ULCC captain to Legacy?
12-23-2021, 08:51 AM
#91
Line Holder
Joined APC: Dec 2021
Posts: 86
Originally Posted by 250tothemarker
Just to be clear, you will not make it back to the same place within 'just a few years.' Lineholding captain takes quite a few years at a legacy, whereas you can be a senior lineholding captain at Frontier in about 6 years (on the east coast).
12-23-2021, 08:57 AM
#92
Moderator
Joined APC: Sep 2017
Position: MEC Chairman, Snack Basket Committee
Posts: 3,198
Originally Posted by Andy
RIght now, a United newhire can expect to be a junior lineholding CA in less than 2 years
I've quietly held your view on this.. Not only will upgrade times be squarely at 1 yr.. I don't even see rsv being longer than a couple years if you took the first upgrade in a junior base. 200 737s are a lot of airplanes, maybe replacements, maybe not, I dunno, but with the factors outlined in my post above, how can rsv be that long?
What will be interesting to see is what happens when the seat locks expire in 2022 for those WBFOs who took an upgrade to avoid rsv when the intl music stopped. If they go back to the good life of dozing for dollars, that could be a catalyst for even more NBCA movement. I plan on taking a quick upgrade. If I'm wrong about everything and it's the worst mistake I ever made, I can always try something else in 2 yrs. I live in base and rsv doesn't scare me.
12-23-2021, 09:36 AM
#93
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2018
Posts: 1,001
Originally Posted by MtoL
I signed up because I remember the stress your decision caused me.
I know of a few people who fit the bill of who you’d like to speak to. LCC CA’s and non-probie FO’s who’ve left to legacies. None of us were in our 20’s. It wasn’t an easy choice for any of us. We all came from what we considered great airlines. There were some rocky moments in that first year when we had the “what have I done?” moments, but a few years on, and those have passed. The QOL is the same, or better. The opportunities to try different kinds of flying are there. Those doesn’t really exist at a LCC, because of single fleet types. The pay is better as well- remember, it’s not all about hourly rates. You can see from the 2021 salary thread that it’s very possible to make LCC CA pay as a NB legacy FO. You’d also get better benefits overall- not just flight benefits.
If you opt to stay at your LCC, you’ll obviously do very well financially, but the with the movement happening at the legacy carriers right now, if you jump ship, you’ll be right back to that place in the RHS within a few years, then you’ll get the chance to upgrade…
I know of a few people who fit the bill of who you’d like to speak to. LCC CA’s and non-probie FO’s who’ve left to legacies. None of us were in our 20’s. It wasn’t an easy choice for any of us. We all came from what we considered great airlines. There were some rocky moments in that first year when we had the “what have I done?” moments, but a few years on, and those have passed. The QOL is the same, or better. The opportunities to try different kinds of flying are there. Those doesn’t really exist at a LCC, because of single fleet types. The pay is better as well- remember, it’s not all about hourly rates. You can see from the 2021 salary thread that it’s very possible to make LCC CA pay as a NB legacy FO. You’d also get better benefits overall- not just flight benefits.
If you opt to stay at your LCC, you’ll obviously do very well financially, but the with the movement happening at the legacy carriers right now, if you jump ship, you’ll be right back to that place in the RHS within a few years, then you’ll get the chance to upgrade…
12-23-2021, 10:40 AM
#94
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: guppy CA
Posts: 5,160
Originally Posted by BobbyLeeSwagger
Andy, you're the first person I've read to come out with a specific forecast for this.. most seem to say "EnJoY ReSeRvE fOrEvER!"
I've quietly held your view on this.. Not only will upgrade times be squarely at 1 yr.. I don't even see rsv being longer than a couple years if you took the first upgrade in a junior base. 200 737s are a lot of airplanes, maybe replacements, maybe not, I dunno, but with the factors outlined in my post above, how can rsv be that long?
What will be interesting to see is what happens when the seat locks expire in 2022 for those WBFOs who took an upgrade to avoid rsv when the intl music stopped. If they go back to the good life of dozing for dollars, that could be a catalyst for even more NBCA movement. I plan on taking a quick upgrade. If I'm wrong about everything and it's the worst mistake I ever made, I can always try something else in 2 yrs. I live in base and rsv doesn't scare me.
I've quietly held your view on this.. Not only will upgrade times be squarely at 1 yr.. I don't even see rsv being longer than a couple years if you took the first upgrade in a junior base. 200 737s are a lot of airplanes, maybe replacements, maybe not, I dunno, but with the factors outlined in my post above, how can rsv be that long?
What will be interesting to see is what happens when the seat locks expire in 2022 for those WBFOs who took an upgrade to avoid rsv when the intl music stopped. If they go back to the good life of dozing for dollars, that could be a catalyst for even more NBCA movement. I plan on taking a quick upgrade. If I'm wrong about everything and it's the worst mistake I ever made, I can always try something else in 2 yrs. I live in base and rsv doesn't scare me.
