There are factors on each side of the issue with merit, but I'm in the "not yet" camp. My two hecto-pascals worth is that if DHL solidifies by the first quarter of '09 and we're pretty much at the bottom of the financial meltdown we won't. I believe that the last furlough threat was a negotiations tactic, so I don't factor that in. Geezerpalooza is a two edge sword, in that if it wasn't for them they wouldn't furlough, but considering the geezer paring restrictions furloughing would be problematic (thank God for augmented legs). And as Salty Dog has pointed out, our core business is so different from the passenger operations. The overwhelming majority of our domestic gateways have one plane in the morning and one at night. If volume is down 25% are they going to NOT run that airplane? I don't think so...they still have to make the core service unless virtually all economic activity ceases. As evidenced by the slight decrease in profit, they simply make a slightly less obscene amount of profit. As far as international ops they may consolidate and/or eliminate some legs (they have been cancelling the ANC-NGO-PVG occasionally and some SDF-ANC), but they don't seem to actually do it until shortly before the flight, so that just means more time off for the same pay .

I maintain that we'll be the last to put guys on the street, but that it certainly isn't impossible.

I think that there is ever going to be a furlough here, it will probably happen next year. I am hearing from gateways that DHL volume will not require additional lift. That being said, I do not see UPS keeping the 8's very much longer. Those guys cannot be absorbed into the system as far as I know. The question is, what happens to the 76's that may start coming next year? Will the order stand, or will they cancel? Could be a tough year for all of us in 09. Let's just hope we are all still around.

Not doubting you but where does the "we're fat a couple hundred pilots" come from? Is this what the company is saying (when/who)? Is this driven by over 60 guys staying on? I was told when the last class came through in Nov 07 that we still needed to hire more but peak was upon us and they couldnt train them...but that we were still short. I know Age65 passed the following month but was that enough suddenly make us 200+ fat?

Count me in as one of the very scared. Good financial points--I don't think we would get a full-effect OT ban, especially since the contract protects the 'scabs' (see other thread). I guess that's the best we could get with the last contract--I wouldn't expect the company to agree to more than what we got in that contract w/regards to an OT ban. Please don't turn this thread into a contract-bashing session...

With the 767s starting next year and the remainder of 400' s coming plus the fact that the opentime on each fleet is enough to create another 10 lines of flying which they would have to do if a furlough were mentioned. We actually would be 80-150 short.

Quit scaring the kids, THIS WON'T HAPPEN

nightrider

Where did you get your information on the 767 and 747 deliveries next year and thereafter? When is the Boeing strike going to be settled? After it is settled, what is the best Boeing can do WRT deliveries? Will UPS want the deliveries soonest, or will they want them delayed?

Could you provide some evidence to support what you believe will be opentime problems on each fleet if it is not picked up? Which fleets and seats are manned such that the reserves can handle any opentime under a ban? Which fleets are undermanned? Which are overmanned?

I haven't seen any evidence to support your statements, and would appreciate some supporting material.

For a starter, here is some data from previous opentime discussions.

During the 2003 ban, it was reported with great fanfare that the average system-wide open time pickup (the previous year) was about 7600 hours per pay period. However, we had system-wide reserve manning then of about 650 pilots. The 7600 hour figure reduces to fewer than 12 hours per pay period (or about 2 days of work) per reserve line. Based upon our normal reserve utilization, this is not a difficult obstacle for schedulers to overcome. Of course, contingency may have to make some equipment substitutions, the schedulers have to work harder, and the line builders have to get a lot more creative. That is what UPS pays them to do, and we have seen that they have gotten better at making the necessary adjustments each time we have tested them.

Just what we need, another UPS furlough thread. I am sure some of the management guys are really enjoying watching this, particularly the one that dropped the 300 pilot fat suggestion. All you can do is plan for the worst and hope for the best. Anything else is pure speculation. If they send out furlough notices you will know then and only then that we are going to furlough. At that point see if the hail marry the union can offer is enough to keep you on property. Is UPS going to furlough? There is only one sure answer, only time will tell!

Bring the managers into the IPA then furlough them!!! lol

If the total volume out /in of both Next day and second day to a gateway drops to what can be carried on one airplane, they will likely upgrade the second day and run it all through the next day sort.
They are currently moving the MD back into the states.

If they went down to a next day sort only and used the bigger aircraft they could reduce staffing to what it would take to cover the next day system by eliminating the second day sort.
This would cover the core system.

If volume drops off to this level thats when we will have a problem.

Remember that UPS staffs to what it will take to accomplish the task and not based on what the profit was last quarter.