’s not a hard line. What about someone who’s 37, 39 and a half or 40 years and a month. Personal situation adds a lot to the decision. Is someone single? Married? Kids? I’d argue that someone who is 45 and single is in a better position to make the jump to the bottom of a new seniority list than a 35 year old captain at a ULCC, living in base with good seniority, with a family who will go down with the ship if they find themselves furloughed from their quest to the golden ring. Seniority is life in this career. It’s very easy to get giddy about that dream legacy job with the mass hiring going on, but many economist predict a correction coming and we aren’t out of the woods with global covid hysteria yet - As of this morning, the evil “Deltacron” is a thing.

This isn’t a question of leaving a dying regional for a better job. It’s a big deal and a big decision to leave a 250k+ job with a good furlough cushion beneath you to the bottom of a new seniority list with a hope that it’ll work out. The “if you’re under 40 go immediately” is pretty simplified advice from people who aren’t going to be actually doing it themselves.

pretty much. You can relax on the deltacron. Apparently some doc in Cyprus cross contaminated two separate vials.

Everyone is, and has been for 2 years, except Atlas, UPS and Sun Country.

Don’t think spirit and frontier are. Jetblue has openers at the end of the month and amendable August 1st.

Did the OP leave for a legacy?