I can certainly understand the wanting to stay local. I live 40 minutes from my YX base that I doubt would go anywhere, but I have 0 intention of staying fully aware I'll have to commute. Yes my family is important to me, but I know the track record here regarding bases. I can also provide a much better future for my family by getting out of here (retirement, profit sharing, pay). We all have our priorities though so I understand.

Who knows what the regional future looks like. If we were to get bought by mainline, one carrier is going to have to buy the other 2 out of ownership and that's not going to happen. Regionals will have to merge in the future if they want to survive, because bringing flying in house at the mainline level I would imagine is a last resort.

The one saving grace of YX is the airplane. We can do most routes they're flying at mainline and we own the planes which gives us some financial security.

As far as I know, no legacy owns part of Republic Airways. It is owned by the holding company, and has contracts to provide service for various customers. There are contracts with various legacy airlines involved, but no ownership.

I don't know the exact percentages but the legacies do own a piece of Republic. Not just contract.

That was part of the sham bankruptcy back in 2016, that allowed them to shed 50 seat flying. Each of the 3 majors ended up with a certain portion of the company, IIRC. But they were small percentages, from what I remember.

Of course there are no guarantees, even going to mainline or LCC and starting at the bottom you could be looking at furloughs if we get into a recession. I'll sit tight unless it starts to look rocky then I'll probably go somewhere like Flexjet or Atlas that offers home based options. I have other work options besides flying and other sources of income, so I'm not super worried about this.

My predictions/suggestions:

WOs will begin to cannibalize their competitors. The salaries may have peaked but bonuses haven't. Going to a WO is a better prospect now especially if there is flow. Throw in a $50k-$100k cash carrot and no one will even look at the other guys.
Non WOs will consolidate as a few of the weaker ones collapse. But I don't see a company that flies E-jets buying a company that flies RJs or vice versa. A bankruptcy however will flood the market with pilots for a while and stabilize the ones left standing, at least temporarily.
The non WOs should seriously consider diversifying. YX has built a brand new E-Jet training facility, why not start training competitor's pilots as well? And charge a premium for training and support? Heck, maybe even extend the LIFT program to competitors as well.
Non WOs might also consider competing directly with LCCs and pick up some A320s or similar, or combine with an LCC to offer expanded options to customers.

I also wouldn't be surprised if some shady back door deals happen that see some airlines agree not to recruit from each other. Completely illegal of course but it's happened in other industries.

Yes. Will they accept short-term financial pain in hopes that things will get back to normal-ish in 8-10 years and regional pilots will return to their traditional indentured servant role?

Some pertinent unknowns

1) if one major substantially reduces regional lift, how will the others respond

2) how would the rest of the industry respond to one or two carriers folding. If ShinyJet puts 1000 captains loose on the market will that stabilize things

The new payscales at the AA WO are not that much different than the pre-covid AA E190 payscales when they were still flying them mainline… how much can this really be hurting them financially?

Assuming the 190’s were profitable…. They’re now paying those rates for 50-76 seat jets

great point