There are likely to be a lot of NB CAs going back to WB FO when restrictions get lifted. I talked to someone going to Australia a few months ago. They're basically locked in their hotel rooms right now. So that trip went from very senior to something much less so. There are times I consider going back to WB FO; WB is a great life which is why it goes so senior.
You have to look back at some of Kirby's statements pre-Covid from when Oscar was still here. He said he was going to take on other carriers head on and not give up any markets. Especially domestic, especially to ULCCs. Wall Street didn't like his remarks at the time, but I am looking at all of this domestic growth and expect us to expand domestic flying and not walk away from any market no matter the competition.
NB CA is going to have to grow almost as much as NB FO is growing.
And then there are all of the retirements.
Given the above, I expect to see United grow as fast as pilots can be trained.
12-23-2021, 11:11 AM
#95
New Hire
Joined APC: Aug 2014
Position: A320 F/O
Posts: 6
I too am in a similar position. Early 30s ULCC CA/LCKA, low 40% company seniority, excellent QOL with all weekends and holidays off always, and interview invites from 2/3 legacies. Wouldn't be commuting for any of the jobs. Absolutely love my job, only updated my apps when I had to update my hours for MedXPress, and here we are. I too am finding myself thinking hard for reasons to leave as opposed to stay. Would never forgive myself if I left and didn't enjoy the new gig as much as this one. Interesting to see the quick progression at the legacies but my "wise old men" are advising me to be cautious. I don't personally think any of us can go wrong either way, but this is definitely the toughest call I've had to make in my career thus far, and I consider myself eternally blessed and lucky to be in this position despite the difficulty of the call. LCKA really transformed the job for me. I am really enjoying that part of it a lot. If I were an FO I'd probably bounce though, just because it would be easier re the financial and seniority aspect, assuming I were a junior FO.
12-23-2021, 01:05 PM
#96
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2012
Position: 1900D CA
Posts: 3,395
Y'all are putting an unreasonable amount of faith in the financial future of the legacy airlines.
What happens when the next recession hits? The ULCCs have proven themselves to be financially stronger in bad times. The Gov't provided such massive bailout money to the airlines we didn't experience any pain at all, but if they don't dish out the cash next time, the rainbows at the legacies can turn into dark clouds.
I'm not arguing that you shouldn't try to get on at a Legacy but a lot of the talk in this thread seems to be awfully optimistic about the future of companies with 10s of Billions in debt and fierce and ever growing competition. The legacies have fierce competition at nearly every level. Intl business travel is still way down and business have found is absolutely possible to conduct meetings virtually. Plus there is massive competition going to Europe and Hawaii. Domestically the legacies have to compete with SouthWest, Spirit & Frontier (with 50% the casm) and now startups.
The retirement numbers at the majors are a sure thing. The financial success of the legacies is not. If you are already 50% of the way up the seniority list at a ULCC you definitely need to think very hard about going back to the bottom
What happens when the next recession hits? The ULCCs have proven themselves to be financially stronger in bad times. The Gov't provided such massive bailout money to the airlines we didn't experience any pain at all, but if they don't dish out the cash next time, the rainbows at the legacies can turn into dark clouds.
I'm not arguing that you shouldn't try to get on at a Legacy but a lot of the talk in this thread seems to be awfully optimistic about the future of companies with 10s of Billions in debt and fierce and ever growing competition. The legacies have fierce competition at nearly every level. Intl business travel is still way down and business have found is absolutely possible to conduct meetings virtually. Plus there is massive competition going to Europe and Hawaii. Domestically the legacies have to compete with SouthWest, Spirit & Frontier (with 50% the casm) and now startups.
The retirement numbers at the majors are a sure thing. The financial success of the legacies is not. If you are already 50% of the way up the seniority list at a ULCC you definitely need to think very hard about going back to the bottom
12-23-2021, 01:16 PM
#97
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,269
ULCC captain to Legacy?
Originally Posted by saabdriver1
I too am in a similar position. Early 30s ULCC CA/LCKA, low 40% company seniority, excellent QOL with all weekends and holidays off always, and interview invites from 2/3 legacies. Wouldn't be commuting for any of the jobs. Absolutely love my job, only updated my apps when I had to update my hours for MedXPress, and here we are. I too am finding myself thinking hard for reasons to leave as opposed to stay. Would never forgive myself if I left and didn't enjoy the new gig as much as this one. Interesting to see the quick progression at the legacies but my "wise old men" are advising me to be cautious. I don't personally think any of us can go wrong either way, but this is definitely the toughest call I've had to make in my career thus far, and I consider myself eternally blessed and lucky to be in this position despite the difficulty of the call. LCKA really transformed the job for me. I am really enjoying that part of it a lot. If I were an FO I'd probably bounce though, just because it would be easier re the financial and seniority aspect, assuming I were a junior FO.
At least if you leave it will show your company how much leverage the pilots have. Check airman leaving would hopefully be a wake up call. One can dream…
12-23-2021, 01:56 PM
#98
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: guppy CA
Posts: 5,160
Originally Posted by Aero1900
Y'all are putting an unreasonable amount of faith in the financial future of the legacy airlines.
