The future of Regionals?
01-25-2023, 09:13 AM
#32
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Posts: 198
If you want to help the profession as a whole you should leave your regional. If FFD disappeared the world would be a better place for pilots. Anyone who stays at a regional in this environment does not care about the airline pilot profession as a whole. The opportunity to get rid of ffd is there but whether or not pilots take advantage of it is another question entirely.
01-25-2023, 09:18 AM
#33
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Originally Posted by mkitrn
If you want to help the profession as a whole you should leave your regional. If FFD disappeared the world would be a better place for pilots. Anyone who stays at a regional in this environment does not care about the airline pilot profession as a whole. The opportunity to get rid of ffd is there but whether or not pilots take advantage of it is another question entirely.
That's asking way too much, in fact it's ridiculous.
People will go on strike because they know...
1. There's a plan.
2. The union has their back.
3. The odds of liquidation and unemployment are low.
Expecting people to leave a regional before they're otherwise ready for some nebulous "betterment of the profession" is pretty far out there.
01-25-2023, 12:13 PM
#34
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Joined APC: Aug 2016
Posts: 147
There are a lot of relatively newer ERJs and CRJs at US regional operators. CRJ production ended with a 2021 delivery to SkyWest. ERJs are still in production. Point being, there is a lot of newer aircraft out there, and that is a lot of expensive equipment that needs to be paid for (whether they're owned by the regionals or their mainline partners).
If airlines are making payments on these airplanes, they're going to want them to keep flying and making money.
I think a good metric to watch will be what happens to the older RJs. A lot of CRJ-200s exiting service already. As older CRJs (CRJ-700s particularly) come up on their heavy checks, watch to see what the operators do. Expect to see those aircraft sent to the desert, rather than get an expensive heavy check.
As the numbers of active aircraft dwindle, that's when you'll see contraction in the ranks of regional operators. Some operators may go out of business. Others may merge with each other. Less likely, a wholly-owned may get absorbed by it's mainline partner.
If airlines are making payments on these airplanes, they're going to want them to keep flying and making money.
I think a good metric to watch will be what happens to the older RJs. A lot of CRJ-200s exiting service already. As older CRJs (CRJ-700s particularly) come up on their heavy checks, watch to see what the operators do. Expect to see those aircraft sent to the desert, rather than get an expensive heavy check.
As the numbers of active aircraft dwindle, that's when you'll see contraction in the ranks of regional operators. Some operators may go out of business. Others may merge with each other. Less likely, a wholly-owned may get absorbed by it's mainline partner.
01-25-2023, 01:11 PM
#36
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Originally Posted by ImSoSuss
01-25-2023, 01:18 PM
#37
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Originally Posted by rickair7777
Or regionals simply hire for CA's, with the clear expectation that upgrade is mandatory at X level of experience. Then apply reasonably high standards, and terminate those who fail, and those who "fail".
Skywest used to do that, the termination part. So did AA mainline... they actually had a mandatory upgrade requirement for a long time.
A business can do that, if necessary for staffing. Nuclear power plants rotate all ops workers through rotating shifts, so everybody does days, swings, and nights in rotation. That prevents the otherwise inevitable situation of having all the experienced people on the day shift, with amateur night on the backside.
Skywest used to do that, the termination part. So did AA mainline... they actually had a mandatory upgrade requirement for a long time.
A business can do that, if necessary for staffing. Nuclear power plants rotate all ops workers through rotating shifts, so everybody does days, swings, and nights in rotation. That prevents the otherwise inevitable situation of having all the experienced people on the day shift, with amateur night on the backside.
01-25-2023, 02:21 PM
#38
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Posts: 2,465
Originally Posted by rickair7777
Or regionals simply hire for CA's, with the clear expectation that upgrade is mandatory at X level of experience. Then apply reasonably high standards, and terminate those who fail, and those who "fail".
Skywest used to do that, the termination part. So did AA mainline... they actually had a mandatory upgrade requirement for a long time.
A business can do that, if necessary for staffing. Nuclear power plants rotate all ops workers through rotating shifts, so everybody does days, swings, and nights in rotation. That prevents the otherwise inevitable situation of having all the experienced people on the day shift, with amateur night on the backside.
Skywest used to do that, the termination part. So did AA mainline... they actually had a mandatory upgrade requirement for a long time.
A business can do that, if necessary for staffing. Nuclear power plants rotate all ops workers through rotating shifts, so everybody does days, swings, and nights in rotation. That prevents the otherwise inevitable situation of having all the experienced people on the day shift, with amateur night on the backside.
Fwiw, I agree with you that airlines should be hiring future captains and that there should be a reasonable expectation to upgrade. When I was hired at Envoy I was shocked to learn pilots could “FO to Flow” as they put it (they’ve since added a requirement to be a CA for a year). But regionals are forcing upgrades at minimum legal standards. Odds are there will eventually be an incident that involves one of these captains shortly after their training and, whether or not it’s even a real factor, the media will make it an issue. And so will the lawyers.
01-25-2023, 03:21 PM
#39
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Posts: 856
Originally Posted by highfarfast
Odds are there will eventually be an incident that involves one of these captains shortly after their training
01-25-2023, 04:16 PM
#40
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Posts: 2,465
Originally Posted by Brickfire
Maybe not. it's been a LONG time since a passenger died on a US 121 turbofan airframe because of a pilot. Less than 5 events in the last 30 years.
Do you really want to bet its later rather than sooner?
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