I don't have a dog in this fight and you very well may be right, but I think you've got an overly pessimestic view.

Do you think that all the furloughs will come back?

Will everyone wait until 65 to retire?

Do you expect that no more Delta pilots will go on long term mil leave? (I personally know a couple who just did)

Don't you think at least a few Delta pilots will leave for FedEx/UCal/AMR etc. as hiring continues/picks up?

Can Delta handle all the training churn with retirements and new aircraft over the next couple years without any new hiring?


My personal view is that with all the above, upgauging, and my belief that Delta isn't gonna let the other legacy's get the jump on hiring from the talent pool it won't be longer than a year or so. Of course age 67/70, economic meltdown, or some other catastrophe could change all that.

Stitches,

Hopefully I am wrong with regard to my prediction of when Delta will need to hire. Nobody wants new pilots below them more than I do. (Sitting at the bottom of the list.)

With that being said, YES, there are many more variables to take into consideration than the 421 furloughs/MLOA individuals that I included in my post.

Delta has an excess number of pilots for the operation at this time. (Actually surprised the "F" word hasn't been talked about more. Where's Bucking Bar when you need him? ) IMHO, Delta management has made the decision to carry extra pilots on the list, instead of furloughs, due to our furlough protections, the ROI on a furloughed pilot (18 mos.), and being ready if this flat economy would ever turn around. (Sealed the fate of our economy on Nov. 6th, 2012.)

Is my number of 2015/2016 hiring wrong? Hopefully. Is it pessimistic? I don't know? I was hoping for hiring in 2013. (Actually had hoped for hiring in late 2012.) Instead of religiously checking my email, looking for the announcement of Delta commencing hiring, I've set what I think is a realistic date. As mentioned twice before, hopefully I'm wrong and they still need to hire by the end of this year, or for sure in 2014.

GJ

Anybody happen to look over the latest Investors Day presentation? Perhaps some are still missing the "minor point" of increasing the domestic fleet size by 70+ airplanes over the next 3 years.

Ok so this is a major forum. But some other regional numbers have been mentioned. Here is American Eagle numbers. Numbers were computed only to 1956 date of birth. Just cus I lost interest after that

2013-18
2014-19
2015-26
2016-13
2017-19
2018-23
2019-32
2020-36
2021-47

Total: 233 in 9 years
233/3100= 7.5%

Virgin numbers to come! Just got em. New spreadsheet JPG is coming.

AS=Alaska
AA=American
DL=Delta
FX=FedEx
UA=United
5X=UPS
US=US Airways
FL=AirTran
CX=Cathay Pacific
B6=JetBlue
WN=SouthWest
VX=Virgin

**An editing mistake was done on the 100% of American Eagle group retiring. Number should be 50.48%. Also, I got tired of calculating American Eagle and stopped at 2039

By combining my three pics, 66.33% of the pilots on property at the time these numbers were received will be forced to retire by 2047. And more or less is correct. But not every airline has data listed here to 2047.

The only accurate assumption that can be made "from these numbers" is 5063 pilots will be forced to retire by 2016.

Nice job. Thanks for the work.

So ballpark....22,700 pilots retiring from these carriers in the next 10 years. Aren't there about 19,000 pilots total at the regionals?

You do realize that "investor days" are held for the purposes of bringing in more big money institutional investors, don't you?
With greater than 10% airframe growth in these 3 years, there is zero mention of hiring. 10% would mean roughly 1,200 new pilots. Add in the early retirements and increased training due to 717s and you have hiring starting yesterday.
As they say in the investment world, "The trend is your friend.".

It doesn't take 3 years to train 1200 guys. Much less actually.