What happens when the next recession hits? The ULCCs have proven themselves to be financially stronger in bad times. The Gov't provided such massive bailout money to the airlines we didn't experience any pain at all, but if they don't dish out the cash next time, the rainbows at the legacies can turn into dark clouds.
I'm not arguing that you shouldn't try to get on at a Legacy but a lot of the talk in this thread seems to be awfully optimistic about the future of companies with 10s of Billions in debt and fierce and ever growing competition. The legacies have fierce competition at nearly every level. Intl business travel is still way down and business have found is absolutely possible to conduct meetings virtually. Plus there is massive competition going to Europe and Hawaii. Domestically the legacies have to compete with SouthWest, Spirit & Frontier (with 50% the casm) and now startups.
The retirement numbers at the majors are a sure thing. The financial success of the legacies is not. If you are already 50% of the way up the seniority list at a ULCC you definitely need to think very hard about going back to the bottom
What happens when the next recession hits? The ULCCs have proven themselves to be financially stronger in bad times. The Gov't provided such massive bailout money to the airlines we didn't experience any pain at all, but if they don't dish out the cash next time, the rainbows at the legacies can turn into dark clouds.
I'm not arguing that you shouldn't try to get on at a Legacy but a lot of the talk in this thread seems to be awfully optimistic about the future of companies with 10s of Billions in debt and fierce and ever growing competition. The legacies have fierce competition at nearly every level. Intl business travel is still way down and business have found is absolutely possible to conduct meetings virtually. Plus there is massive competition going to Europe and Hawaii. Domestically the legacies have to compete with SouthWest, Spirit & Frontier (with 50% the casm) and now startups.
The retirement numbers at the majors are a sure thing. The financial success of the legacies is not. If you are already 50% of the way up the seniority list at a ULCC you definitely need to think very hard about going back to the bottom
As far as debt levels, do you think the debt levels are much different at ULCCs than legacies? For instance, in their third quarter 10Q, Frontier had $3.676B in liabilities, including $2.053B in lease liabilities. Given the relative size of F9, I'd say they're carrying more debt relative to revenues than their legacy counterparts.
International competition: foreign carriers have been decimated. When Covid restrictions are lifted, the legacies will be printing money because there will be reduced competition from foreign carriers.
Business travel: perhaps it will take a bit for it to return, but I've listened to a LOT of complaints about Zoom and other virtual meetings on CNBC. Business travel may be reduced a little bit but it's not going away.
Finally, take a look at how many ULCC Captains are getting offers from legacies (and now debating on whether or not to jump ship). I haven't seen this level of poaching the ULCCs in the past. The regionals as a source of pilots for the majors is drying up; they're now starting to turn to the ULCCs. If ULCC Captains with offers at legacies decide to stay, that's fine. There are another two or three ULCC FOs that will make the move over to legacies.
12-23-2021, 02:16 PM
#100
Line Holder
Joined APC: Sep 2021
Posts: 67
Originally Posted by Andy
Respectfully, things have changed a bit at the legacies. They're no longer simply giving up city pairs to ULCCs.
As far as debt levels, do you think the debt levels are much different at ULCCs than legacies? For instance, in their third quarter 10Q, Frontier had $3.676B in liabilities, including $2.053B in lease liabilities. Given the relative size of F9, I'd say they're carrying more debt relative to revenues than their legacy counterparts.
International competition: foreign carriers have been decimated. When Covid restrictions are lifted, the legacies will be printing money because there will be reduced competition from foreign carriers.
Business travel: perhaps it will take a bit for it to return, but I've listened to a LOT of complaints about Zoom and other virtual meetings on CNBC. Business travel may be reduced a little bit but it's not going away.
Finally, take a look at how many ULCC Captains are getting offers from legacies (and now debating on whether or not to jump ship). I haven't seen this level of poaching the ULCCs in the past. The regionals as a source of pilots for the majors is drying up; they're now starting to turn to the ULCCs. If ULCC Captains with offers at legacies decide to stay, that's fine. There are another two or three ULCC FOs that will make the move over to legacies.
As far as debt levels, do you think the debt levels are much different at ULCCs than legacies? For instance, in their third quarter 10Q, Frontier had $3.676B in liabilities, including $2.053B in lease liabilities. Given the relative size of F9, I'd say they're carrying more debt relative to revenues than their legacy counterparts.
International competition: foreign carriers have been decimated. When Covid restrictions are lifted, the legacies will be printing money because there will be reduced competition from foreign carriers.
Business travel: perhaps it will take a bit for it to return, but I've listened to a LOT of complaints about Zoom and other virtual meetings on CNBC. Business travel may be reduced a little bit but it's not going away.
Finally, take a look at how many ULCC Captains are getting offers from legacies (and now debating on whether or not to jump ship). I haven't seen this level of poaching the ULCCs in the past. The regionals as a source of pilots for the majors is drying up; they're now starting to turn to the ULCCs. If ULCC Captains with offers at legacies decide to stay, that's fine. There are another two or three ULCC FOs that will make the move over to legacies.
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